Armenia-Azerbaijan Tensions

Related posts:

• Vahan Hovannisian: Karabakh Must Participate in Peace Talks
• EurasiaNet — Azerbaijani, Turkish Propaganda
• Nagorno Karabakh: Madrid Principles
• South Ossetia: What’s next, Nagorno-Karabakh or Nakhchivan?
• Azerbaijan: Black January
• The Economist: Troubled Armenia
• Condoleezza Rice: Nagorno Karabakh Remains Major Obstacle to Regional Development
• Georgia: Armenian Hopes

1. Paul 03.05.08 / 4am

   I’ve been following the story. There are all sorts of ideas about what is going on and very little reliable information as each sides’ sources conflict each other. Azeris admit a couple losses while they say numerous Armenians were killed, while Armenians say they killed 8-11 Azeris while two Armenians were wounded.
   Azeri press says this was Armenian aggression- but Azeri press is absolutely unreliable because they whine and complain of Armenians unilaterally violating the cease fire literally every day (there isn’t a day that goes by that the on-line Azeri press doesn’t have an “Armenians break ceasefire” article, as if Armenians violate 100% of the time). Armenian press claims Azeris overran the Armenian position and then Armenians had a counteroffensive in which they took it back. It’s hard to know what the truth is.

   Some Armenians (along with Azeris) say this move was to take the focus off the internal problems- and I guess possibly rally the country around the threat to Karabakh. Also some Serge supporters are saying this is all Levon’s fault because in their opinion he is the sole cause of the crisis so therefore he caused the incursion into Karabakh and is another reason why he’s bad.
   Armenian side says this was Azerbaijan exploiting Armenia’s fractured and chaotic situation by using it as a time to try to take back some land and have at least a small victory. It is a coincidence that just hours before this- if not at the exact moment- Aliyev was making statements about how Azerbaijan is ready to take back Karabakh by force and that the country must be ready at all times (granted he says this kind of thing a lot, but the latest comment sounded more immitent.) This comment, had it been coupled with a small victory taking a small piece of Karabakh, would have been a huge propaganda victory and a major blow to Armenians, showing them whose boss and making its already difficult situation even harder. News sources are also saying Azerbaijan is upset over the Kosovo precedent and that it is pushing them to settle Karabakh militarily.

   Some speculate this event was a mix of both of those, they aren’t mutually exclusive though I don’t know about that. I really don’t know which interpretation, if not a mix of both, is the actual one but I don’t really think Armenia started it because it does seem like the Armenian forces were overrun first and land captured. This has the hallmarks of an Azeri assault and not a run-of-the-mill violation. I don’t know how Armenians could possibly do the violation yet lose the land and then get it back. Things are so unpredictable though you never know what this was really about. I guess we have to see if tomorrow brings more shooting or not, whether this was a one time show or something even more serious.
2. Sevak 03.05.08 / 5am

   I am totally for the protests this weekend but after hearing this I think our leaders need to get together with the opposition as soon as possible and find some fast conclusion for this problem at least until this Azerbaijan threat is done with. We cant have the people be divided at this moment. Once the Turks are defeated we can return to our issue at hand…I actually knew this would happen when the protests started…Azerbaijan has been waiting for the moment for a while they have lots of money stored up from their oil sales and are ready to attack us.
3. Onnik 03.05.08 / 11am

   Deadly Fighting Reported In Karabakh

   Armenia and Azerbaijan reported on Tuesday fierce fighting between their forces stationed northeast of Nagorno-Karabakh, blaming each other for what appears to be the most serious ceasefire violation in months.

   […]

   The Armenian side said fighting broke out there early in the morning when Azerbaijani troops attacked and temporarily capture a Karabakh Armenian army outpost in the area. According to Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisian, Armenian forces went on a counteroffensive and recaptured the position in the afternoon after the Azerbaijanis refused to pull back.

   […]

   The Azerbaijani military came up with a diametrically opposite version of events, accusing the Armenians of attacking its positions north-east of Karabakh’s Mardakert district. “The Azerbaijani army is giving the Armenians a worthy response and we are fully capable of defending the independence of our country,” the army chief of staff, Lieutenant-General Nejmeddin Sadygov, said, according to the Day.az news services.

   Both Sadygov and a spokesman for the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry, Khazar Ibrahim, linked the fighting with the post-election tensions in Armenia. “This is a clear provocation by Armenia,” Ibrahim told RFE/RL. “They are trying to use the situation which is taking place in Yerevan after the elections and are trying to divert the attention of their citizens and population from the internal and domestic issues in order to seek an external enemy.”

