The Numbers Game
It’s been an unfortunate aspect of the official and unofficial campaign period ahead of next week’s presidential election in Armenia, but one that can’t be avoided. That is, it would appear that how many people you can gather in Yerevan’s Liberty Square is more important than any sociological survey and even voting on election day itself. Of course, this isn’t specific to this election, but it has become increasingly infuriating to hear estimates for the size of crowds gathered.
In October, for example, while his supporters put the number for those attending Levon Ter-Petrossian’s landmark debut public meeting in Liberty Square at 60,000, independent observers instead put it at 10-15,000. In January and February, other candidates such as Artur Baghdasarian as well as Ter-Petrossian’s team claimed 100,000. Meanwhile, the rest of us called such figures impossible, but the main question still remained unanswered.
Just how many people can Liberty Square accommodate? Thanks to help of architectural student Sergey Tonoyan, the answer finally comes from E-Channel. Great article and really useful information, guys.
“We have separated the whole territory where the citizens can stand while taking part in a gathering. It is the square in front of the opera and the neghboring roads. According to our calculations, the whole surface of that space forms 10.255 square meters. Since 3 or 4 people can stand on one square meter, the total number of people will form 30 or 40 thousand,” Sergey presents his calculations.
Based on the picture he got, only the space of the square in front of the opera is no more than 10 thousand square meters, and about 30 thousand people can get together only in the semi-circle. Also, he does not exclude that, in case of standing very tightly, that number can increase. If using the space of the cafes – the former green zone – and the paths, maximum 60 thousand people will fit into the Freedom Square. More people will fit in case of walk-rallies.
So, how many people did Levon Ter-Petrossian attract? From the photos below taken at his third rally in December, I’d say about 12-15,000 is correct. Sure, the audience looked massive from the front, but huge areas were left vacant at the sides and at the back. Moreover, density per square meter greatly reduced the further back from front people were even though perhaps 65-70 percent of the Square looked “occupied” in visual terms.
At Ter-Petrossian’s first official pre-election rally in Liberty Square, organizers started to inflate the numbers still more. According to them 100,000 filled Liberty Square although they weren’t the only ones playing the numbers game. Artur Baghdasarian did the same for his and again claimed 100,000 in attendance. In fact, from being there and using Tonoyan’s estimates, I’d say there was no more than 17-20,000.
It wasn’t until Vahan Hovannisian’s rally last week that we probably surpassed that, albeit not by much. However, the rally was visibly larger than any of Ter-Petrossian’s as well as that by Artur Baghdasarian. It was also harder to walk through indicating a far higher density of people per square meter. Unfortunately for Hovannisian, however, the next day’s rally by Ter-Petrossian surpassed that.
Although Liberty Square was not totally full it wasn’t far off the mark even with free areas to the side. However, they were smaller than before. Probably, there were 25,000 people in attendance. There might even have been 30,000, but definitely not the ridiculous 100-150,000 Ter-Petrossian’s team claim. Nonetheless the largest rally I’ve seen in Armenia in the nine years I’ve been living here. It was also the most tightly packed and difficult to manoeuvre through.
The atmosphere was also quite unlike any other albeit quiet in the areas away from immediately in front of the stage. Pretty much like a rock concert, in fact, with a revolutionary undertone.
Sergey notes that more people will fit into the Republic Square and the space near Matenadaran. However, the Freedom Square is very conventient with its position for such an event – it does not impede the traffic, creating a unique atmosphere of unity.
Just one problem. Should gathering somewhere around 1-1.5 percent of the registered electorate in one area count towards estimating a candidate’s chances at an election. Whatever happened to walking the streets campaigning and going to them rather than having them coming to you? Indeed, during last year’s parliamentary election, the largest crowd assembled by Raffi Hovannisian’s Heritage party numbered approximately 100. However, it attracted six percent of the vote.
The radical Impeachment and Republic parties, however, managed to attract 10-15,000 people during the same period for one or two rallies, but only managed 2.9 percent of the vote combined. Besides, nearly all of the three main candidates could fill Liberty Square if they want leading this election to be more focused on that than actually appealing to a far larger number of undecided voters.
Interestingly, RFE/RL quotes one Armenian Revolutionary Federation — Dashnaktsutyun (ARF-D) representative as saying that such a reality might be one by design.
The Dashnaktsutyun leader hit out at the government camp as well. “The authorities have made every effort to ensure that this [presidential] struggle takes place in an apolitical atmosphere, in the dark, at the level of slogans and rallies,” he said.
Unfortunately, this means that this weekend’s final pre-election campaign meetings by Levon Ter-Petrossian, Serge Sargsyan and Artur Baghdasarian are likely to be the largest ever. They’ll also undoubtedly be broadcast as pre-election campaign ads on the final day of campaigning on Sunday. The rest of us, however, will be waiting to see how the vote is conducted next Tuesday, what domestic and international observers conclude, and what the final vote tally will be.
Regardless, the E-Channel article is here.
Photo: © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2007-8
- Published:
- 02.16.08 / 12am by Onnik
- Category:
- 2007 Parliamentary Election, Armenia, Armenia Presidential Election 2008, Campaign, Candidates, Demonstrations, Parties, Rallies, Voting
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