Armenia: Revolution Underway?

Related posts:

• Rallies, Revolution & the Numbers Game
• U.S. Embassy Post-Election Warning
• Sargsyan Suggests Coalition Government
• RFE/RL Election News Briefs, 16 January 2008
• Post-Election Jitters
• Armenia: No Revolution Likely
• U.S. Embassy Post-Election Warning
• OSCE, CE Welcomes Agreement on Rally Law

1. Marilisa 02.28.08 / 7pm

   I think there is really an abuse of the word “revolution”. A revolution implies the re-shaping of the form of government and/or of state and/or economic system and eventually of the cultural paradigm. The colour revolutions, to me, look much more like coup d’etat, i.e. the overthrow of the government by a political part, or istitutional part (in case of military putsch). But I understand that the appeal “let’s make a coloured putsch” doesn’t sound so well…

   Anyway, usually such things happen when it’s the right person in the right place at the right time. I don’t know if Levon Ter-Petrosyan, with next parliamentary elections so far (would it be possible a co-habitation with the present majority?), and the international comunity absorbed by high tensions, can do it.

   Doesn’t it all seem to be a bit frozen? The same political leaders (or lobbies) of ten years ago… it’s not yet something like the Soviet gerontocracy, but, still… Maybe someone as skillfull as him, but not involved in precedent goverments, or at least not held responsible for past mismanagement, would have been more successful in gaining a larger support.
   If people want a change, basicly, they expect it from a renewed political elite.
2. Onnik 02.28.08 / 8pm

   Hi Marilisa,

   You make some important points, I think, and actually, I’ve started to use the phrase “coup d’etat” as well of late as not only is it those formerly in power trying to regain it, but also there is no sign that Levon Ter-Petrossian won, yet this is still pretty much a movement to bring him to power rather than to push for any real change.

   Of course, there are those among his supporters who want that change, but I also think they exist elsewhere as well. For now, though, it all seems more of a movement to prevent the presidency being handed down from Kocharian to Sargsyan and for part of the opposition, Levon Ter-Petrossian is the only figure able to do that.

   Moreover, what makes this different is that there is the added dimension of the “Karabakh clan.” That is, they say, Armenia has been ruled by an ethnic Armenian from outside the country for the past ten years, is about to be replaced by another one, and they only think of Karabakh and “their own” rather than Armenia.

   Unfortunately, this seems to be the main thrust of opposition rhetoric for the past five years and while discontent about that might there for many people, I’m not sure it’s reason enough to say, sure, let’s overthrow the government headed by them. This is especially the case as they didn’t in 2003 and the socio-economic situation is better today than it was then and certainly since Levon was in power.

   However, many people consider that as someone who was not heard of or seen for nearly ten years, he is effectively “new” in the Armenian scheme of things.

   There are probably no other new political forces or alternatives that have sprung up apart from Orinats Yerkir and Baghdasarian is too young, too populist and known for changing his position depending on the wind, and Heritage’s Raffi Hovannisian is keeping a rather low profile for now, probably given that he couldn’t run.

   So, whether Ter-Petrossian can succeed or not, I really don’t know. The international community has effectively given the green light for a Sargsyan presidency and while there are apparently defections from the government camp to Ter-Petrossian’s, most of these guys were formerly close to him anyway. They’re also not enough, in my opinion, even if they do make good copy.

   Of course, we don’t know what’s going on being closed doors, but as impressive as being able to drag an average of 20,000 people out onto the streets each day is for Armenia, something more needs to happen for Ter-Petrossian to be able to do…

   Well, that’s what we don’t know. What does he intend to do? What are his goals? For the CEC to backtrack on their initial final vote tally? For Kocharian and Serge to run away? For the Constitutional Court to rule in his favor? For the whole governmental structure to defect? To storm a building eventually? What?

   Anyway, my opinion changes constantly which is probably a sign that the situation is unpredictable or that the propaganda disseminated by the pro-opposition press is working, I don’t know. Last weekend I thought that everything was going well for Ter-Petrossian. Today I just wondered how long they can keep these people there in Liberty Square to take them on 40 minute marches in a circle.

