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	<title>Comments on: Armenia: No Revolution Likely</title>
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	<pubDate>Mon, 13 Feb 2012 00:25:07 +0000</pubDate>
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		<title>By: GT</title>
		<link>http://blog.oneworld.am/2008/03/04/armenia-no-revolution-likely/#comment-3501</link>
		<dc:creator>GT</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 04 Mar 2008 19:06:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.oneworld.am/2008/03/04/armenia-no-revolution-likely/#comment-3501</guid>
		<description>Most people are protesting against criminal dictatorship of Kocharian-Sarkisian. And its not directly related to the person of LTP. this discontent is not going to disappear with crashing of current leaders. It may go underground and become a really big danger in future.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Most people are protesting against criminal dictatorship of Kocharian-Sarkisian. And its not directly related to the person of LTP. this discontent is not going to disappear with crashing of current leaders. It may go underground and become a really big danger in future.</p>
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		<title>By: Onnik</title>
		<link>http://blog.oneworld.am/2008/03/04/armenia-no-revolution-likely/#comment-3497</link>
		<dc:creator>Onnik</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 04 Mar 2008 15:21:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.oneworld.am/2008/03/04/armenia-no-revolution-likely/#comment-3497</guid>
		<description>Marilisa,

I think everybody's to blame and as you say neither side is willing to admit their fault. I'm not happy with the news blackout here either, but at the same time understand that the pro-opposition press abused the freedoms afforded them and fed the emotions and hatred that lead to the clash.

Not the government or security forces are blameless, however. I'd still like to know whether a warning was given before security forces went in on Saturday morning. However, that does not excuse the radical opposition regoruping, burning and destroying vehicles to make barricades and preparing for clashes.

Anyway, it's now hard to know what is true and what is not. Too many rumors going around, especially from the opposition who still think they can stage a revolution, and so I'm limited to AFP, Reuters etc while they still report on what's going on. Every other media outlet here, including local journalists writing for IWPR and EurasiaNet, are part of the conflict even.

While I'm sure violence was limited to groups within larger structures on both sides, one thing is certain. Everyone who involved themselves in the electoral process since last September and resorted to words designed to provoke hatred and confrontation are to blame for what happened on Saturday.

Ironically, that means Ter-Petrossian most of all.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Marilisa,</p>
<p>I think everybody&#8217;s to blame and as you say neither side is willing to admit their fault. I&#8217;m not happy with the news blackout here either, but at the same time understand that the pro-opposition press abused the freedoms afforded them and fed the emotions and hatred that lead to the clash.</p>
<p>Not the government or security forces are blameless, however. I&#8217;d still like to know whether a warning was given before security forces went in on Saturday morning. However, that does not excuse the radical opposition regoruping, burning and destroying vehicles to make barricades and preparing for clashes.</p>
<p>Anyway, it&#8217;s now hard to know what is true and what is not. Too many rumors going around, especially from the opposition who still think they can stage a revolution, and so I&#8217;m limited to AFP, Reuters etc while they still report on what&#8217;s going on. Every other media outlet here, including local journalists writing for IWPR and EurasiaNet, are part of the conflict even.</p>
<p>While I&#8217;m sure violence was limited to groups within larger structures on both sides, one thing is certain. Everyone who involved themselves in the electoral process since last September and resorted to words designed to provoke hatred and confrontation are to blame for what happened on Saturday.</p>
<p>Ironically, that means Ter-Petrossian most of all.</p>
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		<title>By: Marilisa</title>
		<link>http://blog.oneworld.am/2008/03/04/armenia-no-revolution-likely/#comment-3496</link>
		<dc:creator>Marilisa</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 04 Mar 2008 15:13:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.oneworld.am/2008/03/04/armenia-no-revolution-likely/#comment-3496</guid>
		<description>Still, what happened Saturday night is a big blow for Armenian civil society, not only for the contested management of the crisis by the authorities and the following state of emergency, but also for the devastations that brought discredit to those who were on the streets. Now the perpetrators of the damages are denied to be affiliated to LTP, in view of the massive destructions (www.panorama.am)... and no one will start to claim that it was his/her folk!  

