Georgia: Military Confrontation in the South Caucasus

Related posts:

• Georgia: U.S. Warns Russia
• Georgia: G7 Condems Russia, U.S. Avoids Confrontation
• Georgia: Drone Shot Down Over Abkhazia
• Georgia: South Ossetia Ceasefire Broken
• Georgia: Russian Withdrawal?
• Georgia: The Blame Game
• Georgia: South Ossetia Update
• Georgia-Russia Tensions Escalate

1. Onnik 08.26.08 / 8pm

   Tensions have heightened further between the two powers with the growing presence of U.S. and Russian warships on the Black Sea. Two U.S. ships, including a destroyer, carrying humanitarian aid were heading for the port city of Poti, which still harbors a Russian military presence despite being outside the cease-fire’s “buffer zone.” RFE/RL’s Georgian Service correspondent Tea Absaridze, who is blogging every day from Poti, says Russian troops have attacked locals and engaged in widespread looting in the town.

   The deputy head of the Russian military’s General Staff, Colonel General Anatoly Nogovitsyn, who has previously questioned the nature of U.S. humanitarian aid, commented on the situation during a news conference in Moscow today.

   “The actions of Russian troops in the conflict zone are directed at the unconditional fulfillment of the obligations that were made. And that’s why the excessive level of activity of NATO naval forces in the Black Sea — that continues to increase its groupings in the area — is a cause for bewilderment,” Nogovitsyn said.

   Nogovitsyn also said ships of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet dropped anchor today off the Abkhaz capital of Sukhumi, with the task of taking “personnel, armaments, and military gear aboard and to transport them to Russia.” Earlier, Russian media had reported that Russian Naval ships, including the fleet’s flagship, the guided-missile cruiser “Moskva,” were conducting routine naval exercises on the sea.

   http://www.rferl.org/content/Russia_Recognizes_Abkhazia_South_Ossetia/1193932.html

   As for Georgia’s territorial integrity, it has clearly fallen victim to Moscow’s insistence that Georgia never join NATO. Before the war, Moscow tried to achieve this goal through the frozen conflicts. Now, despite the war, Moscow’s main aim is unchanged.

   The presence of Russian forces and the creation of buffer zones on Georgian territory will simply solidify the state of conflict and complicate Tbilisi’s efforts to join NATO. On the one hand, all NATO members have expressed solidarity with Georgia and are ready to offer help. On the other hand, granting NATO membership to a country entangled in a military confrontation with Russia will certainly not be easy. It is possible the United States might conclude a bilateral agreement with Georgia, similar to the one it concluded with Poland as part of the missile-defense accord.

   Moscow is also no doubt hoping that, with time, Georgians will become increasingly enraged about the losses of Abkhazia and South Ossetia and will replace Saakashvili with a leadership that is more acceptable to Russia. Moscow might facilitate this scenario by stimulating separatist feelings in Mingrelia and Ajara, which border Abkhazia. These efforts could lead to the disintegration of Georgia or, at least, to that country losing its access to the Black Sea.

   In order to counter such a scheme, the West would have to find quick and effective methods of integrating both Georgia and Ukraine into the Euro-Atlantic community.

   http://www.rferl.org/content/The_Looming_Diplomatic_War_Between_Russia_And_The_West/1193904.html
2. Onnik 08.27.08 / 12pm

   The BBC now reports that the British Foreign Secretary is becoming more and more vocal in his condemnation of the move by Russia.

   Foreign Secretary David Miliband will visit Ukraine later in an attempt to build the “widest possible coalition against Russian aggression”.
   The trip comes after Russia’s president formally recognised the independence of Georgia’s two breakaway regions.

   Mr Miliband has branded the move “unjustifiable and unacceptable”.

   Ukraine’s president Victor Yushchenko has described his country as a hostage in a war being waged by Russia against states in the former Soviet bloc.

   […]

   Mr Miliband’s visit comes after he urged Russia to “abide by international law” and to withdraw its troops to positions they held before the confrontation.

   […]

   He said Russia’s recognition of the breakaway regions “further inflames an already tense situation”.

   “It takes no account of the views of the hundreds of thousands of Georgians and others who have been forced to abandon their homes in the two territories,” he said.

   “We fully support Georgia’s independence and territorial integrity, which cannot be changed by decree from Moscow.”

   http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/7583486.stm
3. Onnik 08.27.08 / 12pm

   Meanwhile, the Russian president give his response to the BBC. Interestingly, there is still the perception that Medvedev is not number one in thr Kremlin despite his assurances that he is.

   He blamed what he called the Georgian regime’s attempted “genocide” of innocent Ossetians (never mind that the officially-declared death toll has dropped from thousands to a few hundred), which he claimed meant Georgia ought to forfeit its right to control the territory.

   He denied that declaring the two enclaves independent in anyway breached the spirit of the ceasefire document he had signed with French President Nicolas Sarkozy (which had identified as its sixth step international discussion on their future status).

   And he insisted that the presence of Russian troops deep inside Georgia’s territory, including around the port of Poti - nowhere near any buffer zone - was also allowed under the terms of the ceasefire.

   This was the only way, he claimed, that Russia could fulfil its peacekeeping role of guaranteeing security, to make sure that Georgia could not re-arm and start fighting again.

   […]

   One of my final questions was to ask: who really runs Russia? Mr Medvedev sat up tall and a note of self-importance entered his voice.

   “If any country allowed its military decisions to be taken by committee it would be disastrous,” he said.

   “And if you want to know who gave the order, let me tell you, there is only one commander-in-chief in Russia.”

   He was expecting the question. He enjoyed the answer.

   But I was left with the impression that somewhere Mr Medvedev was going through the motions - he didn’t really believe he is yet Number One in Russia.

   And it seemed that behind the scenes, Vladimir Putin, even if he has taken a backseat role on Georgia in recent days, nonetheless keeps his hand on the tiller.

   http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7583450.stm
4. Armenia & the South Caucasus | The Caucasian Knot » Blog Archive » Georgia: South Ossetia, Abkhazia Update 08.27.08 / 3pm

   […] however, while there is some caution in supporting Saakashvili as much as he would like, tensions between Russia and the West are increasing. The British Foreign Minister David Miliband has called for a coalition to be formed against […]

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