   Yes, I know it’s all meant to increase the number of people he can gather, but today I saw no sign of that. In fact, many were people I knew by face as I photographed them during the 2003 and 2004 opposition protests, while the newer faces were the same guys as at the weekend. The size of the crowd had also shrunk, I’d say. Moreover, most pedestrians they passed while marching were either bemused, indifferent or just found it all somewhat amusing.

   In fact, the only feeling I had today was that this was going nowhere and sooner or later will just end. What makes this hard to say for sure is that something entirely different might happen tomorrow or the next day. Basically, today I felt that all of this was pointless and can’t succeed. On the other hand, from what I’ve seen of Ter-Petrossian so far I’d say it would be a huge mistake to underestimate him.

   The only thing that some visiting foreign journalists said about him when they were over for the election and the following week is that his ego, arrogance and self-confidence might also be his undoing. To be honest, even if I’m repeating myself again, I really don’t know, and I’m sure this confusion is part of his strategy as well. Even so, if there’s a plan and an end game, it’s probably about time we caught sight of it by now.
3. Paul 02.28.08 / 9pm

   I agree. This has been going on so long, it can’t keep up much longer. Even the most dedicated crowd will not be able to keep up like this forever. I personally think LTP should accept some sort of mediation and work his way in from there- all these statements about leaving the square when he can enter the presidential palace are just too much. As pointed out, LTP didn’t win this election either and for a democratic movement he’s taking too far a hard-line position on why he should be the only one to come out on top in this. He’ll have much more negotiating power if he did it now instead of waiting for things to fizzle out. Then again, as mentioned we don’t know what is going on behind the scenes but I’m getting tired of rally after rally with nothing happening. At least over the weekend there were resignations to keep things going and a sense of action and excitement, and then another bump from the Serge rally’s apparent failure, but what else will come along? I mean I’m so far away so I have no idea what it’s like there but as these commentators or saying this just seem like it can keep going. You never know what might along to keep it afloat but I can’t forsee anything huge to do just that. I really hope there is an endgame in mind because otherwise this is getting rather indulgent and frivolous- especially since this is clearly less about democracy and more about Levon. I still am glad to see the government getting shaken up by this since they need to see they can’t get away with fraud so easily, but how much is this really about that anymore?
4. GT 02.28.08 / 10pm

   this is of course not 88. The goal is different, the level of unity is different. But you guys have no idea how long it can go….
5. Aram 02.28.08 / 10pm

   Paul - Why is there any assumption that Levon’s is a democratic movement?
6. Paul 02.28.08 / 11pm

   “Why is there any assumption that Levon’s is a democratic movement?”

   There is no assuption coming from me that it is a democratic movement. Irony doesn’t across well on the internet.
   I was trying to say a true democratic movement would be focuses on new, free and fair elections (though the way Sargsyan has all these state aparatuses to abuse at his disposal, as was done the first time around, how free of one can we really hope for?). It should not be focuses on crowning Levon the new president, which is what this has been all about. Such an objective is unlikely to result in a successful end.
   I’m hearing a lot of differing views on who is more corrupt- Serge or Levon. I think in his time Levon was certainly bad, but I’ve heard a lot of things from people who actively do business and live in Armenia today who have made a compelling case for Serge as well. I do think that times are different and that Levon will have a harder time being- at the very least- as corrupt as he once was in a second time around, but maybe I’m too optimistic? There are a lot of people watching what they do, whomever’s in power… How on earth Levon expects to topple this government to get to that point though I don’t know.
7. Aram 02.28.08 / 11pm

   OK Maybe I misunderstood a line in your previous post. Apologies. I agree with you in that I also do not see any endgame in which Levon is crowned president. Which brings up the million dollar question, what is Levon’s goal/purpose? I do not ask facetiously, BTW.
8. Onnik 02.29.08 / 1am

   The goal is different, the level of unity is different. But you guys have no idea how long it can go….

   Even foreign journalists were mentioning to me at the beginning of the week that the crowd is getting smaller. Plus, I’ve seen enough of these marches to know that either a) less and less people are eventually going to show up or b) the patience of Kocharian and Serge will wear thin enough for them to stop all of this immediately.

   Yes, assuming they have the support of the police, but you know, I see no sign of the government structure crumbling. Yes, I’m not privy to what’s happening behind the scenes, but something needs to happen or I think anywhere in the world election day becomes just a distant memory.

