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• Nagorno Karabakh: Peace Deal Still Distant
• The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict on YouTube
• Nagorno Karabakh: Internal Political Contradictions
• Nagorno Karabakh: Hopes and Fears
• Nagorno Karabakh: Armenian Bloggers on Moscow Declaration
• Nagorno Karabakh: Bishkek Protocol, 5 May 1994
• Vahan Hovannisian: Karabakh Must Participate in Peace Talks
• South Ossetia: What’s next, Nagorno-Karabakh or Nakhchivan?

1. Onnik 11.02.08 / 9pm

   Well, not much being reported at all. Just that a declaration was signed. What we now really need to know is what next, the details of any deal, and a proper informed discussion and preparing Armenians and Azerbaijanis for a compromise peace agreement.

   Still, it marks a step forward, one supposes. What matters now is what happens next.

   Moscow - The presidents of Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan have agreed to a peaceful solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in light of the recent war in Georgia. A declaration on calming the situation in the south Caucasus was signed by the presidents of the three countries Sunday in Moscow, the Interfax news agency cited the Kremlin as saying.

   Russian President Dmitri Medvedev had invited Armenian President Serge Sarkisian and Azerbaijani colleague Ilkham Aliyev to Moscow for negotiations over the issue.

   According to the declaration, it was incumbent upon the parties to follow international law in finding a solution to the conflict between Armenia, Azerbaijan, and the breakaway region of Nagorno- Karabakh following the August war in Georgia over its regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

   http://www.earthtimes.org/articles/show/239714,presidents-agree-peaceful-solution-to-nagorno-karabakh-conflict.html

   MAIN DORF CASTLE (Moscow region), November 2 (Itar-Tass) — The presidents of Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia signed a declaration on peaceful settlement of the Karabakh conflict in Moscow on Sunday.

   The declaration presents legally binding international guarantees to the Karabakh settlement process.

   Russian President Dmitry Medvedev read out the document in the presence of Presidents Ilham Aliyev and Serzh Sargsyan.

   “The presidents aim to improve the situation in the South Caucasus and confirm the importance of OSCE mediation and the need to support the peace settlement process with legally binding international guarantees,” the declaration runs.

   The presidents said they would continue to coordinate ways of political settlement and ordered their foreign ministers to step up the negotiations.

   http://www.itar-tass.com/eng/level2.html?NewsID=13235314&PageNum=0

   Armenia and Azerbaijan have signed a joint agreement aimed at resolving their dispute over the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh at talks near Moscow.

   Azeri President Ilham Aliyev and his Armenian counterpart, Serzh Sarkisian, agreed to intensify their efforts to find a political settlement.

   It is the first time in nearly 15 years that such a deal has been reached.

   Sporadic clashes have continued over Nagorno-Karabakh, despite the signing of a ceasefire agreement in 1994.

   It is internationally recognised as being part of Azerbaijan, but controlled by ethnic Armenians.

   Correspondents say Russia’s brief war with Georgia in August has given impetus to international efforts to resolve disputes in the Caucasus, a region where Moscow is seeking greater influence.

   http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7705067.stm
2. Onnik 11.02.08 / 10pm

   The declaration, although merely reiterating previous positions, is still a breakthrough. It is the first official document signed by Yerevan and Baku on the issue since the 1994 truce that ended the Nagorno-Karabakh war.

   The presidents of Russia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia last met to discuss a peace plan just over four years ago in Kazakhstan’s capital, Astana.

   […]

   The region has drawn increased diplomatic interest since Russia and Georgia went to war in August over another frozen conflict area, Georgia’s breakaway South Ossetia.

   During a visit to Yerevan on October 17, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Fried said a breakthrough on Nagorno-Karabakh was “possible” by year’s end.

   The war there claimed an estimated 30,000 lives and forced about 1 million people from their homes, most of whom are still unable to return. The two sides are still technically at war because no peace treaty has been signed and crossborder skirmishes are still common.

   The talks outside Moscow, which were proposed last month by Medvedev, are widely viewed as a renewed Kremlin effort to consolidate its influence in the energy-rich Caspian after its brief war with Georgia raised tensions throughout the region.

   http://www.rferl.org/content/Kremlin_Hosts_Peace_Talks_Over_NagornoKarabakh/1337420.html
3. Ani 11.02.08 / 11pm

   Well, the French reported that they “smiled and shook hands,” so that was something, I guess:

   http://www.france24.com/en/20081102-russia-hosts-talks-disputed-nagorny-karabakh-russia-caucasus&navi=MONDE

   At least the “cowboys” Putin, Bush, and Kocharyan weren’t in the picture, and if they can muffle Aliyev’s recent bellicosity, that’s a start. Really sort of disappointing, though, considering all that was made of this. Now, exactly what are the “Madrid Principles”???
4. Onnik 11.03.08 / 1am

   Yeah, all that way for a 200-word declaration that said nothing much.