I guess it will be difficult to assess individual responsibilities, nonetheless it’s definitively unfair to ignore that just a part played a dirty game. The more detailed information I read is the descriptions of small independent groups acting as street warriors on their own, departing from the main +/- 7000 thousands people manifestation [so in the article of zerkalo.az “Where is the Caucasus, where is democracy?”]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Still, what happened Saturday night is a big blow for Armenian civil society, not only for the contested management of the crisis by the authorities and the following state of emergency, but also for the devastations that brought discredit to those who were on the streets. Now the perpetrators of the damages are denied to be affiliated to LTP, in view of the massive destructions (www.panorama.am)&#8230; and no one will start to claim that it was his/her folk!  </p>
<p>I guess it will be difficult to assess individual responsibilities, nonetheless it’s definitively unfair to ignore that just a part played a dirty game. The more detailed information I read is the descriptions of small independent groups acting as street warriors on their own, departing from the main +/- 7000 thousands people manifestation [so in the article of zerkalo.az “Where is the Caucasus, where is democracy?”]</p>
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		<title>By: Onnik</title>
		<link>http://blog.oneworld.am/2008/03/04/armenia-no-revolution-likely/#comment-3487</link>
		<dc:creator>Onnik</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 04 Mar 2008 11:50:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.oneworld.am/2008/03/04/armenia-no-revolution-likely/#comment-3487</guid>
		<description>Interesting excerpt from the ISN Security Watch analysis stating that most demonstrators in Liberty Square were not LTP supporters which might explain his inability to exceed the core 10-15,000 supporters who would act as "ground troops" during clashes. The analysis also implies that a new regrouping behind Sargsyan and Ter-Petrossian is likely to take place.

Also interestingly, the analysis also identifies civil society's involvement with Ter-Petrossian in addition to what we already know -- journalists at "independent" publications (rather than directly linked outlets such as A1 Plus, Haykakan Zhamanak and Hetq Online) such as Armenia Now and RFE/RL siding with Ter-Petrossian and slanting their reports accordingly. 

&lt;blockquote&gt;An interesting issue related to the makeup of the demonstrators was that according to many interviews conducted by ISN Security Watch, most of the demonstrators were not Ter-Petrossian supporters. Some of them were even staunch opponents of the former president.

However, with the absence of any other viable opposition leader, Ter-Petrossian became a de facto representative of civil society and youth movements, including a sizeable section of Armenians who in the last decade or so have become frustrated with the current government's socio-political and economic policies.

[...]

In an overall mood of apathy, the main question remains if in 20-days time Ter-Petrossian will be able to mobilize enough people to continue his demonstrations.

In the meantime, the foundation has been laid for behind-the-scenes negotiations for which both the government and Ter-Petrossian will attempt to "recruit" as many allies as possible.

With Sargsian already having secured the support of Baghdasarian ahead of his officially taking over from Kocharian on 9 April, he seems to be ahead of his political rival by calling for all sides to join his government with the promise of various posts and positions to be awarded for loyalty.&lt;/blockquote&gt;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Interesting excerpt from the ISN Security Watch analysis stating that most demonstrators in Liberty Square were not LTP supporters which might explain his inability to exceed the core 10-15,000 supporters who would act as &#8220;ground troops&#8221; during clashes. The analysis also implies that a new regrouping behind Sargsyan and Ter-Petrossian is likely to take place.</p>
<p>Also interestingly, the analysis also identifies civil society&#8217;s involvement with Ter-Petrossian in addition to what we already know &#8212; journalists at &#8220;independent&#8221; publications (rather than directly linked outlets such as A1 Plus, Haykakan Zhamanak and Hetq Online) such as Armenia Now and RFE/RL siding with Ter-Petrossian and slanting their reports accordingly. </p>
<blockquote><p>An interesting issue related to the makeup of the demonstrators was that according to many interviews conducted by ISN Security Watch, most of the demonstrators were not Ter-Petrossian supporters. Some of them were even staunch opponents of the former president.</p>
<p>However, with the absence of any other viable opposition leader, Ter-Petrossian became a de facto representative of civil society and youth movements, including a sizeable section of Armenians who in the last decade or so have become frustrated with the current government&#8217;s socio-political and economic policies.</p>
<p>[&#8230;]</p>
<p>In an overall mood of apathy, the main question remains if in 20-days time Ter-Petrossian will be able to mobilize enough people to continue his demonstrations.</p>
<p>In the meantime, the foundation has been laid for behind-the-scenes negotiations for which both the government and Ter-Petrossian will attempt to &#8220;recruit&#8221; as many allies as possible.</p>
<p>With Sargsian already having secured the support of Baghdasarian ahead of his officially taking over from Kocharian on 9 April, he seems to be ahead of his political rival by calling for all sides to join his government with the promise of various posts and positions to be awarded for loyalty.</p></blockquote>
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