   Anyway, can one suppose that most people attending these rallies at 3pm in the week are unemployed? Not that this means anything, but it’s not as if the 20,000 becomes 50 or 100,000 at the weekend. Something needs to keep the momentum going, and with each passing day and week, that need becomes greater still.

   It’s interesting, though. In Liberty Square it’s like you’ve entered a different world of protesting against the government, but all around in the center, in the districts of Yerevan, it’s life as normal. It feels like two different worlds. Anyway, we’ll see. Like I said, it would be wrong to underestimate Levon Ter-Petrossian and for sure, the spirit of those around him seems as naturally high as it’s ever been.
9. Elin 02.29.08 / 2am

   I just wanted to thank you for the information posted on this site. I’ve been following this thing from the start, but short of the L.A. Armenian news reports, it’s been difficult to find information. Keep up the good work!!

   - I have to say that as much of a feminist as I am, I really enjoyed your “babe” factor article. And I agree. It’s just good PR.

   My 2 cents:
   This has sort of turned into the “anybody but Bush” political landscape that we saw here in 2004. - And I really hope that the Armenian version has a better ending.

   For what it’s worth, it is very moving and at least inspiring to see that Armenia is (at least partially) politically awake and alive, and is NOT just accepting an obviously fraudulent election as people did here in 2004.

   I know that Levon was not a “hreshtak”, but he certainly wasn’t as corrupt as the current administration is.
   So I’m pulling for him - because short of him, I don’t see any other political force alive today that has a chance of defeating Kockarian. And maybe I’m being overly optimistic, but I do believe that Levon does care about the people.

   Again,
   thanks for the info and the good work!
   Take care.

   Elin
10. GT 02.29.08 / 4am

    ok, I hate to predict this aloud here, but here are the usual scenarios: 1st scenario that did not realize, is western “democracies” rise a hell over undemocratic elections and government forced to resign.
    2nd scenario is when both sides stubbornly continue the fight until first blood is spilled. Whoever does that is probably going to loose. If opposition does that, then not so overwhelming support may vanish altogether, if authorities do, then support may become really overwhelming and smash them.

    Of course there is another possibility too: the president resigns or calls for really open controllable elections. LTP has proved that he can resign, but I hardly expect it from SS.
11. Aram 02.29.08 / 10am

    GT - Just to compare: Levon resigned in the aftermath of elections that were falsified and universally condemned by the international community, after a nationwide broad-based coalition of protest, after sending tanks into the streets, etc.

    None of this (save the shortcomings in the actual carrying out of the election) exists today.
12. GT 02.29.08 / 12pm

    Yes, but he did resign actually.

    > None of this (save the shortcomings in the actual carrying out of the election) exists today.

    Exactly, during his tenure there was an opposition. These regime does not tolerate opposition. The only reason that succession of power did not go smoothly and orchestrated is because Levon came up to the stage. His status of ex-president protected him for a while, his unpredictable move caught regime by surprise and shamanic control over the crowd keeps protests going on. The only chance that country will keep evolving towards liberal democracy is if now, using this peculiar situation, power changes. You should realize the price that comes with stability and growth promised by Serj: the country is going to be an autocratic province of Russia.

    Levon falsified elections, but he never was or tried to become a dictator. He never hold all economic might of the republic concentrated in his own hands, didn’t even intended. He did not hand strategic assets of the republic to a foreign power to keep his seat. He did not sign return of land to Azerbaidjan, he merely has arisen public discussion of such possibility.
13. Onnik 02.29.08 / 4pm

    Yes, but he did resign actually.

    He resigned two years later and not because of popular demand, but because of an internal coup apparently over his position on a Karabakh solution. I think there’s a difference, especially when Vazgen Sargsyan and Kocharian were involved.

    Still, the argument is that the 1996 election made him weaker, and I suppose that’s something that would be true now. That is, because of the election protests AND the 2005 constitutional amendments, the presidency is not as strong as it was in 2003.

    Still, Kocharian weathered that, and Sargsyan still has an overwhelmingly loyal parliament. Personally speaking, while this situation has not yet ended, people should also be preparing for the next parliamentary election. Might seem a long way away, but actually, they’ll e on us soon enough — in 3 years time, in fact.
14. Elin 02.29.08 / 10pm

    If Kocharyan and Sargsyan are allowed to stay in power for 3 more years it will be that much harder to wrestle power away from them. If history has taught us anything it’s that curroption only gets more flagrant, and dictators only accumilate more power over time.

