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	<title>Comments on: Destabilizing Armenia</title>
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	<pubDate>Sun, 12 Feb 2012 15:34:17 +0000</pubDate>
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		<title>By: Artashes</title>
		<link>http://blog.oneworld.am/2008/03/08/destabilizing-armenia/#comment-3633</link>
		<dc:creator>Artashes</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 08 Mar 2008 04:45:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.oneworld.am/2008/03/08/destabilizing-armenia/#comment-3633</guid>
		<description>Oops, the second sentence should read: 
2-3 Azeri troops tried to secretly cross the demarkation line (reconnaissance?) but were spotted by 2-3 Armenian guys on the advanced observer post.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Oops, the second sentence should read:<br />
2-3 Azeri troops tried to secretly cross the demarkation line (reconnaissance?) but were spotted by 2-3 Armenian guys on the advanced observer post.</p>
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		<title>By: Artashes</title>
		<link>http://blog.oneworld.am/2008/03/08/destabilizing-armenia/#comment-3632</link>
		<dc:creator>Artashes</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 08 Mar 2008 04:41:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.oneworld.am/2008/03/08/destabilizing-armenia/#comment-3632</guid>
		<description>Paul and Onnik,

From the Russian-language blogs of some connected Armenians (they say they got the info directly from Martakert), here is what emerges:

2-3 Azeri troops tried to secretly cross the demarkation line (recobut were spotted by 2-3 Armenian guys on the advanced observer post. These Armenians got into action, but one of them stepped on the mine and lost a leg, another got wounded; the command ordered them to retreat to safety (the leg was later amputated but nobody died); the observer post and its vicinity was bombarded by Armenian light artillery cutting the retreat ways of Azeri guys; Azeri command sent a rescue mission, 5-6 people, to save their comrades; most of them were killed by the Armenian fire; no close combat occurred; hence, 2 wounded on the Armenian side, 6-8 killed on the Azeri side.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Paul and Onnik,</p>
<p>From the Russian-language blogs of some connected Armenians (they say they got the info directly from Martakert), here is what emerges:</p>
<p>2-3 Azeri troops tried to secretly cross the demarkation line (recobut were spotted by 2-3 Armenian guys on the advanced observer post. These Armenians got into action, but one of them stepped on the mine and lost a leg, another got wounded; the command ordered them to retreat to safety (the leg was later amputated but nobody died); the observer post and its vicinity was bombarded by Armenian light artillery cutting the retreat ways of Azeri guys; Azeri command sent a rescue mission, 5-6 people, to save their comrades; most of them were killed by the Armenian fire; no close combat occurred; hence, 2 wounded on the Armenian side, 6-8 killed on the Azeri side.</p>
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		<title>By: Paul</title>
		<link>http://blog.oneworld.am/2008/03/08/destabilizing-armenia/#comment-3629</link>
		<dc:creator>Paul</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 08 Mar 2008 03:34:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.oneworld.am/2008/03/08/destabilizing-armenia/#comment-3629</guid>
		<description>The excuse that Aliyev was in the west so why would they endanger him by attacking Karabakh is ridiculous. Unless Aliyev was literally on the front line, merely being in the region put him in absolutely no danger and more likely only made a stronger statement if this was an Azeri attack. I don't know exactly where he was, but presumably he was at least 25 miles from the border. Even being 10 miles from the border would have given him more than enough time to be evacuated out in case the unthinkable happened and not only full warfare broke out but that the Karabakh forces somehow made MAJOR advantages. Agan, all of it highly unlikely and all of it paying absolutely no real danger to Aliyev.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The excuse that Aliyev was in the west so why would they endanger him by attacking Karabakh is ridiculous. Unless Aliyev was literally on the front line, merely being in the region put him in absolutely no danger and more likely only made a stronger statement if this was an Azeri attack. I don&#8217;t know exactly where he was, but presumably he was at least 25 miles from the border. Even being 10 miles from the border would have given him more than enough time to be evacuated out in case the unthinkable happened and not only full warfare broke out but that the Karabakh forces somehow made MAJOR advantages. Agan, all of it highly unlikely and all of it paying absolutely no real danger to Aliyev.</p>
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		<title>By: Michael Lalpin</title>
		<link>http://blog.oneworld.am/2008/03/08/destabilizing-armenia/#comment-3623</link>
		<dc:creator>Michael Lalpin</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 07 Mar 2008 23:57:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.oneworld.am/2008/03/08/destabilizing-armenia/#comment-3623</guid>
		<description>It seems that circumenstances have managed to achieve destabilizing our country since Sept. 07.
Was the tourism, that was growing in leaps and bounds,  targeted by this factor ? 
Was it that Armenia being the most stable and economically progressing entity in the Caucasus region for the past 2-3 years, tourism being a revenue generator, disturbed our enemies to undermine her?
After all tourists inject very important sums to the government coffers without any constaints attached... 

