Elections are not a mechanism for legitimacy-measuring yet, and it’s not February 19 that will be the determining factor for legitimacy. Elections must not only be conducted as a legal process but also they should be free and fair. And elections are acknowledged fair and free in various ways, and different assessments can be heard before the elections and after that. It is objectively impossible to measure legitimacy – any authorities can be considered legitimate if the voters acknowledge their right for legitimate power. Is it possible for a president elected as a result of unfair and not free elections to become legitimate? Getting back to the definition of legitimacy, it should be mentioned that yes, whoever gets elected will be considered legitimate since, according to the culture formed in Armenia, he will automatically obtain the right to rule. Sure, it is not about the constitutional right to rule but about the fact that, on an informal level, he will be obeyed by the representatives of the economic world, the political field, various bureaucratic officials, putting the presidential order above the implementation of the obligations reserved for them by the law. We can find those facts in the incumbent presidential power – even the entrepreneurs accept his power, which is proven by the regular gatherings (which is weird) at the presidential office. These facts, and the hectic wish of a lot of people to obey the RA president, automatically make a president legitimate, no matter how he has been elected.

http://www.echannel.am/?topic_id=1343&PHPSESSID=3cc069be8de01d0d7b71fe9f30a6e584

As for whether he will be a legitimate president for Armenia, however, only citizens can decide that and it depends on whether he would have won in a second round. On that, it’s impossible to tell unless the opposition can get some of the results annulled and new voting called in problem precincts.

“…announced the RA First President Levon Ter-Petrosyan, appealing to the 200 thousand participants of the gathering. ”

200,000?!

Like I said, this is why I never considered the election to stand a hope in hell of being democratic as we know it. For Sargsyan it was about a transfer of power using administrative resources and for Ter-Petrossian about returning to power using street protests by 20-30,000 to do so.

For civil society, too, it was about preventing Serge becoming president at any cost and bringing back Levon, and for those in the pro-government media it was about preventing that. It was about two undemocratic forces against another and was always going to be with Ter-Petrossian involved.

Still, like I said, I consider that a second round should have been called. I think that Sargsyan did not make it past the 50+1 threshold and that as with last year, as much as 20 percentage points were inflated by fraud and especially vote bribes. In order to change this situation, as the OSCE-ODIHR advised, it is now time to try to get the vote annulled in some precincts.

Anyway, reports from the BBC put Ter-Petrossian’s rally at 15,000 although I’d say more. Given that his team alleged he had “won” Yerevan, I don’t see much evidence of that so far. I also seem to remember that him saying he had 90 percent of the security services on his side too. Again, seems like he wasn’t being very honest about either.

Anyway, I think he hoped for “revolution” with international backing based on his line on Azerbaijan and Turkey, but it didn’t work. Still, let’s see. It’s far from over until his demonstrations either fizzle out or end in violence. The one thing in his favor, however, is that his old friend, Gagik Harutyunyan, is head of the Constitutional Court, was his Vice President and appointed to his current position by his former ally.

Ironically, I daresay Harutyunyan also helped Ter-Petrossian falsify the 1996 election, but his supporters maintain he is still close to Levon. As such, it does amaze me to hear Ter-Petrossian and his supporters talk of democracy. Anyway, what will be, but it’s not my fight and I’ve no intention of putting my neck on the line in a battle to be staged between Ter-Petrossian’s undemocratic forces and their counterparts on Sargsyan’s side.

That will change when I see evidence of a more mature attempt to present an alternative to the present system by Ter-Petrossian and co.

Tamar, well, I will be very happy if that happens because otherwise civil society will lose credibility. It must have proof and it must use the law and Armenia’s international obligations to change the situation. Indeed, this is the only way things change, but yes, I know it’s slow.

Meanwhile, on the subject of the courts, the OSCE-ODIHR concluded that yesterday’s presidential election was largely in line with international standards, but shortcomings remain. They also said that the courts must be used by the opposition and criticized Ter-Petrossian for organizing today’s rally weeks in advance.

My take? Serge didn’t get over 50 percent of the vote and nor did Levon. Serge “probably” got more votes than Levon, but a second round should have been called. However, gut reaction from most people I’ve spoken to is one of indifference or, well, it’s not good, but it’s not bad either.

