Azerbaijan: Post-Election Scenario

Despite the recent political unrest in Georgia and Armenia, some observers consider that the situation following the 15 October presidential election in Azerbaijan might be somewhat different. Given that the main opposition parties are boycotting the vote, the Institute for War & Peace Reporting has already concluded that the “only threat facing President Ilham Aliev is a possible low turnout on election-day.”

Azerbaijan’s Presidential Election agrees.

[…] the opposition’s boycott, stemming from their allegations of election impropriety in both the 2005 Parliamentary and 2003 Presidential elections, gives rise to the question of what will happen after the election? We can assume, based on Azerbaijan’s political history that the opposition parties will protest, but will they be relatively peaceful, like the protests of 2005 or more violent, similar to the protests of 2003’s election?

I’d contend that the overall tone of the protests will be peaceful for a few reasons. First, the government has cracked down on opposition following the 2003 election. Curbing free speech and free assembly, they forced the opposition parties to protest with strict regulations on time and place and denied a number of protest applications.

[…]

By boycotting the election, the opposition leaders also lose their credibility to protest the result, an implication that could also minimize the risk of violent protest as people can’t necessarily feel that their votes were stolen.

Letters in Bottles says that following post-election unrest in Armenia as well as the recent war between Russia and Georgia, such a reality might be welcomed by the West. “With so much instability in the one region […], […] a calm, even if undemocratic, election in Azerbaijan will be a happy signpost for the diplomats.”