    - Not to give these illeterate scum bags too much credit, but they are attempting to establish complete dictatorship; Kocharyan demonstrated that he owns the legal authorities, and most of the courts - granted he’s no Stalin, or a mulah, - (and I’m talking about both Kocharyan and Sargsyan combined as to me they might as well be the same person.)

    I’m not a huge Levon supporter, but again, at the present moment he has the greatest chance to end their rule.
    If there was another prominent figure present in Armenia today, I’d be pulling for him/her.

    A lot can happen in 3 years time: more people can be murderred, treacherous agreements can be put into effect, and the county might be sold wholesale to the highest bidder. 3 years is plenty of time to cement the current rule, and ensure that no other movement has a chance to get this big.
15. Aram 02.29.08 / 11pm

    Elin, let’s assume that Serj and Rob are the devil incarnate. What reason does anyone have to believe that by replacing the head with another one (let’s say Levon) will change the system? If it is the system you wish to change, I would suggest not wasting your time supporting those who
    1) created it
    2) proved they had no interest in fixing it when they were all-powerful
    3) have not presented anything but an “I hate your enemy as much as you, therefore vote for me” campaign

    I for one am glad that a grand majority of the Armenian nation is not naive enough to follow proven-bankrupt words from a proven morally bankrupt shyster.

    The fight against all the negative elements in Armenian governance (and there are many) require political will and hard work. Neither of which are being demonstrated today, unfortunately.
16. GT 03.01.08 / 1am

    >The fight against all the negative elements in Armenian governance (and there are many) require political will and hard work. Neither of which are being demonstrated today, unfortunately.

    Aram, typical armenian ranting. I also wish God himself came down and won Armenian elections. But he is nowhere to seen (never was). What you have now is a pair who clearly goes in direction of dictatorship, political and economical. And a guy that is so lame, that may let others (Vano, Vazgens, etc) to decide his fate.
    > 2) proved they had no interest in fixing it when they were all-powerful
    He never had that dictatorial power to fix everyone but himself, as Kocharian does.
    But he has a talent to bring out peoples indignation. Use it. Take advantage of the moment. Otherwise republic is doomed. Today it is either him or them. Tomorrow there may be no such chance for another 20 years.
17. Aram 03.01.08 / 1am

    Your point 2 makes Levon sound like a talented suicide bomber.
18. GT 03.01.08 / 1am

    > He resigned two years later and not because of popular demand, but because of an internal coup apparently over his position on a Karabakh solution. I think there’s a difference, especially when Vazgen Sargsyan and Kocharian were involved.

    He published his position publicly in the paper!.. A frank and honest vision. He probably hoped for popular support against internal coup, or thought it is his obligation to tell people why is he resigning. He went home and sit there quietly for 10 years. I doubt that it was such a diabolic calculation for come back. I have not seen him going back and forth managing his accumulated abroad assets either. Or running one of the commodity importing enterprises inside the country. If you people, can not recognize decency of his certain steps, then of course you hardly see difference between him and Rojik.
19. GT 03.01.08 / 1am

    Aram, you are right. I am worried that his bomb treat is not enough to force Serj out and it may explode. WOuld be a tragedy.
20. Elin 03.01.08 / 1am

    You know Aram, .. perhaps I have lost some of my idealism, and faith in human beings and governments, but if you are waiting for a Paruir Sevak type figure to rise out of the ashes tomorrow morning and lead the people, then you probably will be sorely dissapointed.

    At this moment in time, these are our choices: Kocharian/Sargsyan, or Levon.
    I don’t know about you, but Levon to me is the lesser of the 2 evils BY FAR!!!

    Do I wish that there was a shining new face who we could trust completely? Of course I do. Will I support this new person if/when he/she does rise out of the ashes? Absolutely!
    However, at this point this is the situation. And sometimes you have to work with what you have.
    Forgive me if I sound pragmatic but I don’t see another way out of this mess right now but to support the enemy of my enemy.
21. allen 03.01.08 / 3am

    THose are your choices only when you blind yourselves to the possibility of other choices–And thats exactly what happened during this election.

    This was made into a two horse race from the beginning by both sides and the people bought it and are still buying it.

