Armenia: No Revolution Likely
ISN Security Watch has an analysis of the situation in the country after the 1 March clashes on the streets of the capital. In particular, while the item concludes that dispersal of an overnight demonstration in Yerevan’s Liberty Square was perhaps a sign of weakness on the part of the authorities, it also says that Ter-Petrossian’s chances of provoking revolution in the country are unlikely to come to fruition.
One witness in Yerevan told ISN Security Watch: “Saturday night was surreal. At one intersection one could see events unfolding with characteristics of a revolution, while a few blocks up the street people were walking their dogs, taking their dates home and eating at restaurants as if nothing was happening.”
This observation illustrates the extent of popular apathy and could indicate that Armenia is not, as many observers and experts have considered, on the verge of a colorful revolution as happened in Ukraine and Georgia, where there were elements of overwhelming popular mobilization and foreign - specifically western - support. The current Armenian opposition has neither, and as such is bound to develop in ways dissimilar to these colorful revolutions.
Even before the announcement of the state of emergency and media blackout, the local media was polarized.
On the one hand, official media sources disregarded any and all reports about demonstrations, which immediately before the 1 March events had spread to the northern cities of Gyumri and Vanatzor.
On the other hand, opposition media (mostly print and online) were calling for the continuation of the demonstrations and reporting arrests and provocations by the authorities.
Incidentally, the same conclusion is shared by other analysts in the region. All of them rule out the possibility of revolution in Armenia and specifically point out that unlike Georgia and Ukraine, attempts to contest official election results have not been peaceful. However, the analysts do not rule out support for Ter-Petrossian from the United States and new elections being held.
- Published:
- 03.04.08 / 4pm by Onnik
- Category:
- Armenia, Armenia Presidential Election 2008, Candidates, Demonstrations, Diaspora, News Briefs, Opinion, Rallies, Revolution, Russia, United States, Violence
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