Comments on: The Numbers Game http://blog.oneworld.am/2008/02/16/the-numbers-game/ News, Photography, Blogs & Analysis Sun, 12 Feb 2012 14:35:07 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.5 By: Armenia Election Monitor 2008 » Blog Archive » Dashnak Youth Campaign for Vahan Hovannisian http://blog.oneworld.am/2008/02/16/the-numbers-game/#comment-2914 Armenia Election Monitor 2008 » Blog Archive » Dashnak Youth Campaign for Vahan Hovannisian Sun, 17 Feb 2008 20:36:10 +0000 http://blog.oneworld.am/2008/02/16/the-numbers-game/#comment-2914 [...] of all these rallies which usually don’t amount to much more than mutual mudslinging and playing the numbers game, it was nice to start the day with a rally by a few hundred youth from the Armenian Revolutionary [...] […] of all these rallies which usually don’t amount to much more than mutual mudslinging and playing the numbers game, it was nice to start the day with a rally by a few hundred youth from the Armenian Revolutionary […]

]]> By: Armenia Election Monitor 2008 » Blog Archive » Levon Ter-Petrossian’s Final Pre-Election Campaign Meeting http://blog.oneworld.am/2008/02/16/the-numbers-game/#comment-2875 Armenia Election Monitor 2008 » Blog Archive » Levon Ter-Petrossian’s Final Pre-Election Campaign Meeting Sat, 16 Feb 2008 20:49:58 +0000 http://blog.oneworld.am/2008/02/16/the-numbers-game/#comment-2875 [...] think it was much different than last week’s. Regardless, according to E-Channel’s guide to estimating crowds in Liberty Square, I’d put it at [...] […] think it was much different than last week’s. Regardless, according to E-Channel’s guide to estimating crowds in Liberty Square, I’d put it at […]

]]> By: Onnik http://blog.oneworld.am/2008/02/16/the-numbers-game/#comment-2840 Onnik Sat, 16 Feb 2008 08:49:16 +0000 http://blog.oneworld.am/2008/02/16/the-numbers-game/#comment-2840 I would say that many of us are very fed up with propaganda from both sides and the fact that things have become so polarized that some of us fear the worst on or after election day and I'm not referring to the results. I would say that many of us are very fed up with propaganda from both sides and the fact that things have become so polarized that some of us fear the worst on or after election day and I’m not referring to the results.

]]> By: GT http://blog.oneworld.am/2008/02/16/the-numbers-game/#comment-2832 GT Sat, 16 Feb 2008 07:56:28 +0000 http://blog.oneworld.am/2008/02/16/the-numbers-game/#comment-2832 Well, you refuse to note irony in my comments, or the atmosphere there in Yerevan is getting so heated that there is no place for it. Well, you refuse to note irony in my comments, or the atmosphere there in Yerevan is getting so heated that there is no place for it.

]]> By: Onnik http://blog.oneworld.am/2008/02/16/the-numbers-game/#comment-2821 Onnik Sat, 16 Feb 2008 07:11:17 +0000 http://blog.oneworld.am/2008/02/16/the-numbers-game/#comment-2821 GT, I'm telling you -- as will every other INDEPENDENT observer -- what the situation is. The fact that you want Ter-Petrossian to have gathered many mroe than he did is influencing your judgment. Still, you've been presented with enough informationa nd you still refuse to accept it, so whatever. It's not new, and the same has been happening in Georgia recently. Still, it is laughable how people think that a crowd of 100,000 can be gathered in an area of 10,000 square meters. Meanwhile, I can tell you for a fact. There weren't. The 150,000 attendance is even more ridiculous but shows the level of political maturity in the Ter-Petrossian camp, one guesses. GT, I’m telling you — as will every other INDEPENDENT observer — what the situation is. The fact that you want Ter-Petrossian to have gathered many mroe than he did is influencing your judgment.

Still, you’ve been presented with enough informationa nd you still refuse to accept it, so whatever. It’s not new, and the same has been happening in Georgia recently.

Still, it is laughable how people think that a crowd of 100,000 can be gathered in an area of 10,000 square meters. Meanwhile, I can tell you for a fact.

There weren’t.

The 150,000 attendance is even more ridiculous but shows the level of political maturity in the Ter-Petrossian camp, one guesses.

