Nagorno Karabakh: OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs Arrive in Yerevan

RFE/RL reports the three co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group charged with the task of mediating between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the Nagorno Karabakh peace process are arriving in Yerevan after having already visited Baku.

The troika’s visit to the region comes less than two weeks after the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan, together with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, signed a declaration in Moscow pledging to continue and step up the prolonged search for a peaceful political solution to the long-running dispute.

Amid fresh international hopes for a breakthrough in Armenian-Azerbaijani peace talks Sarkisian left Moscow for Paris where he met with French President Nicholas Sarkozy and then visited Brussels for high-level meetings with European Union and NATO leaders.

The Moscow declaration, in particular, refers to the principles drafted by the Minsk Group and presented to the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan at the OSCE summit in Madrid in November 2007 as a likely basis for continued talks on a peace accord.

However, while some in the opposition allege that Armenia is ready to sign a deal by the end of the year, The Caucasian Knot has been informed by various diplomatic sources and others close to the negotiations that this view is not shared by the international community. Indeed, while the Moscow meeting is considered a step forward, the general consensus is that no peace deal is imminent.

Nevertheless, it is reported that the relationship between Aliyev and Sargsyan is much better that between the former and Kocharian. Even so, while the current stage of negotiations is considered a step forward, there are many issues and details which still need to be resolved.

Note that the Azeris have said almost nothing about the declaration. It also seems that neither the Minsk Group co-chairs nor the foreign ministers had anything to do with the declaration which was a joint text of the three presidents. A vague text with very little meat on it.

On the plus side this has locked the Azeris back into the negotiating framework and is providing some momentum which can be picked up on in the New Year. Also Point 5 explicitly commits the Azeris to confidence building measures that they’ve avoided in the past.

So still a long way from a breakthrough but some positive momentum. Turkish initiative is definitely positive and a positive element seems to be that the Russians are supportive of it.

Matthew Bryza, Tbilisi, Republic of Georgia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2008