   But according to Armenian Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian, it is Baku which is striking at a moment when Yerevan is particularly vulnerable. “We condemn this challenge, and we think that this is an attempt by the Azerbaijani side to exploit the current situation in Armenia,” Oskanian said. “Perhaps they thought we had focused all of our attention on our internal situation, and that this could provide them with a psychological advantage, but this hasn’t proved the case.”

   http://www.armenialiberty.org/armeniareport/report/en/2008/03/0B451E54-A917-48C9-93C9-3CC7E9D14A0E.ASP
4. GT 03.05.08 / 12pm

   I guess armenian official information is as unreliable as azeri. I have a strong tendency to look at the events form the view point of who is interested or benefiting from their occurrence. And according to my logic, azeris should have attacked armenian positions before March 1st, when it was not clear how much disarray the elections and protests has caused in the upper echelons of armenian powers. However on the aftermath of the brutal, but determined suppression of protests, the attack from azeri side sounds pretty useless to me. On the other hand I do see a strong interest of armenian authorities to provoke such incident in order to distract public attention from elections, show the importance of uniting against common enemy and underlining the value and importance of the armed forces.
5. Marilisa 03.05.08 / 3pm

   Whatever happened, it seems to have being turned into a single incident, due not to escalate into a major confrontation.
   Russian media gave it the less relevance possible, and NATO expressed concern.

   The tone of remarks on Azeri press today is quieter. Here from Azeri Press Agency, http://www.apa.az/en/:
   [ 05 Mar 2008 13:22 ]
   Members of the Public Council for the Settlement of Karabakh Conflict met with Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Matthew Bryza visiting Azerbaijan, Chief of the Council Arzu Abdullayeva told APA that the meeting focused on the settlement of Karabakh conflict.
   Matthew Bryza said the sides should carry out negotiations within the framework of civil societies. He also noted that he would further closely cooperate with the Public Council for the Settlement of Karabakh Conflict and have discussions with the council on the solution of the problem during his every visit to Azerbaijan.

   [ 05 Mar 2008 13:16 ]“We think a monitoring of the frontline to be conducted within several days”, Vasili Istratov, Russian Ambassador to Azerbaijan told journalists.
   Ambassador Istratov underlined their attention to the developments in the frontline and said last firing was more intensive than previous ones. He said monitoring would be conducted under the mandate of the special envoy of OSCE Chairman-in-Office.

   Other web-sites (such as day.az or its English version http://www.today.az/news/society/43529.html) report that since last night there is no longer any fight. No more statements about Azeri battalions able to reach Yerevan.

   Recently there seems to be nothing else that lists of killed.
6. Michael Lalpin 03.05.08 / 9pm

   Storm in a tea cup?
   Was this an effort, furthering the instability and divisions prevailing in Armenia of post elections?
   One wonders who are the string pullers within and without?
7. Onnik 03.05.08 / 10pm

   Ariel Cohen: “Armenia is likely to seek diversion from the crackdown on democratic forces in the country by warming up the border with Azerbaijan”
   05 March 2008 [12:13] - Today.Az

   “Armenia is likely to seek diversion from the crackdown on democratic forces in the country by warming up the border with Azerbaijan,” Ariel Cohen, senior research fellow at Heritage Foundation told APA.

   According to him, encouraged by the example of Kosovo, the Karabakh forces may be under the illusion that independence is paid for with the blood of fighting.

   “However, the international community, including Europe and the US, are not interested right now in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict getting out of control. They would like to defuse smaller conflicts, such as Kosovo and Gaza, and other minor sources of tension. The West is seeking to resolve and concentrate on real threats: Al Qaeda, Iraq, Iran and Afghanistan. Those adventurist politicians who do not understand that are likely to pay a bitter price in the future,” he said.

   /APA/

   http://www.today.az/news/politics/43550.html
8. Michael Lalpin 03.05.08 / 11pm

   Is Ariel Cohen’s insinuation that, Artsakh forces were the instigators of the skirmishes, not biased towards the insemination, that the present government is misleading Armenia and the world?
   This type of hype is expected only from so called research fellows that are made for the sole purpose of creating more confusion in the public.
   Otherwise, what is their purpose of playing imaginary scenarios other then sharpening animosities amongst opponents?

Powered by Hemingway flavored Wordpress. Modified by Oneworld Multimedia.

Entries RSS Comments RSS