   But the 200-word declaration avoided the main sticking point — the status of Nagorno-Karabakh itself — and did not go into detail about ways to resolve the conflict.

   The search for peace in the territory has long been scuppered by thorny issues such as the issue of the districts outside Nagorno-Karabakh that Armenian forces control. These areas were not mentioned in the declaration.

   http://www.boston.com/news/world/europe/articles/2008/11/02/armenia_and_azerbaijan_to_intensify_karabakh_talks/

   Still, we don’t know what’s going on behind the scenes and in a sense, the signing of a first document since the ceasefire is perhaps quite significant and symbolic?

   Dunno, but I would hope that there will be more transparency in terms of what’s being discussed now and a genuine effort to prepare the populations of both countries for peace.

   We’ve been lacking that for some time now although I suspect we’ll instead get increased activity from nationalists and elements in civil society and the media opposed to Sargsyan.

   Not sure about Azerbaijan. Seems like Aliyev is quite strong at the moment.
5. Onnik 11.03.08 / 1am

   Ani, what I don’t like in that France 24 report is the end:

   The Kremlin could strengthen its position in the region by pushing close ally Armenia toward compromise on the issue, analysts said.

   Sargsyan’s position at present is already stirring up the nationalists here and it’s unlikely that any more compromises can be made.

   What’s ironic is that the obstacle to a resolution is given as Armenia whereas others would argue that it’s Azerbaijan.

   Don’t know what the solution is, but I am thinking about a joke some Armenians told me a few years ago.

   A teacher is showing a map of the world where all the countries and continents are colored red. “Everything in red is Armenian territory,” the teacher says.

   A boy puts his hand up and asks “But what about that white area?”

   “That,” the teacher replies,”is Nagorno Karabakh.”

   Unfortunately, it seems that the longer the negotiations take, Armenia’s position weakens. I just wish all those opposed to a compromise peace deal in Armenia understood that.

   Anyways, let’s see if Medvedev’s push manages to get a deal based on these “Madrid Principles.” If that can be managed I’d like to see disclosure of these details over the next month.

   Moreover, I’d like to see a framework for a peace agreement signed not too long after. Again, however, it requires Aliyev to speak of compromise.
6. Onnik 11.03.08 / 1am

   On a brighter note, the video report on that France 24 page is more upbeat than the article.

   http://www.france24.com/en/20081102-russia-hosts-talks-disputed-nagorny-karabakh-russia-caucasus&navi=MONDE

   Dunno. Let’s see.
7. Onnik 11.03.08 / 5pm

   Real Armenia has posted its own unofficial translation of the document signed yesterday:

   The Declaration of the Republic of Azerbaijan, Armenia and the Russian Federation

   November 2008,
   Moscow Region, Castle Mayendorf

   The Declaration of the Republic of Azerbaijan, Armenia and the Russian Federation
   Presidents of Azerbaijan, Armenia and the Russian Federation, met on November 2nd, 2008 in Moscow at the invitation of President of the Russian Federation,
   subject and content discussed in an atmosphere of constructive state and prospects of settling the Nagorny Karabakh conflict by political means, through the continuation of direct dialogue between Azerbaijan and Armenia through the mediation of Russia, the United States and France as Co-Chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group,

   1. Declare that will help improve the situation in South Caucasus and the establishment of regional stability and security through a political settlement of the Nagorny Karabakh conflict on the basis of the principles and norms of international law and adopted in the framework of decisions and documents, which will create favorable conditions for economic development and all-round cooperation in the region.

   2. Reaffirm the importance of continuing the Co-Chairmen of the OSCE Minsk Group mediation efforts with regard to their meetings with the parties in Madrid on 29 November, 2007 and subsequent discussions with a view to further developing the basic principles of a political settlement.

   3. Agree that a peaceful settlement must be accompanied by a legally binding international guarantees all its aspects and stages.

   4. Note that the Presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia have agreed to continue the work, including through further contacts on the summit to agree a political settlement of the Nagorny Karabakh conflict and instructed their Ministers of Foreign Affairs to intensify further steps in the negotiation process in conjunction with the Co-Chairmen of the OSCE Minsk Group.

   5. I is important to encourage the creation of conditions for the implementation of confidence-building measures in the context of efforts to resolve.

   http://realarmenia.wordpress.com/2008/11/02/the-declaration-of-the-republic-of-azerbaijan-armenia-and-the-russian-federation/

   The original Russian is at:
   http://www.kremlin.ru/text/docs/2008/11/208670.shtml
8. Onnik 11.04.08 / 12am

   Well, so much for all of that. The Karabakh Peace Talks remind me now of Aesop’s fable about the boy who cried wolf. I certainly can’t listen to Bryza any more. How many “windows of opportunity” are there?

