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1. GT 02.27.08 / 4pm

   i do not agree to call what is going on in Armenia a color revolution. One important ingredient is absent, support from abroad. Quite contrary to what happened in Georgia and Ukraine, both sides (Russia/West) are siding with the authorities.
   What is clear, that in majority of the post-Soviet republics vote counting can not be counted on. So it is not about lack of democracy its about lack of valid democratic mechanisms. Nobody can tell certainly how many votes one or another candidate gathered. And foreign observers opinion just doesnt prove anything either. Democracy is being made on streets. Barbarian democracy if you wish.
2. Onnik 02.27.08 / 5pm

   I’m guessing that democracy is never made on the streets. It can only be made according to the law and in polling stations. Besides, Ter-Petrossian did not win, especially with the 65-70 percent he tells Liberty Square he received. Then again, given that he also told them they numbered 500,000 in the 10,000 square meter area he either knows he’s lying or has illusions of grandeur.

   Actually, that’s always been his downfall. His arrogance and ego are very developed and likely to create problems for him later. When remains to be seen.

   Anyway, as for outside support, we don’t know for sure what’s going on here. Certainly, money and expertise from outside the radical opposition is being used, but whether that’s coming from his supporters or external forces other than sympathetic ethnic Armenian businessmen inside the country or abroad remains to be seen.

   Anyway, colored revolutions actually don’t need support from abroad, but I suppose it helps. Anyway, the point is that it’s not necessary although it usually marks the difference between peaceful and violent attempts at regime change. It’s a lovely idea to think this is all about democracy in Armenia, but as the leaders of the protests have anything but a track record in standing for democratic ideals, it seems a bit unlikely.

   http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Color_revolution

   It’s just an attempt at usurping power and not even necessarily changing the system. Instead it is about who heads the system. The fact that Ter-Petrossian is reliant on the support and defection of key components of a corrupt system in much the same way they deserted him in 1998 raises some serious concerns that nothing would change in the event of his success.

   On the other hand, I suppose the very fact that leadership can be changed by protests might keep future governments on their toes in the future. Still, let’s see. It’s up to citizens here to sort out this mess and as they say, the authorities merely represent the reality in society. However, most citizens remain indifferent or are tired of this battle between two minorities in the country.

   Unfortunately, as we now have an increasingly politically unstable country with much polarization and hatred between groups, I guess we can look forward to that as the defining aspect of whoever heads the next administration. Probably this situation is now the number one problem facing Armenia that needs to be resolved.
3. GT 02.27.08 / 11pm

   Hmm, Onnik, you missed my point. I am not talking about Levon. I am talking about thousands of people who go every day to streets, who sleep in tents who are ready to risk their lives. They know for sure that the law DOESNT WORK under RK and SS. I am not talking about how many votes Levon received, I am saying that you do not know how many. But these people want they voice heard, their vote counted, their opinion taken into account. Levon is not an issue. Levon is just a catalyst. Vazgen does not have the charisma to bring that out in people, Levon does. People want change, they want end of sly regime, which smoothly gathered everything in country into their hands. Everything.

   As for the foreign support I think you are wrong too or naive. Georgia and Ukraine were wrestled out of Russian sphere of influence by all possible means, diplomatic support, moral support, special forced, money, big money, Soros level money (which is only the visible part). It is a big game, call it cold war or just geopolitics. Armenia does not get the same attention and opposition does not get that support because West knows, no matter who is the president, Armenia would not suicide betraying Russian interests.
4. Onnik 02.27.08 / 11pm

   Actually, I think the experience of the post-Soviet space has shown us that it’s naive to think of something as advanced as a genuine internal pro-democracy movement in a culture where no real democratic thought exists at all. Still, maybe the real behind-the-scenes story will come out years later and then we’ll know.

   Anyway, it all actually appears to be only about regime change and not overhauling the system, and these protests would have been going on even if the vote had been squeaky clean. Ter-Petrossian’s claims to have attracted 65-70 percent of the vote appear testimony to that for me, but anyway.

   Still, like the vast majority of the population I’m just watching. As I’ve commented on other blogs — namely The Armenian Observer — recently, this is ultimately an internal matter — regardless of whether any of the sides have support from outside — and one fought by two minorities with a majority confused, concerned or apathetic in between.

   What will be, will be. Regardless, I do agree that Ter-Petrossian’s charisma, albeit at times a simple one given that the crowd seems to spend most of its time chanting the first names of people mentioned from the podium, has proven quite effective in galvanizing the largest opposition gatherings here since the 2003 presidential election.

   Maybe they’ve even now surpassed that at times. Anyway, ultimately, my only hope is that whatever happens won’t tear the country apart or end in bloodshed. I think that’s the real test and one I really hope the country passes with flying colors. However, I will be remarkably impressed if, for example, the Constitutional Court were to rule that a second round should have been called.

   Kocharian and Serge will be angry, no doubt, but that would be one possible legal way out of this stand off. Of course, that presupposes that a second round should have been called, but I think that most people think it should have been. On the other hand, I also believe it’s time the language of hate needs to be toned down.

   Let’s put it like it like this. If Ter-Petrossian has gone so far it’s impossible for him to back down, Serge and Kocharian aren’t able to take a more moderate position to end the matter simply because of the rhetoric coming out of the Ter-Petrossian camp since September 2007. Both sides need to have a way out so that for either it’s not a matter of freedom or imprisonment, or maybe even life or death.

   Anyway, the language of democracy should not be one suffocated by hate, threats, blackmail and confrontation. Sorry, but I don’t think that’s how things should be. Yes, you could argue that you can’t get the guys in Liberty Square incensed enough to be willing to lay down their lives, but then again, that’s not a genuine or peaceful democratic revolution either.

   Dunno, like I said, what will be will be. I just hope it all ends with the best interests of the country in mind.
5. GT 02.28.08 / 1am

   Agreed. But LTP did not go so far in the last 10 days. The moment he came out of seclusion he already was beyond point of no return. Presidency or nothing. He does not aspire, can not aspire for the post of PM or share power with Robert. This is the problem with LTP leading opposition. But it is the problem of opposition, skillfully created by regime, that unless a figure like LTP came out they were completely toothless.
6. Onnik 02.28.08 / 1am

   Well, I just hope a bloody clash can be averted that’s all. I don’t think that will benefit anyone and I think the point about escalating a confrontation is for each side to leave the other a way out. That’s how it was in Georgia to allow a smooth hand over of power, for example, and from the authorities point of view, persecuting the opposition isn’t going to help anyone either. There are usually “rules” for the game in Armenia, but they all seem to have been thrown out the window long ago. Still, at least the authorities (famous last words) haven’t sent in the Interior troops yet or the opposition rushed a building.

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