The Caucasus: At History’s Center

The Economist has published an article on the Caucasus which provides its readers with an overview of the volatile and unstable region. From the economy to the recent war between Georgia and Russia, it’s worth a read and also touches upon the state of democracy in all three republics. However, it should be noted that the presidential election in Azerbaijan is scheduled for 15 October and not at the weekend.

Next weekend Mr Aliev faces an election that the leading opposition candidates have boycotted. In a café, we meet one opposition leader who wanted to run, but he notes that elections are rigged, the opposition is harassed and the media is not free. Indeed, he suggests that things are a lot worse than they were in the days of Ilham’s father, Heidar, who ran the country from 1994 to 2003 before passing it on to his son like some oil-rich satrapy.

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The same is true of Georgia’s political scene. Russia’s bugbear, President Mikheil Saakashvili, is criticised by some for his authoritarian instincts—and by many more for apparently (and very unwisely) starting the August war with his decision to shell the South Ossetian capital, Tskhinvali, on the night of August 7th.

But he remains highly popular among voters, he won a presidential election earlier this year and his party has a large majority in parliament. Despite Russia’s trade embargo on Georgia, the economy is growing fast. This is, in short, a place that feels as if it is rapidly breaking away from its Soviet past and becoming part of the liberal, democratic West—something that is much less certain in the rest of the Caucasus.

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Mr Sarkisian seems secure enough in his job (though some rumours suggest that Mr Kocharian would like to come back). But his election as president last February was highly controversial. Independent election monitors were critical of its conduct, and the opposition candidate, Levon Ter-Petrossian, announced that the result had been fixed. He even brought his supporters out onto the streets of Yerevan. When the government suppressed the demonstrations, ten people were killed, and as many as 74 are still in jail.

We visit Mr Ter-Petrossian, the grand old man of Armenian politics, a former member of the Soviet politburo who became the independent country’s first president. Today he lives in a splendid timber house surrounded by beautiful grounds, right above Yerevan’s football stadium. Sitting in his garden, drinking tea, he insists that the election was falsified and calls the government deeply corrupt. When we tell him we have been told there are no political prisoners in Armenia, he laughs and says that Stalin said there were no political prisoners in the Soviet Union. But for all his charisma, it is hard to see him playing a big political role in future.