   Anyway, EurasiaNet has this on the response to the declaration in Baku.

   Russia is hailing a November 2 summit meeting with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict as a historic milestone, but, back in Azerbaijan, many analysts see the summit as having been more about stagecraft than about achieving breakthroughs.

   […]

   In Baku, the official reaction to the declaration was something less than excited. “There is no need to look for something new in signing of the document,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Khazar Ibrahim told journalists. “The talks still continue and the document indicates their significance. Foundation is needed to be laid to shift to next stage.”

   Azerbaijani analysts were similarly muted in their reaction. “So what?” commented former presidential foreign policy advisor Vafa Guluzade. The document, Guluzade argued, has no real value.

   […]

   Another Baku analyst agrees. “I think that Aliyev and Sargsyan signed this declaration only to satisfy Moscow,” commented Elhan Shahinoglu, head of the Atlas research center, a Baku-based think-tank. “Russia needed some success in its South Caucasus diplomacy after the conflict in Georgia and, therefore, was very active on the Nagorno-Karabakh issue in October,” he said.

   […]

   […] deeds mean more than words. And with the fundamental positions of Baku and Yerevan on Karabakh still unchanged, he noted, neither side seems prepared to make necessary compromises.

   http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/insight/articles/eav110308.shtml
9. West of Igdir 11.04.08 / 2am

   Haha boy who cried wolf indeed! I was SO sick of hearing about how close we were to a breakthrough sometime around 100 times ago. In fact I am so sick of anything just about anyone says about it and the developments that are happening. What, may I ask, qualifies as a development? I’m thinking that getting 1/10000th closer, give or take, must have because we’re nearing that many times someone has said something and while we are in sight according to them of a possible solution we ain’t there yet! The last thing Bryza said was a year or so ago when he ‘accidentally’ revealed the allegedly super-secret basis of the negiotiations which made Baku all angry because they weren’t supposed to say anything.
   Meanwhile I keep wondering how anything can be done without NK at the negotiating table, will not just Azerbaijan but Armenia too try to dictate a peace to them?
10. Onnik 11.04.08 / 2am

    Well, you know, at this stage I’m not even sure about the need for Karabakh’s involvement. If Azerbaijan is not willing to compromise in terms of the status of Karabakh then we’re not even getting off the starting block.

    These talks are just going round in circles and to be honest, Azerbaijan seems to just want to sit and wait it out by increasing its military spending and forcing Armenia to do the same.

    Of course, we don’t know what’s being said and agreed upon behind closed doors, but on the other hand, Aliyev’s words are hardly preparing Azerbaijan for peace let alone compromise.
11. Onnik 11.04.08 / 3pm

    Armenia and Azerbaijan seek peace over enclave

    Azerbaijan yesterday welcomed a thaw in relations with Armenia after the -presidents of the two countries pledged to find a political settlement to their 15-year conflict over the breakaway enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh.

    Nagorno-Karabakh, a mountainous enclave populated by ethnic Armenians, broke away from Azerbaijan during a violent war that followed the collapse of the Soviet Union. It has run its own affairs with support from Armenia, since a fragile ceasefire in 1994, although no state has recognised its independence.

    […]

    Khazar Ibrahim, a spokesman for Azerbaijan’s foreign ministry, said, “This is the first ever document about Nagorno-Karabakh signed by the two heads of state. If we use the document and take practical steps we have a chance to move forward.”

    He said Azerbaijan was prepared to consider allowing Nagorno-Karabakh some measure of self-determination, adding that “self-determination does not mean independence”.

    […]

    Azerbaijan has grown prosperous amid an oil boom, and has stepped up defence spending recently. However, the country has abandoned threats to retake Nagorno-Karabakh by force since the war in Georgia.

    […]

    Armenia is willing to consider returning to Azerbaijan some territories surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh captured during the war, but insists that the autonomy of Nagorno-Karabakh itself is not negotiable.

    Karlen Avetissian, Nagorno-Karabakh’s permanent envoy in Yerevan, the Armenian capital, said representatives of the mountain enclave wanted to be involved in negotiations about their fate. Like many in Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia, he expressed fears about spiralling Azerbajaini military spending in the absence of a peace deal between Yerevan and Baku following their conflict.

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b31468da-aa11-11dd-958b-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1
12. Armenia & the South Caucasus | The Caucasian Knot » Nagorno Karabakh: Peace Deal Still Elusive 11.18.08 / 3pm

    […] final status would be determined. However, while observers and analysts either consider the recent Moscow declaration to be either a “small step forwards” or “meaningless and too vague,” the […]

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