Obama and the Armenian Question

Campaign promises should always be taken with a pinch of salt, perhaps, but the election of Barack Obama as the 44th President of the United States has many in Turkey concerned. In particular, Obama’s promise to recognize the massacre and deportation of as many as 1.5 million ethnic Armenians living in the then Ottoman Empire as genocide has Ankara worried.

Armenian-American lobbying groups in Washington are naturally in a frenzy with 24 April, the day traditionally marking the 1915-17 massacres, just around the corner. Although previous U.S. presidents had reneged on their own campaign promises to recognize the genocide, some groups such as the Armenian National Committee of America (ANCA) expect Obama to buck the trend set by his predecessors.

With the Obama-Biden Administration and new Congress now in place, we have the best opportunity in years to end Turkey’s gag-rule on American recognition of the Armenian Genocide.

We are, of course, looking forward to President Obama honoring his pledge to recognize the Armenian Genocide, and are turning to you to help build support for proper Congressional recognition of this crime against humanity.

There’s just one problem.

Following last year’s much publicized “football diplomacy,” many analysts and officials in both Yerevan and Ankara believe that relations between the two estranged neighbours could be normalized this year. Recognizing the genocide in the U.S., however, could not only set back such unprecedented progress, but also risks igniting a nationalist backlash in Turkey itself.

Turkey’s strategic importance for the U.S. also remains significant, and some would argue even more so in the aftermath of the August 2008 Russia-Georgia war. Normalized relations between Yerevan and Ankara, for example, would greatly assist efforts to negotiate a lasting peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan and provide a regional counter-balance to a resurgent Russia.

Writing for the German Marshall Fund’s Real Clear World, Amberin Zaman, The Economist’s Turkey correspondent (and coincidentally the wife of the U.S. Chargé d’Affaires in Armenia), summed up some of the other issues which will likely weigh on Obama’s mind, while also warning both Yerevan and Ankara not to be complacent.

The prevailing wisdom in Ankara, Yerevan […], and Washington alike is that […] no U.S. administration has been as predisposed to genocide recognition. […] Mindful of such dangers, Turkey last year revived attempts to make friends with Armenia and in September, Turkey’s president, Abdullah Gül, became the first Turkish leader to set foot in Armenia. Turkish and Armenian diplomats have been quietly working on a deal to establish formal relations and to re-open their common border […]. After some initial wobbles, Turkey is said to be ready to re-open the border and to go along with Armenia’s demands that the proposed historical commission be addressed within a broader set of bilateral issues. Turkey believes that all of this should stave off genocide recognition by the new U.S. administration. That is why hardliners within the Armenian Diaspora seem bent on stopping Turkey and Armenia from making peace. For all the conciliatory noises coming out of Yerevan, some Armenian decision-makers may believe that Obama’s victory means Armenia can push for even greater concessions from Turkey. That would be a gross miscalculation. For starters, if Obama is serious about tackling Afghanistan and pulling out of Iraq, then the United States will need Turkey more than ever before. Incirlik will probably be one of the main exit points for U.S. soldiers being rotated out of Iraq. Turkey has some 1,500 troops in Afghanistan; more could be tapped, though the Turks rule out any combat role. Indeed, many predict that once in office Obama will be more of a pragmatist than a liberal.

The new U.S. administration is therefore unlikely to make the genocide resolution a priority. […] Obama’s transition team should coax Armenia into accepting Turkey’s offer before its too late. At the same time, it should remind Turkey that the security card has its limits; the longer Turkey and Armenia remain at odds, the more likely it is that the genocide resolution will pass, and with it an opportunity to curb Russian influence and to bring calm and prosperity to the Caucasus.

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