    I have been following this election campaign since before official pre-eleciton season began (through this blog, family contacts, and other sources) and the one thing i noticed, was that the ARF, even with its paradoxical position as part of the coalition, truly gave the people that other, sensible, progressive, and honest choice. THey introduced democratic methods into the election that hitherto did not exist in the country. That party is the only thing close to a democracy in this country, even the TV station it controls provides coverage for everybody. SO why is it that when this Vahan Hovannesian ran and gave the people a viable option, he was ignored? and is continuously being ignored?

    In my opinion the real dissapointment here is that the choices exist, but both LTP and Serzh/Kocharian have spent alot of time, energy, and money covering them up for their own personal gains.
22. Onnik 03.01.08 / 3am

    Allen, I agree with you that the presidential election was not democratic from even before the official pre-election campaign began and I also agree that both Sargsyan and Ter-Petrossian, as well as their supporters in the governmental and opposition press, set out to make it into this struggle for power.

    However, while I accept that and acknowledge it, as we’re in that situation we can now only include that aspect of the presidential election as a side note. This is what happened and this is what is upon us now. On the other hand, critics of the system would probably argue that had this election been treated more democratically, there would have been the same outcome on election day, but without the means to protest it.

    I don’t know. It’s not a situation to be happy with, but that’s what we have now and I suppose that is now the most pressing issue to contend with. I also suppose there will be those who might rightfully argue that this situation was also unavoidable.
23. Onnik 03.01.08 / 3am

    If you people, can not recognize decency of his certain steps, then of course you hardly see difference between him and Rojik.

    I think this argument about choosing between the “lesser of two evils” is not correct, and not least because which is the worst and better is subjective. On the other hand, regardless of the arguments about who is better, the main point is quite simple. The law should determine the outcome of this. Some might not believe it works, and I understand why, but the force that shows themselves able to push the system will gain the respect of many internal and external forces.

    Besides, we might be surprised. Pushing the system even when everything is against you does work sometimes, and when it doesn’t, it highlights the deficiencies of the system which in effect can lend credibility and justify future actions. You may not think that matters in the Armenian scheme of things, but for how the international media covers events and how the international community response — something that is of vital importance — it does.
24. Michael Lalpin 03.01.08 / 4am

    As a non voting observer with an interest of retiring in Armenia from diaspora with investments in mind, the presidential elections since the beginning, have been a concern of mine for purely selfish reasons.
    During several visits to Armenia since 1975, the latest in Dec.07, I have witnessed the changes first hand.
    The various authorities I came accross and had dealings with, since my first visit, have one thing in common… what’s in it for me?- which I consider no different to other authorities I dealt with in several, so called advanced, other countries!
    (the degree of refinment, in accepting considerations, differred only in the forms as to how to ask and receive the compensations).
    Watching the outcome and the happenings of the post election times, here are some impressions that a near assimilated Armenian can provide.
    1. The emotive outbursts of the above commentaries are as they should be…in the heat of argument!
    2. Why are we expecting a saviour with untarnished background and superman powers to lead Armenia?
    3. Can we, as a nation and individuals, BE RSPECTFUL to
    whomever might take the leadership of Armenia, without resorting to disrespectful and belittling name calling?
    4. Having seen the spectacles on the tube in liberty square and the stances taken by the current government in their responses…my impressions are that, the population in the liberty square with a lofty idealism of utopian proportions, will save our morally decadent situation from all the ills, if only the opposition can take the helm?
    5. WHAT WERE the israeli flags doing during yesterday’s liberty square demonstrations is a BIG puzzle to me?
    6. If I had to form an opinion as to whom I would rather trust as a statesman/ruler ?…
    Having seen the behaviour and statements made by Levon Der Bedrossian on the stage in liberty square, then seeing Robert Kotcharyan during his interview on Haylour…patience that is essential to ward off bloodshed!
    It was obvious as to who was acting more as a president.
    7. It suits Der Bedrossian to create as much confusion as possible in the present situation, hoping for a blow out!
    What else is left for him since he declared victory even before the elections took place?…
    With the hope that all this will subside and I will be able to live peacfully, my last years in Armenia…

Powered by Hemingway flavored Wordpress. Modified by Oneworld Multimedia.

Entries RSS Comments RSS