]]> By: GT http://blog.oneworld.am/2008/02/16/the-numbers-game/#comment-2782 GT Fri, 15 Feb 2008 23:50:05 +0000 http://blog.oneworld.am/2008/02/16/the-numbers-game/#comment-2782 I agree that calculating square meters is an accurate estimate, but 3-4 person per square meter seems to be a very low number. I havent been to recent meetings, but in 88-89 the crowd could be so dense that people fainted and sometimes it was difficult to rise a hand. Anyway, the folklore is folklore and if you want to call a person reach in Armenia you dont say he got 356 thousand euros in his bank account, you simply say he is a millionaire... I agree that calculating square meters is an accurate estimate, but 3-4 person per square meter seems to be a very low number. I havent been to recent meetings, but in 88-89 the crowd could be so dense that people fainted and sometimes it was difficult to rise a hand. Anyway, the folklore is folklore and if you want to call a person reach in Armenia you dont say he got 356 thousand euros in his bank account, you simply say he is a millionaire…

]]> By: Onnik http://blog.oneworld.am/2008/02/16/the-numbers-game/#comment-2779 Onnik Fri, 15 Feb 2008 23:21:25 +0000 http://blog.oneworld.am/2008/02/16/the-numbers-game/#comment-2779 GT, then I suppose those estimates were greatly exaggerated as it seems as has become customary. Then, after such numbers enter folklore they become accepted as fact just as Ter-Petrossian and Artur Baghdasarian's 100,000 numbers have become among their supporters. Meanwhile, I would suppose measuring the area is more accurate than examining an aerial photo and estimating a number with a partisan eye. <blockquote>Based on the picture he got, only the space of the square in front of the opera is no more than 10 thousand square meters, and about 30 thousand people can get together only in the semi-circle. Also, he does not exclude that, in case of standing very tightly, that number can increase. If using the space of the cafes – the former green zone – and the paths, maximum 60 thousand people will fit into the Freedom Square. More people will fit in case of walk-rallies. [...] [...] All the figures exceeding one hundred thousand are absurd,” the specialist states. </blockquote> It's as simple as that, but of course, I know that the opposition won't face up to the reality and will continue to inflate the numbers. It's simply ridiculous and I'm glad that at least Vahan Hovannisian didn't play the same game. On the other hand, the police's estimate of the last LTP rally at 15,000 was also absurd. It was close to twice that. Anyway, until recently, Ter-Petrossian didn't manage to attract more than 15,000 people. AFP, Reuters and the rest of us were quite accurate. Now, after Baghdasarian and the ARF-D managed around 20,000 give or take a few thousand, Ter-Petrossian managed maybe as much as 30,000 last weekend. I've no doubt he'll manage the same tomorrow and perhaps even more. Of course, they'll inflate the figures again and before we know it some ridiculous and impossible figure will enter into radical opposition folklore among its supporters. No independent observer, analyst or journalist will take them seriously, though. Amazing that people can believe these ridiculous numbers, but it would appear that even when provided with an article in English and Armenian as well as a video I'm guessing they will still live in their dream world. And as someone who has been to many 85,000 plus rock festivals I know what anything that size looks like and nothing in nine years of being here comes even close. GT, then I suppose those estimates were greatly exaggerated as it seems as has become customary. Then, after such numbers enter folklore they become accepted as fact just as Ter-Petrossian and Artur Baghdasarian’s 100,000 numbers have become among their supporters. Meanwhile, I would suppose measuring the area is more accurate than examining an aerial photo and estimating a number with a partisan eye.

Based on the picture he got, only the space of the square in front of the opera is no more than 10 thousand square meters, and about 30 thousand people can get together only in the semi-circle. Also, he does not exclude that, in case of standing very tightly, that number can increase. If using the space of the cafes – the former green zone – and the paths, maximum 60 thousand people will fit into the Freedom Square. More people will fit in case of walk-rallies.

[…]

[…] All the figures exceeding one hundred thousand are absurd,” the specialist states.

It’s as simple as that, but of course, I know that the opposition won’t face up to the reality and will continue to inflate the numbers. It’s simply ridiculous and I’m glad that at least Vahan Hovannisian didn’t play the same game. On the other hand, the police’s estimate of the last LTP rally at 15,000 was also absurd. It was close to twice that.

