Georgia: War With Russia?

The South Caucasus has always been a volatile and unstable region riven by ethnic conflict and instability. This has especially been the case since the breakup of the Soviet Union and not least because the region is often considered the gateway between Europe and Central Asia, as well as where the competing interests of the West and Russia collide.

For those readers that have no idea where the Caucasus is, The Reference Frame provides a handy color-coded guide.

Look at the map. Start with the yellow disk, a global perspective. We are discussing the piece of land (blue rectangle) in between the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea. There are Caucasus Mountains over there as well as many cacophonic pairs of nations. The region is as dangerous for the peace as the Balkans on the opposite side of the Black Sea. […]

This is definitely the case in Georgia where tensions with Russia have increased to the extent that Reuters reports that the battle of words between Tbilisi and Moscow might yet turn into war over the breakaway and defacto independent [Georgian] region of Abkhazia.

The increased tension follows last month’s apparent downing of a Georgian drone allegedly by a Russian MiG-29 and reports that Russian troops are being sent to Abkhazia in case of a Georgian attempt to re-take the territory by force. As Hot Air explains, Russia and Georgia are playing brinkmanship again, but this time the consequences are uncertain.

Russia and Georgia have played at brinksmanship for quite a while, and while neither of them would benefit from a war, the tussle over Abkhazia might inadvertently set one in motion. Abkhazia is actually a secondary issue for Russia, although not a false premise for their policy. They see Abkhazia as within their sphere of influence, but Putin really wants an end to NATO expansion at the expense of Russia.

[…]

Both Moscow and Tbilisi are playing hardball over Russian attempts to keep Georgia within its political orbit. It demonstrates that the collapse of the Soviet Union unleashed consequences that have not yet fully played out, and that the “end of history” was anything but. If Putin and his hardliners insist on maintaining a quasi-empire in the breakaway republics, and if the West continues to counter those impulses, a flash point seems almost inevitable.

The full post is available on Global Voices Online:
http://www.globalvoicesonline.org/2008/05/07/georgia-war-with-russia/

Photo: IDP (from Abkhazia) Collective Center, Kutaisi, Republic of Georgia © Onnik Krikorian / Newport-Kutaisi Association 2007