Destabilizing Armenia
Reuters carries a rather alarming analysis that says the post-election crisis could destabilize the most stable republic in the volatile South Caucasus. Interestingly, analysts are finally starting to point the finger at the predictable rhetoric that has defined the opposition in Armenia in recent years, but which former president, Levon Ter-Petrossian, took to new levels in the pre-election period.
YEREVAN, March 7 (Reuters) - A political standoff has destabilised Armenia and threatens stability elsewhere in the volatile Caucasus, even though soldiers have restored order in the capital after the worst street violence since independence.
[…]
“Armenia has had a reputation as the most stable country in the region and any sign of instability here is a concern,” a Western diplomat said.
The protesters say the election was rigged against former President Levon Ter-Petrosyan, who accuses Kocharyan and Prime Minister Serzh Sarksyan of nepotism and corruption. Sarksyan was declared the winner with nearly 53 percent of the votes.
[…]
Kocharyan and Sarksyan are part of a group that has ruled Armenia for a decade and comes from the disputed border region of Nagorno-Karabakh, which threw off Azeri rule during a war in the 1990s.
Witnesses at rallies say Ter-Petrosyan has whipped up anti-Karabakh sentiment to present the government as greedy outsiders, a tactic that political analysts say stokes tensions.
Badges handed out at election rallies declared: “I’m a true Armenian”. In interviews Ter-Petrosyan alluded to the government as “Tartar-Mongols”, who in Armenian stories are portrayed as clan-based Muslim invaders.
“This is a dangerous tactic which could divide Armenians further and lead to more violence,” Alexander Iskandaryan, head of the Yerevan-based Caucasus Media Institute, said.
No kidding it’s a dangerous tactic and even residents of Armenia from the Diaspora who don’t express total support for Ter-Petrossian have been on the receiving end of hostile abuse. Indeed, during Ter-Petrossian’s period in power, Armenia-Diaspora relations were not as evolved as they are now and one can only hope that this isn’t the next dividing line to be drawn.
Of course, the fissure already exists for perhaps valid reasons, but of more importance to the outside world for now is a fragile ceasefire agreement with neighboring Azerbaijan. Things might appear calmer in Yerevan since last weekend, but the larger picture is uncertain and tensions between the opposition and authorities still permeate.
The government says the 20-day state of emergency, banning demonstrations and censoring media, is needed to restore stability, hunt for illegal weapons and counter coup plots.
Opponents say the government is abusing its powers to crush dissent and have vowed to resume the daily protests which had regularly attracted 20,000 people since the election, in which Ter-Petrosyan won only 21.5 percent of the votes.
Outside Yerevan’s central market, labourers are knocking together shelves in a supermarket looted on Saturday. Dozens of protesters and police are recovering in hospitals.
Mediators from the United States and Europe are trying to bring the sides together but neither has agreed to negotiate.
“There’s a chance that the events of Saturday radicalised and polarised the people and there’s also a chance of further street protests,” Iskandaryan said.
[…]
Any leadership weakness in Yerevan could unsettle the fragile peace with Azerbaijan, which said 12 Armenians and four Azeri soldiers died in clashes in Nagorno-Karabakh this week.
“An unstable Armenia is a big problem and threatens to upset the whole region,” Iskandaryan said. “This is a small region where all the countries and peoples are interwoven.”
In such a context it can only be hoped that whatever tomorrow’s verdict is from the Constitutional Court — regardless of whether that is to nullify or accept the final results of the 19 February presidential election — it will be accepted by both sides. Armenia is on a knife-edge and it’s now important to realize that fact.
- Published:
- 03.08.08 / 12am by Onnik
- Category:
- Analysis, Armenia, Armenia Presidential Election 2008, Azerbaijan, Candidates, Constitutional Court, Democracy, Diaspora, Military, Nagorno Karabakh, Opinion, Revolution, Society, State of Emergency, Violence
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