RFE: Is A New Russia-Georgia War On The Horizon?

RFE/RL analyzes the situation in Georgia as at least 50,000 opposition supporters rallied in the capital, Tbilisi. Some analysts believe that Russia might be gearing up for another war with its estranged ex-satellite in the South Caucasus, while others believe regime change is the order of the day, the article concludes.

[…]

Analysts say Russia would prefer to impose a so-called Armenia model on Georgia, a reference to Yerevan’s traditional fealty to Moscow in foreign affairs. At the very least, the Kremlin would like to return to the situation that existed prior to the 2003 Rose Revolution under former Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze, when Moscow had a virtual veto over key foreign-affairs cabinet posts.

[…]

Saakashvili and his allies, as well as several analysts, have alleged that opposition leader and former parliament speaker Nino Burjanadze — who has close ties to the pro-Kremlin Georgian diaspora in Moscow — is Russia’s preferred candidate for a pliant leader.

[…]

Russia is fiercely opposed to another leading opposition figure, former Ambassador to the United Nations Irakli Alasania, who has strong ties to the United States and would probably continue to steer Georgia in a pro-Western direction — albeit without Saakashvili’s trademark drama.

“They want a country whose foreign policy doesn’t veer too far from what Moscow wants,” Mitchell says.

“That’s what they want in Tbilisi. They’re not going to get it with a Saakashvili presidency. They’re not going to get it with an Alasania presidency. They might with some of the other members of the opposition.”

Photos: Russian checkpoint, Gori, Republic of Georgia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2008