http://abc.az/eng/news_30_10_2008_28952.html

Russia’s efforts to control oil and gas supplies to Europe from the Caspian basin and central Asia could advance significantly at the weekend when the Kremlin hosts a summit meeting of the leaders of long-time south Caucasus rivals Azerbaijan and Armenia.

The talks, convened by President Dmitri Medvedev, are primarily aimed at settling the dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh, one of the region’s so-called frozen conflicts. In the early 1990s the two neighbours went to war over the enclave, which Azerbaijan regards as sovereign territory and which is currently controlled by ethnic Armenian forces.

Russia’s altruism should obviously be applauded. But Moscow’s peacemakers are probably more concerned with increasing their political and economic influence in the crucial energy corridor connecting Baku, Azerbaijan’s capital, with Georgia, Turkey and the west. This effort is seen by some regional experts as part of Russia’s broader attempt to re-establish Soviet era spheres of influence beyond its borders.

The Kremlin has been tirelessly wooing Azerbaijan’s Moscow-educated president, Ilham Aliyev. […]

[…]

Russia’s summer conflict with Georgia, though which key oil and gas pipelines to Turkey pass, and Europe’s vacillating response have also left Azerbaijan reconsidering its westward-leaning stance. After the Soviet Union’s collapse, Baku pursued links with the EU, encouraged investment by companies such as BP, and built ties to Nato.

But resentment about recent western neglect, particularly by the US, coupled with concerns about its reassertive northern neighbour and the impasse over Nagorno-Karabakh, is enticing Azerbaijan towards a Russian-dominated “Eurasian” sphere, said regional experts Borut Grgic and Alexandros Petersen in the Wall Street Journal.

[…]

Russia is working hard to keep Armenia on board, too. Medvedev went to Yerevan earlier this month and signed a sheaf of cooperation agreements. After meeting President Serge Sarkisian, the Russian leader said talks on settling Nagorno-Karabakh were at “an advanced stage”.

Russia’s diplomatic and economic offensive in the south Caucasus has not gone wholly unanswered. Turkey, with its own energy and security interests at stake, is in effect leading western mediation efforts over Nagorno-Karabakh - though getting little credit for it. President Abdullah Gul made a landmark visit to Armenia earlier this year in a bid to mend fences with an historic enemy. US envoys have also joined the fray.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/oct/30/russia-armenia-azerbaijan-nagorno

Regarding Turkey, however, this is something that might be happening. Indeed, some diplomats consider that improving ties with Ankara might result in pressure on Baku to accept a compromise deal.

Not sure when, but it’s possible in the future, I suppose.

Paul Goble: Russia doesn’t want an agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan
31.10.2008 15:13 GMT+04:00
/PanARMENIAN.Net/ The Russian government doesn’t want an agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, says Paul A. Goble, Director of Research and Publications at Azerbaijani Diplomatic Academy.

He suggests that President Dmitri Medvedev may have invited the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan to come to Moscow on Sunday for negotiations on the Nagorno Karabakh conflict partly as a way of demonstrating Russia’s preeminent position vis-a-vis the other Minsk Group countries. Goble says that, if Moscow decides it is in its greater interest to back Azerbaijan, there will be in his words a “possibility of movement.” But, he adds, Russia’s geopolitical calculations in the southern Caucasus have clearly changed, The Voice of America reports.

http://www.panarmenian.net/news/eng/?nid=27532

ARF Dashnaktustyun member Ruzanna Arakelyan isn’t that concerned over the Karabakh issue. She is more than confident that the Armenian leadership will never surrender the liberated territories. The Azeri press also instills confidence in her regarding the Karabakh conflict regulation.

“Today the print media and the radical opposition spread panic among the Armenian society connected with the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh issue and Armenia-Turkey relations. They raise rhetoric questions which are a little bit exaggerated and incompliant with the reality. The authorities haven’t even put the issue of the Karabakh conflict on the agenda of negotiations. If you follow the Azeri media you will see that there is no mention of any concession. When speaking about concessions Azeri media mostly quote their Armenian counterparts,” said Mrs. Arakelyan.

[…]

In reply to journalists’ question what the ARF Dashnaktsutyun will do if Serzh Sargsyan who is presently in Moscow makes an unfavourable decision for Armenia, Ruzanna Arakelyan said: “I hope Mr. Sargsyan won’t sign any document on surrendering the territories. Anyway, Dashnaktsutyun will not withdraw from the ruling coalition as we find it our mission to protect the state interests. […]

http://www.a1plus.am/en/?page=issue&iid=65691

Meanwhile, it would appear that the president is going to be a very busy man indeed. One can’t help but think this all has something to do with Karabakh

On November 2 Serzh Sargsyan will leave for Moscow, where he is expected to meet with the Presidents of Azerbaijan and Russia.

Then Serzh Sargsyan will leave Moscow for Paris to meet with his French counterpart Nicolas Sarkozy, the President of the French Senate Gerard Larcher and famous singer and public figure Charles Aznavour.

Serzh Sargsyan will leave Paris for Brussels, where he will have meetings with the Prime Minister of Belgium, the Presidents of Senate and the National Assembly. Serzh Sargsyan will have meetings with the President of the European Commission Jose Manuel Barroso, the Secretary General of the Council of Europe Javier Solana, NATO’s Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, President of the European Parliament Hans-Gert Pottering. The President will have a working dinner with EC Commissioner for External Relations and European Neighborhood Policy, Benita Ferrero-Waldner.

Serzh Sargsyan will meet the EU Commissioners for Justice, Trade and Transport. The Armenian President will meet representatives of the local Armenian community.

Before leaving for Moscow, Serzh Sargsyan today had a working dinner with diplomatic representatives of EU member states accredited in Armenia. A whole framework of issues of Armenia-EU relations was discussed.

http://www.a1plus.am/en/?page=issue&iid=65684

Nevertheless, the main obstacle to the prospect of a peace deal again remains Azerbaijan. Let’s see if Medvedev can be a little more influential.