Hoping that the wisdom and the patience of our people and authorities, will prevail  to overcome the divisif sloganeering of the opposing parties.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It seems that circumenstances have managed to achieve destabilizing our country since Sept. 07.<br />
Was the tourism, that was growing in leaps and bounds,  targeted by this factor ?<br />
Was it that Armenia being the most stable and economically progressing entity in the Caucasus region for the past 2-3 years, tourism being a revenue generator, disturbed our enemies to undermine her?<br />
After all tourists inject very important sums to the government coffers without any constaints attached&#8230; </p>
<p>Hoping that the wisdom and the patience of our people and authorities, will prevail  to overcome the divisif sloganeering of the opposing parties.</p>
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		<title>By: Onnik</title>
		<link>http://blog.oneworld.am/2008/03/08/destabilizing-armenia/#comment-3619</link>
		<dc:creator>Onnik</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 07 Mar 2008 21:44:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.oneworld.am/2008/03/08/destabilizing-armenia/#comment-3619</guid>
		<description>To be honest, I don't know what to believe and we're always in this situation when it comes to clashes on the front line. However, this was a larger one than normal and my first reaction was that the Azeris were probing Karabakh defenses. On the other hand, all of the possible theories are entirely feasible. For more information, IWPR has just posted an article.

&lt;blockquote&gt;Accounts differ as to who fired first. But all agree it was the most serious breach of the ceasefire in a decade, and one that could have alarming consequences if it were repeated.

[...]

The two sides agreed on these casualty figures, although according to Reuters, the Azerbaijanis also claimed that the Armenians lost 12 soldiers, which Hasratian denied.

The defence ministry of Armenia itself, which treats Nagorny Karabakh as a separate and independent entity, came out with a statement blaming the Azerbaijanis for starting the firefight.

Ministry spokesman Colonel Seyran Shahsuvarian said Azerbaijani forces seized an important defensive position held by the other side, which then responded with gunfire, regained the territory, and forced their opponents back to their original lines.

[...]

Anar Mamedkhanov, a member of Azerbaijan’s parliament, told IWPR that President Ilham Aliev was visiting that part of the country, so it would hardly have made sense to launch military operations near to where he was.

“Basic human logic would tell you that for reasons of security, it wouldn’t have been in the interests of the Azerbaijani armed forces to mount a provocation that day, since the president was in a neighbouring region that day. Why create a risk to his life?” asked Mamedkhanov.

The incident was undoubtedly the most serious of its kind in many years. Since a truce was signed in 1994, leaving Armenian forces in control of Nagorny Karabakh, there have been sporadic shooting incidents but the ceasefire has by and large held. The OSCE, the international mediating group, operates a limited monitoring mission which visits the front line periodically.

[...]

A senior OSCE official told IWPR that "the situation is very dangerous; there is a risk of escalation", calling this “the worst incident in the last ten years”.

