Armenia Divided — Situation Unpredictable

AFP reports that the situation in Armenia is now unpredictable and years of internal instability are likely to follow Saturday’s mayhem on the streets when supporters of former president, Levon Ter-Petrossian, clashed with riot police and soldiers.

“Polarisation in Armenian society is now very deep. And after this level of violence it will be very challenging for all sides to bring the situation back to normal,” said Magdalena Frichova, the Caucasus director for the International Crisis Group think tank.

“It’s extremely difficult to predict what will happen next.”

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“Refusing to recognize the results of elections and protests are part of Armenian political culture,” analyst Alexander Iskandarian of the Caucasus Media Institute said.

“But Saturday’s riots marked a new peak…. Ter-Petrosian is becoming more and more radical and wants nothing less than the presidency,” he said.

Analysts said that with no signs Ter-Petrosian is ready to back down, it’s unclear how the country will emerge from political deadlock. Authorities have already arrested some of the opposition’s leadership, including two lawmakers on charges of attempting a coup d’etat.

But short of making large-scale arrests, tens of thousands of disgruntled Ter-Petrosian supporters will remain deeply opposed to Sarkisian’s leadership, analysts said.

Much will depend, analysts said, on how the international community responds to the recent unrest.

Interestingly, in November last year, the Strategic Culture Foundation published an analysis of Ter-Petrossian’s presidential bid, arguing that the former president would destabilize the country. Supporters of the government also believed that revolution and civil unrest were part of Ter-Petrossian’s plans to come to power.