Nagorno Karabakh: Progress Towards Peace?

Following much speculation surrounding a long anticipated breakthrough in negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan to agree upon a peace agreement to end the conflict over Nagorno Karabakh, Armenian President Serge Sargsyan convened a meeting with political forces behind closed doors to discuss recent developments. Despite demanding disclosure of the recent talks in Moscow as well as in Madrid last year, RFE/RL reports that representatives of most of the major parties making up the radical opposition led by former president Levon Ter-Petrossian chose not to attend.

Nearly all political parties making up the opposition Armenian National Congress (HAK) had refused to authorize their leaders to participate in the extended political ‘consultations’ focusing on the current stage and prospects in the settlement of a long-running dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan over an ethnic Armenian enclave that broke free of Baku’s control following a 1991-1994 war and has stayed de-facto independent since.

The Thursday consultations were held behind closed doors, with the president imposing a condition that participants use the information received at the meeting in their later public and political discourse without making direct references to the event speakers.

Stepanakert, Republic of Nagorno Karabakh © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 1994

Nevertheless, despite some opposition parties criticizing proceedings prior to the meeting, more moderate voices among Ter-Petrossian’s team such as People’s Party leader Stepan Demirchian welcomed Armenia’s stated position while minor parties such as the Hunchaks chose to instead allege that Sargsyan is ready to “sell out” the disputed territory.

Demirchian […] welcomed the principles of a Karabakh settlement that President Sarkisian had reportedly invoked during the closed discussions. Yet, the opposition member called for more clarity as far as details of such a settlement are concerned.

“An overland link with Armenia, strong security guarantees and the exercise of the right to self-determination – this is naturally a set of principles that one can expect to receive a positive response. But as far as I know, no discussion focused on the details of the ongoing negotiations, namely the so-called Madrid principles,” Demirchian told RFE/RL.

[…]

Lyudmila Sarkisian, of the Social-Democratic Hunchak Party, criticized Sarkisian for ‘making a splash’ by calling such a discussion.

“We have once again made sure that Sarkisian is trying to lie. It is clear that he has nothing to say to the people today and through this sort of consolidation of political forces he is simply trying to show to the outside world that he takes into account the opinion of the whole Armenian society,” she told RFE/RL.

[…]

Azerbaijani Prisoner of War, Stepanakert, Republic of Nagorno Karabakh © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 1994

RFE/RL also reports that another opposition political figure largely optimistic about the meeting was Heritage’s Anahit Bakhshian.

After the meeting that lasted for nearly five hours, Zharangutyun’s Anahit Bakhshian singled out Sarkisian’s assurances about a Karabakh problem solution that will “satisfy all strata of society.”

“The president said there will be a document that will satisfy the Armenian people,” she summarized to the media. “What is important to me is that he [Sarkisian] said there is no normal Armenian who would recognize Nagorno-Karabakh’s self-determination within Azerbaijan. I very much want to believe him no matter on what side of the political fence I am now.”

Stepanakert, Republic of Nagorno Karabakh © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 1994

Nevertheless, A1 Plus reports that some among Ter-Petrossian’s team such as Aram Manukyan continue to allege a “sell out” although critics would argue that some in opposition hope the public can be mobilized to remove Sargsyan from power on the basis of fears that Nagorno Karabakh’s independence would be lost in any deal. Ironically, it was Ter-Petrossian’s position that ultimately saw him resign in 1998.

Armenia’s President Levon Ter-Petrosian had revised his approach to the Karabakh problem since leading the Karabakh Committee in 1988, when he had been an advocate of reunification with Armenia. Under his presidency the Armenian government’s approach was to define the issue as the security of Nagorny Karabakh and its right to self-determination – not necessarily meaning the internationally unpopular goals of independence or reunification with Armenia. Ter-Petrosian sought a compromise where the Armenian side would concede that Nagorny Karabakh would be legally part of Azerbaijan; in return Azerbaijan would agree to a status above the nominal autonomy that the NKAO had enjoyed until 1988, but a notch below independence. Further, Azerbaijan would lift their blockades and provide strong security guarantees including Armenian control of the Lachin corridor and Armenia’s right to defend the status and people of the territory. It was also understood that as a result of any agreement on Karabakh, Turkey would agree to a normalization of relations with Armenia. Thus, Ter-Petrosian refused to recognize the NKAO’s unilateral declaration of independence and hoped that Azerbaijan would revise its goal of attaining complete control of Karabakh through military victory and ethnic cleansing. Azerbaijan’s obstinacy on settling the status issue on its own terms was mirrored by a similar insistence by the Karabakh authorities.

With nationalist groups such as that led by former military commander Zhirayr Sefilian unable to garner enough support at present to oppose any return of territory outside of Nagorno Karabakh regardless of an agreement on its status, it now remains to be seen whether Azerbaijan’s president, Ilham Aliyev, will convene a similar meeting in Baku. More importantly, there is also the need to encourage initiatives from civil society to prepare his population for peace.

And while the details based on certain principles will take some time to hammer out, the potential and possibilty for peace which would see the right to return for refugees and IDPs is there — if the political will is.

IDP, Berd, Tavoush Region, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2004