"Fortunately, on this occasion, there was a political decision not to escalate," he said. "The worry is that this kind of skirmish could become a common occurrence."

[...]

Azad Isazade, a defence expert at the Institute for War and Democracy in Baku, said ceasefire violations were fairly common at this time of year, when the snow melted and it became easier to move around. “Of course, on this occasion the shooting was on a larger scale,” he said. “But I don’t think it will lead to full-scale war.”

Other commentators in Azerbaijan, Nagorny Karabakh and Armenia tended to identify internal political factors which might have prompted the opposing side to deliberately seek a confrontation.

David Babayan, a political analyst in Nagorny Karabakh, speculated that the Azerbaijani leadership might have been probing their opponents’ defences at a time when Armenia itself is in political turmoil.

A second possibility, he suggested, was that Baku was seriously concerned that Nagorny Karabakh’s aspirations for independence had moved a step forward following the declaration of independence by Kosovo, another former autonomous territory within a Communist state.

“Azerbaijan is seriously worried about the right of nations to self-determination, and it chose to react by using force,” he said.

A common theme among analysts across the region was that the exchange of gunfire was in some way connected with the domestic political strife in Armenia, where opposition protests over the results of the February 19 presidential election ended in bloodshed on March 1. Eight people were reported dead after running battles between police and demonstrators in the capital Yerevan.

Azerbaijani political scientist Rasim Musabekov believes the administration of outgoing president Robert Kocharian and his elected successor Serzh Sarkisian stood to gain from creating a diversion to distract attention from their own problems.

Armed forces chief of staff Lt-Gen Sadigov made a similar point, saying the ceasefire was a direct consequence of Armenia’s internal troubles.

Armenia’s foreign minister Vardan Oskanian, meanwhile, accused Baku of “taking advantage of the exacerbation of the internal political situation in Armenia".&lt;/blockquote&gt;

