Nagorno Karabakh: Internal Political Contradictions

Despite initial reactions to the declaration signed in Moscow by the Armenian, Azerbaijani and Russian presidents being lukewarm at best, the news continues to focus on what some observers hope will be a long anticipated breakthrough in talks to finally resolve the Nagorno Karabakh conflict.

But, while Armenian President Serge Sargsyan has indicated that territories surrounding the disputed territory will only be returned in exchange for an agreement on its status and international security guarantees, RFE/RL reports that one party in his coalition government effectively disagrees with the terms of the 1994 ceasefire agreement and various UN Security Council Resolutions which stipulate that they must be.

The presidents, in particular, referred to the principles drafted last year by the Minsk Group of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), an international format advancing settlement, in the context of further efforts towards reaching a negotiated peace.

Markarian told RFE/RL that some of the provisions of the so-called Madrid principles were unacceptable for the party and that Dashnaktsutyun, currently a governing coalition member party, presented its concerns to the president on this account still last year.

Meanwhile, although Nagorno Karabakh has never been a full member in negotiations, but rather an “interested party” with restricted rights — the Armenian opposition led by former president continue to maintain that it was and attack Sargsyan for his failure to include them in further talks. Moreover, RFE/RL also reports they threaten to resume street protests in the event of what they call an “unfavorable solution” to the conflict.

“If we find that the authorities’ steps jeopardize the Republic of Armenia or Nagorno-Karabakh, we will certainly restart our active efforts, including by means of public rallies,” he added

The opposition leader thinks that while any prolongation will lead to a further weakening of Armenia’s positions, it is still unacceptable to have a solution based on concessions rather than compromises.

The HHSh leader also repeated the opposition concerns that President Sarkisian might be inclined to make uncalled-for concessions in order to legitimize his rule in the eyes of the international community.

The isolation of Nagorno-Karabakh from the ongoing peace process is another point of concern for the opposition, he said.

“The current regime in Armenia has not made a single step to restore Nagorno-Karabakh’s status as a full-pledged participant in the negotiations,” Zurabian concluded.

However, while Sargsyan has made it clear Karabakh can never be part of Azerbaijan, it is unknown what Ter-Petrossian might consider to be “concessions” given his position on resolution of the conflict with Azerbaijan over Karabakh when he was in power. Ultimately, his readiness to make even more concessions than those attributed his successors forced him to resign. Some hope that the same will be true for Sargsyan.

Ter-Petrosian sought a compromise where the Armenian side would concede that Nagorny Karabakh would be legally part of Azerbaijan; in return Azerbaijan would agree to a status above the nominal autonomy that the NKAO had enjoyed until 1988, but a notch below independence. Further, Azerbaijan would lift their blockades and provide strong security guarantees including Armenian control of the Lachin corridor and Armenia’s right to defend the status and people of the territory. […]

[…]

[…] The basic formula for a negotiating strategy would be the return of territories for peace. […]

[…]

The result was the Minsk Group proposal of September 1997, which adopted the step-by-step approach. It left the question of status and the Lachin district to be dealt with in the future but offered solutions to the questions of occupied territories, blockades and refugees and proposed a peace treaty and normalization on that basis. […]

Malibeyli, Kashatagh Region (Armenian-controlled Republic of Azerbaijan) © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2001