Anyway, until recently, Ter-Petrossian didn’t manage to attract more than 15,000 people. AFP, Reuters and the rest of us were quite accurate. Now, after Baghdasarian and the ARF-D managed around 20,000 give or take a few thousand, Ter-Petrossian managed maybe as much as 30,000 last weekend.

I’ve no doubt he’ll manage the same tomorrow and perhaps even more. Of course, they’ll inflate the figures again and before we know it some ridiculous and impossible figure will enter into radical opposition folklore among its supporters. No independent observer, analyst or journalist will take them seriously, though.

Amazing that people can believe these ridiculous numbers, but it would appear that even when provided with an article in English and Armenian as well as a video I’m guessing they will still live in their dream world. And as someone who has been to many 85,000 plus rock festivals I know what anything that size looks like and nothing in nine years of being here comes even close.

]]> By: GT http://blog.oneworld.am/2008/02/16/the-numbers-game/#comment-2777 GT Fri, 15 Feb 2008 23:11:40 +0000 http://blog.oneworld.am/2008/02/16/the-numbers-game/#comment-2777 Onnik, there should be aerial photos of large meetings near Opera from late 1980s. Then sometimes crowd was spilling all over the area as far as the lake and there were no cafe' and other structures. The numbers cited back then were reaching 500,000 people. Anyway, aerial photos can provide pretty accurate estimate of number of people. Onnik, there should be aerial photos of large meetings near Opera from late 1980s. Then sometimes crowd was spilling all over the area as far as the lake and there were no cafe’ and other structures. The numbers cited back then were reaching 500,000 people. Anyway, aerial photos can provide pretty accurate estimate of number of people.

]]> By: Paul http://blog.oneworld.am/2008/02/16/the-numbers-game/#comment-2769 Paul Fri, 15 Feb 2008 22:12:31 +0000 http://blog.oneworld.am/2008/02/16/the-numbers-game/#comment-2769 The flash mobs I meant are good-natured usually comical ones, not the angry protesting ones. Sksela did one or two of these type things awhile back, obviously not flooding a square but similarly irreverent jokes with a political point. You can't use a mob as a scientific measure because of course mobs are mobs... western "flash mobs" are mobs with an organized and calm purpose. The flash mobs I meant are good-natured usually comical ones, not the angry protesting ones. Sksela did one or two of these type things awhile back, obviously not flooding a square but similarly irreverent jokes with a political point. You can’t use a mob as a scientific measure because of course mobs are mobs… western “flash mobs” are mobs with an organized and calm purpose.

]]> By: Onnik http://blog.oneworld.am/2008/02/16/the-numbers-game/#comment-2767 Onnik Fri, 15 Feb 2008 21:56:31 +0000 http://blog.oneworld.am/2008/02/16/the-numbers-game/#comment-2767 I think we're going to see plenty of flash mobs this weekend and likely the largest since after the 2003 presidential election on or after 20 February. To be honest, I'm really looking forward to this election being over so we can all move on. While it's not been as tense as in 2003, I think it's been nastier and has the potential to be something more volatile. Anyway, the last two days of campaigning are now pretty much upon us and I'm so grateful for that. I think we’re going to see plenty of flash mobs this weekend and likely the largest since after the 2003 presidential election on or after 20 February.

To be honest, I’m really looking forward to this election being over so we can all move on. While it’s not been as tense as in 2003, I think it’s been nastier and has the potential to be something more volatile.

Anyway, the last two days of campaigning are now pretty much upon us and I’m so grateful for that.

]]> By: Paul http://blog.oneworld.am/2008/02/16/the-numbers-game/#comment-2763 Paul Fri, 15 Feb 2008 21:36:33 +0000 http://blog.oneworld.am/2008/02/16/the-numbers-game/#comment-2763 This sounds like a great idea for a flash mob. Those are popular in the west though I know there isn't sufficient structure in Armenia to actually organize such a thing, but it'd be funny to get 15,000 or so people to spontaneously fill the square and prove (maybe each through a certain way and get counted on the way in) how many can really fit in there. Or at least make it clear 100,000 is way off. This sounds like a great idea for a flash mob. Those are popular in the west though I know there isn’t sufficient structure in Armenia to actually organize such a thing, but it’d be funny to get 15,000 or so people to spontaneously fill the square and prove (maybe each through a certain way and get counted on the way in) how many can really fit in there. Or at least make it clear 100,000 is way off.

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