The problem is that election day itself was never in Ter-Petrossian’s mind. It was about the street protests afterwards, but with the international community not backing him he has only three options.

i) use the courts while holding rallies at the same time as a bit of leverage.

ii) hold rallies and march around until people get bored and it all ends a few weeks later.

iii) hold rallies and seize a building.

Anyway, some of us are still concerned about the possibility of clashes, but let’s see. More later, but for now, just to say that when I was outside the Matenadaran at 3pm there were less people than Demirchian gathered in 2003. That could have changed later, however.

The fact that these videos exist is already a good sign, but the law must be followed until all possibilities are exhausted. It is also important to note again that the clear picture will come from a variety sources. The main issue is was the outcome of the vote distorted and for that, I have to rely on the assessment of non-partisan domestic and international observers.

As for violence, I don’t doubt there was some. Indeed, there were also reports fo Ter-Petrossian’s people attacking and intimidating PECs. Did anyone expect there wouldn’t be trouble? I certainly didn’t, but I say again, I saw no problems at the polling stations I was at for the time I was there.

And that I’m afraid, is all this post is about. If you don’t like it, what do you want me to do? Make up stories like I’m sure was also done yesterday. Anyway, this election was only about a battle. A corrupt former elite trying to return to power and a corrupt present elite trying to maintain it. On that basis alone, I lost hope in this election sometime towards the end of last year.

Now what most impartial observers are waiting for is to read the OSCE/ODIHR preliminary report. Plus, of course, to see whether clashes now occur on the streets. If Ter-Petrossian gathers 30-40,000 it’s not going to change anything or even indicate a high level of support in society. If he gets 100,000 then it’s another matter entirely. I

will also talk to some others and as I said, try to assess the situation, but for now, while I don’t believe Levon won, I also don’t believe Serge got enough votes to avoid a second round. On the other hand, none of us as individuals have a clear picture of the true voting preferences of the electorate.

This is why IYC and OSCE/ODIHR are so important.

Indeed, civil society as a whole here took sides pretty much as soon as Ter-Petrossian returned even though I never saw much sign of that being reflected ins society. However, as I’ve said before, while the situation was calm at the polling stations I was at, that’s not to say I don’t believe falsification didn’t occur. That said, it is now up to the opposition to prove it and in particular, I am waiting on the OSCE/ODIHR report.

Then I will try tor each my own conclusion although at the moment it veers towards Serge’s vote being inflated to avoid a second round. I certainly don’t believe Ter-Petrossian won or even got close. Besides, for them and many in civil society it was never about that. It was only about street protests the day after polling day.

Anyway, I want to hear what the international observers say first, but given that their statements are generally watered down according to political objectives, it is important to read their interim report which will be made available at the same time.

Also, at the polling stations I was at, there were some IYC observers (eventually) and the proxies for Ter-Petrossian, Serge Sargsyan and Vazgen Manukian. They were even allowed to film events although once again, I have to say that I am concerned that I saw only 2 fill out parallel voter count sheets.

I’d still like to know what that is because it’s a glaring omission, in my opinion.

I am not trying to be hard on Levon, I think the government was responsible for a lot of bad stuff from what little I know. I really don’t know if the under 20%results for Levon matches reality or not and think if he’s going to make a serious go of these protests he has to do these things. But is that good for the country? Is massive government fraud good for the country? Is it better to sacrifice protesting some fraud in a election to have stability and just accept as winner a guy who probably would have won without the fraud? I don’t know a lot of (rambling) questions.

The thing I am most interested in though is that 54% for Levon exit poll. While an exit poll certainly can result with widely different results than the actual election, what is behind that huge disparity? Is the one favorable to the Levon connected to him or his supporters in any way? I say this because while polls leading up to the vote always had him as below 20%, the other exit poll has him around that level, and now there’s this random one with him at a seemingly astronomical 54%. It creates a convenient branch for Levon to hold on to indicating maybe he really was the winner despite everything else indicating otherwise and to fuel his protests. Clearly if both exit polls said 50+ for Serge he really wouldn’t have much of a leg to stand on (though he’d still have his parade) but this does make you wonder. And who knows- maybe it even is the more correct one and Serge did lose…