EUI: Blood on the Streets

The Economist Intelligence Unit has an overview of recent events in Armenia. While the analysis says that the authorities might have planted weapons in order to justify the crackdown, it does admit that some protesters were armed. The analysis also predicts that the next flashpoint might occur on 9 April when, assuming that the Constitutional Court does not annul the election results, president-elect Serge Sargsyan will be inaugurated. It also examines how recent events might impact on relations between the new and outgoing presidents.

Should it prove necessary, Mr Sarkisian might attempt to dissociate himself from Mr Kocharian, given that it was the outgoing president who imposed the state of emergency that culminated in Saturday’s crackdown. Whether Mr Kocharian has a political future after he relinquishes the presidency—until now, he seemed on course to become prime minister—is questionable.

On the one hand, if he wins the support of hardliners and those members of the Republican Party dissatisfied with Mr Sarkisian–the party chairman–then Mr Kocharian could argue that the events of recent days highlight the need for a strong prime minister. His appointment to the position would be sure to enflame the opposition, with the events of the past few days further eroding his already weak legitimacy. On the other hand, given the enhanced powers that the prime minister’s office now has, following constitutional reforms enacted in 2005, Mr Sarkisian might opt to appoint a weaker figure to the post, thereby ensuring that he retains power in the presidency and simultaneously sidelines Mr Kocharian.

With the state of emergency in force at least until March 20th, and Mr Ter-Petrosian urging his supporters to observe the ban on demonstrations, an uneasy calm is likely to prevail in the coming weeks. The next flashpoint is likely to be the presidential inauguration, probably on April 9th, when the risk of renewed violence is high. If the two sides have been unable to resolve the impasse by then, Mr Sarkisian will have an uphill battle to persuade the public of his commitment to democratic process.