Nagorno Karabakh: Peace Deal Obstacles
With momentum towards peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan reportedly increasing, domestic opinion within both countries, as well as in the disputed territory of Nagorno Karabakh itself, might once prevent any solution. Although minor nationalist groups inside Armenia oppose any return of territory outside of Karabakh proper (despite this being policy from day one in exchange for an agreement on status, as well as sipulated by the 1994 ceasefire), another issue has also been raised.
That is, although only ever afforded the restricted status of an “‘interested party,’” RFE/RL reports that the leader of the unrecognized and self-declared republic called for its involvement as a “full party” in the ongoing peace process. Indeed, this has always been part of the problem.
It is not possible to give a full account of the OSCE process’s weaknesses here. They included, among other things: the ambivalence of Nagorny Karabakh towards a process in which its representatives participated only as an ‘interested party’ rather than full member; unstable leadership of the process in the early years; uneven levels of interest among key group members, whose attention often shifted to other international crises, and their own self-interested dividedness and inability to exert concerted pressure on the conflicting parties;
To make matters worse, with the tendency to exploit the Karabakh conflict for political gain a perpetual feature of governments and opposition groups in both republics, it is perhaps not surprising to hear that one minor political party in Armenia appears to be doing just that.
The Social-Democratic Hunchak Party, which is a member of former President Levon Ter-Petrosian’s opposition alliance, issued a statement Monday criticizing President Serzh Sarkisian for formally ending the hopes of the unrecognized republic to regain its status as a party to the internationally mediated peace talks by signing a declaration, along with the presidents of Azerbaijan and Russia, calling for a direct dialogue between Yerevan and Baku.
However, as Nagorno Karabakh’s resistance to efforts by Ter-Petrossian to broker a deal scuppered past efforts, an invitation from Azerbaijan for it to become at least an accredited observer to the OSCE Minsk Group might seem a dangerous one, but could also prove a logical first step to overcoming remaining differences between all sides. It could also be taken as some kind of confidence building measure. Karabakh will always be dependent on Armenia’s support economically and militarily anyway.
On the other hand, Stepanakert has been able to influence the internal political process in Armenia to the detriment of the peace process in the past. Regardless, another obstacle is perhaps of more significance. Neither Yerevan, Baku or Stepanakert — nor their respective civil societies — have prepared Armenians and Azerbaijanis for peace or highlighted the need to compromise.
“The Armenian society is not prepared for a Karabakh solution based on the so-called Madrid principles. Since 1994, Azerbaijan’s society has not heard anything but calls for maintaining the country’s territorial integrity and threats to resolve the matter militarily, failing all other options. The population of Nagorno-Karabakh is not ready for a solution either. And if the peoples are not ready, the authorities cannot solve the problem.”
HALO Trust Battle Area Clearance (BAC), Fizuli, Armenian-controlled Republic of Azerbaijan © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2002
- Published:
- 11.11.08 / 4pm by Onnik
- Category:
- Armenia, Azerbaijan, Civil Society, Military, Nagorno Karabakh, News Briefs, OSCE, Opinion
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