http://www.iwpr.net/EN-crs-f-343239</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>To be honest, I don&#8217;t know what to believe and we&#8217;re always in this situation when it comes to clashes on the front line. However, this was a larger one than normal and my first reaction was that the Azeris were probing Karabakh defenses. On the other hand, all of the possible theories are entirely feasible. For more information, IWPR has just posted an article.</p>
<blockquote><p>Accounts differ as to who fired first. But all agree it was the most serious breach of the ceasefire in a decade, and one that could have alarming consequences if it were repeated.</p>
<p>[&#8230;]</p>
<p>The two sides agreed on these casualty figures, although according to Reuters, the Azerbaijanis also claimed that the Armenians lost 12 soldiers, which Hasratian denied.</p>
<p>The defence ministry of Armenia itself, which treats Nagorny Karabakh as a separate and independent entity, came out with a statement blaming the Azerbaijanis for starting the firefight.</p>
<p>Ministry spokesman Colonel Seyran Shahsuvarian said Azerbaijani forces seized an important defensive position held by the other side, which then responded with gunfire, regained the territory, and forced their opponents back to their original lines.</p>
<p>[&#8230;]</p>
<p>Anar Mamedkhanov, a member of Azerbaijan’s parliament, told IWPR that President Ilham Aliev was visiting that part of the country, so it would hardly have made sense to launch military operations near to where he was.</p>
<p>“Basic human logic would tell you that for reasons of security, it wouldn’t have been in the interests of the Azerbaijani armed forces to mount a provocation that day, since the president was in a neighbouring region that day. Why create a risk to his life?” asked Mamedkhanov.</p>
<p>The incident was undoubtedly the most serious of its kind in many years. Since a truce was signed in 1994, leaving Armenian forces in control of Nagorny Karabakh, there have been sporadic shooting incidents but the ceasefire has by and large held. The OSCE, the international mediating group, operates a limited monitoring mission which visits the front line periodically.</p>
<p>[&#8230;]</p>
<p>A senior OSCE official told IWPR that &#8220;the situation is very dangerous; there is a risk of escalation&#8221;, calling this “the worst incident in the last ten years”.</p>
<p>&#8220;Fortunately, on this occasion, there was a political decision not to escalate,&#8221; he said. &#8220;The worry is that this kind of skirmish could become a common occurrence.&#8221;</p>
<p>[&#8230;]</p>
<p>Azad Isazade, a defence expert at the Institute for War and Democracy in Baku, said ceasefire violations were fairly common at this time of year, when the snow melted and it became easier to move around. “Of course, on this occasion the shooting was on a larger scale,” he said. “But I don’t think it will lead to full-scale war.”</p>
<p>Other commentators in Azerbaijan, Nagorny Karabakh and Armenia tended to identify internal political factors which might have prompted the opposing side to deliberately seek a confrontation.</p>
<p>David Babayan, a political analyst in Nagorny Karabakh, speculated that the Azerbaijani leadership might have been probing their opponents’ defences at a time when Armenia itself is in political turmoil.</p>
<p>A second possibility, he suggested, was that Baku was seriously concerned that Nagorny Karabakh’s aspirations for independence had moved a step forward following the declaration of independence by Kosovo, another former autonomous territory within a Communist state.</p>
<p>“Azerbaijan is seriously worried about the right of nations to self-determination, and it chose to react by using force,” he said.</p>
<p>A common theme among analysts across the region was that the exchange of gunfire was in some way connected with the domestic political strife in Armenia, where opposition protests over the results of the February 19 presidential election ended in bloodshed on March 1. Eight people were reported dead after running battles between police and demonstrators in the capital Yerevan.</p>
<p>Azerbaijani political scientist Rasim Musabekov believes the administration of outgoing president Robert Kocharian and his elected successor Serzh Sarkisian stood to gain from creating a diversion to distract attention from their own problems.</p>
<p>Armed forces chief of staff Lt-Gen Sadigov made a similar point, saying the ceasefire was a direct consequence of Armenia’s internal troubles.</p>
<p>Armenia’s foreign minister Vardan Oskanian, meanwhile, accused Baku of “taking advantage of the exacerbation of the internal political situation in Armenia&#8221;.</p></blockquote>
<p><a href="http://www.iwpr.net/EN-crs-f-343239" rel="nofollow">http://www.iwpr.net/EN-crs-f-343239</a></p>
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		<title>By: Paul</title>
		<link>http://blog.oneworld.am/2008/03/08/destabilizing-armenia/#comment-3618</link>
		<dc:creator>Paul</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 07 Mar 2008 21:37:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.oneworld.am/2008/03/08/destabilizing-armenia/#comment-3618</guid>
		<description>I still wish I knew the truth behind the "12 Armenians and 4 Azeris killed" number. It should be noted Armenian side keeps claiming 2 wounded Armenians and none killed, but the higher Azeri toll is the one which is universally quoted. Not saying that the Armenian side is necessarily telling the truth- but I am remiss to trust the Azeri numbers either yet they are the ones which are always listed. It's still even a mystery who started this. Allegedly the Azeri bodies were found on the Armenian-controlled side of the line (and there are pictures of them being handed over) which suggests an Azeri assult as opposed to what Azeris say was Armenian aggression- but who knows exactly.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I still wish I knew the truth behind the &#8220;12 Armenians and 4 Azeris killed&#8221; number. It should be noted Armenian side keeps claiming 2 wounded Armenians and none killed, but the higher Azeri toll is the one which is universally quoted. Not saying that the Armenian side is necessarily telling the truth- but I am remiss to trust the Azeri numbers either yet they are the ones which are always listed. It&#8217;s still even a mystery who started this. Allegedly the Azeri bodies were found on the Armenian-controlled side of the line (and there are pictures of them being handed over) which suggests an Azeri assult as opposed to what Azeris say was Armenian aggression- but who knows exactly.</p>
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