Georgia: Ethnic Cleansing and Russia’s Game Plan
The BBC reports that the Russian parliament will debate recognizing the independence of the two breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia following what was effectively a limited and short war with Georgia. Many suspect that Russian military action was planned with this in mind, especially after the precedent set with Kosovo.
A vote by parliamentarians on the status of Abkhazia and South Ossetia would not be binding on the Kremlin.
However, it could provide President Dmitry Medvedev with bargaining chips in talks with the West, analysts say.
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While they have enjoyed Russian economic and diplomatic support, and military protection, no foreign state has recognised them as independent states.
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Sergei Mironov, speaker of the upper chamber (the Federation Council), said on Friday that members were ready to recognise Abkhazia’s and South Ossetia’s independence “if the people of these regions wish and if there is an appropriate decision by the Russian president”.
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If there is a new vote now, the bill would be sent to the Kremlin for approval and if that goes ahead, the two provinces could apply to the United Nations for recognition, which would almost certainly be vetoed in the Security Council.
They could also ask for support from Russia’s allies from as far afield as Venezuela and Cuba, our correspondent notes.
Analysts say the two new aspirant nations could either end up like the Serbian breakaway province of Kosovo, to which they have been compared, and be accepted by a substantial number of governments.
Alternatively, they could, like the case of northern Cyprus and Turkey, become largely isolated and recognised only by Russia.
What makes the situation more complex for the West, however, is the matter of Georgia’s territorial integrity and the issue of ethnic Georgians displaced from both regions. While South Ossetia was 29 percent Georgian in 1989, for example, they constituted the largest ethnic group in Abkhazia at 45.7 percent.
The situation has led to claims of ethnic cleansing, especially in the latter, but the BBC also reports that the real issue for Russia might simply be one of geopolitics. Indeed, some would argue that neither Russia nor Georgia are concerned with the actual rights of those ethnic groups living in either region.
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