Nagorno Karabakh: Peace Deal Still Distant

While nationalists and pro-opposition parties alike continue to allege an imminent “sell-out” by Armenia in negotiations with Azerbaijan over the disputed territory of Nagorno Karabakh, those more familiar with the peace process instead say that a so-far elusive solution to the 20-year-old conflict still remains on the horizon.

While many can guess what probably constitutes the Madrid Principles, the difficult part remains in agreeing on the actual details which would include the return of territory and refugees, international security guarantees and how Karabakh’s final status would be determined.

However, while observers and analysts consider the recent Moscow declaration to be either a “small step forwards” or “meaningless and too vague,” the three Co-Chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group are cautiously optimistic, but stress that this does not mean a real breakthrough will occur anytime soon.

Instead, as mentioned by one anonymous source close to negotiations on The Caucasian Knot, the two presidents have managed to bridge some differences, especially in terms of personal relations and trust, that didn’t exist before. The potential is there, but only if confidence-building measures are taken seriously by their respective societies. RFE/RL has more.

The US negotiator denied the recent media speculations that the negotiations are months away from a big agreement and also that there is some secret protocol leading to a nontransparent set of commitments by Armenia.

“That’s absolutely untrue,” Bryza said. “There can be no secret protocols… I don’t sense either president is looking at the negotiations as an opportunity to make concessions as much as a new opportunity to see the conflict from the other president’s eyes and find a way to achieve what each president needs to gain agreement of their society.”

Bryza’s French and Russian counterparts similarly sounded cautiously optimistic about a future peace plan.

Meanwhile, highlighting the same position that Armenia has maintained for many years now, President Serge Sargsyan has once again reiterated where he stands in light of recent attempts by the opposition to mobilize the population against him. Many among former President Levon Ter-Petrossian’s supporters allege that Sargsyan is ready to make unilateral concessions under U.S. and European pressure to “legitimize” his presidency.

In remarks to Armenian Public Television at the weekend, President Serzh Sarkisian, visiting Nagorno-Karabakh, listed a number of key prerequisites that he said would be essential to reaching an agreement.

“The Karabakh problem can be solved only if Azerbaijan admits that the people of Karabakh have and can exercise their right to self-determination,” Sarkisian said. “And secondly, if Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia have a shared land border and the population of Nagorno-Karabakh receive strong guarantees of security.”

Azerbaijani Prisoner of War, Stepanakert, Republic of Nagorno Karabakh © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 1994