Georgi Vanyan: Every family has the desire for peace

Fifteen years after the 1994 ceasefire put the conflict over the disputed territory of Nagorno Karabakh on hold, reports that the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan might be moving closer to a final peace settlement have caught many unaware. The last time international mediators were as optimistic about the prospects for peace was in 2001 at Key West, Florida. However, no agreement materialized. This time round, many observers and regional analysts hope the situation will be different.

War in the early 1990s claimed around 30,000 lives and a million refugees and IDPs were forced to flee their homes. Armenian forces currently control around 14 percent of Azerbaijan, including Nagorno Karabakh itself, but skirmishes still regularly break out on the frontline. Indeed, with its newly found oil wealth translating into massive military spending, some analysts fear that Azerbaijan might wage a new and more devastating war if a peace deal is not signed in the near future.

Emotions run high in both countries, but given the ability of Azerbaijan’s president, Ilham Aliyev, to silence and suppress any dissent, the situation is of more concern in Armenia. Nationalist political groups are not only more established, but might well be joined by a newly-formed opposition coalition still reeling after it was brutally crushed following last year’s disputed presidential election. At the very least they hope that exploiting inherent fears about a peace deal will bring down the government.

In fact, argue many analysts, the Nagorno Karabakh conflict has defined local politics in Armenia and Azerbaijan since even before independence from the former Soviet Union was declared in 1991.

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