Caucasus: U.S. Presidential Election Opinion

Social Science in the Caucasus examines the findings of a poll for The Economist which indicates that support for Republican presidential candidate John McCain is stronger than for his Democratic rival, Barack Obama, in the Republic of Georgia. With the poll also showing that support for Obama is stronger in Azerbaijan and Turkey despite his apparent pro-Armenian leanings, the blog explains why this might be.

McCain, of course, is popular in Georgia for having said “Today we all are Georgians” during the recent conflict. He has also previously visited the country, and apparently a missile was fired at his helicopter as he was flying over South Ossetia. His willingness to stand up to Russia, directly, makes him understandably popular in Georgia.

Now what puzzles us a little is that, according to The Economist, Obama apparently is more popular in Azerbaijan and Turkey. Is that really the case? Obama has been very outspoken about recognizing the Armenian genocide, and enjoys full support by the Armenian caucus, a sizable group of American legislators […]. So pronounced is this issue, that it has been described by The Atlantic as “McCain’s Armenia problem”). […]

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While Gallup has no data on Armenia and Azerbaijan, they have asked this question in Turkey and Georgia. And here lies one clue: in Turkey, 22% are pro-Obama, 8% pro-McCain. But 70% say they don’t know, or refuse to answer. In Turkey, at least, the popularity of Obama, is based on the majority not having made up its mind yet. […]