Gallup Pessimistic About Presidential Election

Gallup, the leading international polling organization, provides an analysis of the 19 February presidential election and cites the results of various surveys it has conducted on corruption and the electoral process among Armenian citizens. The analysis is generally pessimistic about the outcome of the vote although it is has been more fiercely contested than in previous years.

WASHINGTON, D.C. — Until recently, the Feb. 19 presidential election in Armenia was anticipated to be largely a formality — with opposition parties weak and fragmented, current Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisian was expected to be rubber-stamped as the country’s new president. In January, however, former president Levon Ter-Petrosian entered the race, adding a viable contender that has made the campaign much more contentious.

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However, Ter-Petrosian has little credibility as the moral alternative. Armenians may remember the lack of tolerance for opposition parties during his presidency in the 1990s or the accusations of ballot rigging leveled against him in the 1996 election. Also, Ter-Petrosian’s failure to unite key opposition parties has weakened his attempts to frame himself as the clear anti-establishment choice.

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Given the considerable challenges facing the country — including the need for strong anti-corruption reform and fresh approaches to the growing conflict with Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh region — many Armenians would likely embrace an “outsider” candidate who inspires greater trust in government. But given Ter-Petrosian’s prior political machinations and the acrimonious nature of the current campaign, the election on Feb. 19 offers little promise of an antidote to the population’s political cynicism.