Georgia: Fears of War with Russia

The Institute for War & Peace Reporting covers growing fears that an escalation in tensions between Georgia and Russia over the breakaway region of Abkhazia is moving perilously closer to war. The United States House of Representatives has already passed a resolution condemning what it calls “provocative and dangerous statements and actions” by Russia.

The Georgians and Abkhaz have exchanged proposals on how to defuse the crisis, but sources close to the negotiations tell IWPR that each side is demanding different things,

The Georgians are proposing discussions on Saakashvili’s latest peace plan for Abkhazia; measures to stabilise the situation in the security zone that separates the two sides; the establishment of a free economic zone in southern Abkhazia and other confidence-building measures; and talks on the return of refugees and internally displaced persons, and on the protection of human rights.

The Abkhaz have a completely different agenda – they want to talk about removing Georgian armed forces from the Upper Kodori Valley, whose the presence they say violates the ceasefire agreement; the lifting of Georgian sanctions on Abkhazia; the opening of a sea connection between their capital Sukhumi and the Turkish port of Trabzon and a possible road link with Turkey running through Georgian territory.

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The consensus among Georgian analysts is that Moscow is taking steps to thwart Tbilisi’s hopes of joining NATO. Foreign ministers from the alliance are set to review Georgia’s bid for a Membership Action Plan in December.

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Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov has alluded to the NATO issue, saying, “The number of our peacekeepers in Abkhazia is being increased because the Georgian side is making statements that make us fearful of provocations. I hope the right conclusions will be drawn in Tbilisi and in those capitals that are pulling Georgia into NATO.”