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• Armenia’s Bloody Saturday
• Armenia: No Revolution Likely
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• OSCE: Both Sides To Blame, Both Sides Armed

1. Onnik 02.26.08 / 10pm

   I only watched 30 seconds of Kocharian’s interview on H1 as I don’t think any state of emergency is going to be declared. First of all, as in Georgia, there would have to be clashes first, I think, or a situation where the police and internal security ministries are unable to control the situation which is not what we’re faced with now. Moreover, I wouldn’t expect one to be declared in an interview. It would likely be billed as a live broadcast to the nation.

   Still, I’m not sitting through the whole interview as I have work to do. From looking at the opening of Haylur seems to me that the authorities still hopes to convince the population that everything is under control and to stay away from opposition rallies. If they can’t do that one supposes an attempt to disperse people from Liberty Square during the night sometime, and depending on the success of that a possible declaration of a state of emergency if members of Yerkrapah get involved.

   As soon as it turns violent is when state of emergencies are usually declared, I think, but I might be speaking too soon. However, lack of a lead up to Kocharian’s interview elsewhere makes me think not. At most, I think we’re still at the stage of warnings, though. Let’s see.
2. Observer 02.27.08 / 3am

   Yeah - I watched the recording of the interview - no repressions and more warnings all right. I guess I was too early in my conclusions, and I guess, Kocharyan and Sargsyan are much more democratic then Ter-Petrossian ever was, considering his 1996 record and open attacks at everyone who doesn’t join him only recently. What Kocharyan said however is - that he’ll give opposition a couple of more days and then put an end to the protests.

   With international recognition of the election results, I don’t think anyone can really blame him - unless the methods of dispersing the crowd do not result in massive injuries or shootout.
3. Onnik 02.27.08 / 3am

   Well, you know, I wasn’t here for the 1996 election and I’m not sure if the army was called in before or after the parliament building was rushed. Generally there needs to be something like the use of force in an attempt to seize power for a state of emergency to be called.

   Even then, such a situation is declared when the situation is out of control and the internal police and security services can’t handle the situation. Of course, in post-Soviet countries, the tendency to use the military as a show of strength is also great, but the international community would only accept it as a last resort.

   On that, it’s interesting to ponder the idea of whether the authorities are in control of the situation. The opposition says no, which is why no use of force to disperse protesters has happened yet, but the guys from the international media I’ve spoken to think differently.

   They actually think that the riot police will be sent in at some point, and judging from what you’ve said, Kocharian has pretty much made that clear. Of course, he could be bluffing but he doesn’t strike me as someone who does that too often if at all.

   As for democracy, well yeah, we seem to be in a different situation than were were in 2004 when force was used, but there are some differences here so I’m not about to get too carried away. Mainly, this is a post-election situation and the international community is watching.

   If and when they do go in, it will be interesting to see if the rights of journalists are observed when covering any dispersal and also, if they use totally-over-the-top methods or only as much force as they need to in order to minimize casualties.

   Still, you’re right, the presence of presumably armed Yerkrapah members doesn’t bode well here. It also presupposes that the authorities have the upper hand. Either way, however, I suppose many of us are waiting to see when exactly the standoff ends in violence.

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