2008 Presidential Election Monitor

RFE/RL reports that former president Levon Ter-Petrossian has accused former parliamentary speaker and presidential candidate Artur Baghdasarian of “treason.” The somewhat less than civilized war of words comes after Baghdasarian announced in a written statement that he would not urge supporters to vote for Ter-Petrossian in the 19 February presidential election in Armenia.

Despite telling his own supporters that he has already won next week’s vote, Ter-Petrossian seems desperate to get Baghdasarian on board, especially following his endorsement by another opposition party, Heritage, earlier in the week. In such a context it is open to speculation as to why Ter-Petrossian’s outburst was necessary if he is in such a strong position. Opinion polls show both opposition leaders to be neck and neck, but trailing behind Sargsyan.

Ter-Petrosian […] seemed to anticipate this turn of events as he campaigned in Armenia’s southeastern Syunik region. Speaking at a rally in Meghri, a small town on the Iranian border, he claimed that he and Sarkisian are the only “real” election contenders and that six other candidates are simply helping the prime minister become Armenia’s next president.

“Artur Baghdasarian is threatening to join the list of those candidates,” said Ter-Petrosian. “Whatever he says, if Artur Baghdasarian doesn’t join our movement, he will play the role of a traitor, he will help Serzh Sarkisian.” The former parliament speaker would be “finished” as a politician in that case, he added.

The pro-Ter-Petrosian daily “Haykakan Zhamanak” went further, alleging in its Thursday edition that Baghdasarian has already cut a secret deal with Sarkisian that will see the two men go into the second round. “Artur Baghdasarian’s political biography shows that at critical moments he always did what was needed by Serzh Sarkisian,” charged the paper.

Baghdasarian denied and condemned the allegations as a “blackmail” in an interview with RFE/RL later in the day. “By the same token, I can say that he who doesn’t join me commits treason, that he who doesn’t join me is with Serzh or Robert [Kocharian,” he said. “But I won’t do that for now and am calling for an end to this posture.”

Debate and discussion over Baghdasarian’s decision even made it into the Armenian blogosphere with two posts from individuals on diametrically opposed sides of the political divide weighing in on the argument. Ironically, both are in agreement when it comes to dislike of the prime minister, Serge Sargsyan. However, where they disagree is with regards to Ter-Petrossian and whether other opposition candidates should support his bid to return to power.

He lost his best chance to prove that he is genuinely interested in forming united opposition bloc against current authorities, when he refused quitting the race before 9 February deadline. He now lost his second best chance, and whatever happened during second round of voting, in my eyes he lost credibility of genuine opposition politician. There were always lots of speculations around Arthur questioning his real motives. He now proved that people who were cautious in taking his words seriously had all the right reasons to do so.

http://unzipped.blogspot.com/2008/02/arthur-loser-or-best-hope-for-prime.html

Via Unzipped, I found out that the RA Presidential Candidate Artur Baghdasaryan has decided to refrain from joining any other opposition candidate in the first round of elections. This is of course understood mainly as a decision to reject the offer to support Levon Ter-Petrossian’s candidacy, which, especially after Rafffi Hovannisian and his “Heritage” party voiced their support for Ter-Petrossian, was more then expected, especially as Artur Baghdasaryan was never excluding such a possibility.

[…]

Interestingly, despite the fact, that Unzipped is rather disappointed by such a development, I think Artur Baghdasaryan is indeed behaving like a politician, and I see no reasons why he should abandon campaigning and and jump into the other train.

http://ditord.wordpress.com/2008/02/14/artur-baghdasaryan-prefers-to-run-alone/

While another less popular opposition politician did announce his support for Ter-Petrossian today — and ironically enough, New Times’ Aram Karapetian, a figure who has also been accused of collaborating with Serge Sargsyan and the government in the past — the OSCE/ODIHR Election Observation Mission (EOM) noted the increasingly antagonistic tone of Ter-Petrossian’s rhetoric in its second interim report published today.

The campaign rhetoric has at times been acrimonious. Eight candidates held campaign rallies. Most passed off peacefully, but unrest occurred at two of Levon Ter-Petrossian’s events. The OSCE/ODIHR EOM is aware of five incidents in which party or candidate premises have been damaged either through vandalism, shooting or possible arson.

[…]

[…] Unlike other candidates, Levon Ter-Petrossian frequently directed derogatory comments at the authorities.

Of course, much of the report also details serious concerns about the prime minister’s frequent abuse of administrative resources and bias in the media. Such problems have been a constant feature of every presidential and parliamentary election since 1996 and it is unfortunate that it continues unabated today. Nevertheless, from my own experience, while my son and ex-wife were asked to attend a pre-election campaign rally by the prime minister, Serge Sargsyan, they were not forced to.

In fact, my ex-wife refused and there was no pressure exerted for her to change her mind or later recriminations as a result. Of course, that is not necessarily the case for everyone and especially public sector employees. There the situation, especially in the regions, might be very different indeed.

An employee of a State institution reported to OSCE/ODIHR EOM observers that they were directed by their superior to attend one of Serzh Sargsyan’s campaign events. OSCE/ODIHR EOM observers reported that on 6 February, the day of a campaign rally by Serzh Sargsyan in Vanadzor (Lori region), local public transport was free from 11:30 to 23.30 hrs and that offices in the municipal building and in the regional administration were mostly deserted. Observers were informed by employees that they had been told they could leave work to participate in the rally.

Meanwhile, it is anybody’s guess what will happen in next week’s election with opinion split depending on political affiliation. According to RFE/RL’s Press Review, the pro-Ter-Petrossian Zhamanak Yerevan newspaper says that the pre-election campaign period is similar to that in 2003 while the pro-Sargsyan Hayots Ashkhar quotes a leading Republic Party representative as alleging that Ter-Petrossian is “planning to create “an atmosphere of civil discord” […] to stir up trouble.”

“When Levon Ter-Petrosian threatens that ‘wait and see what we will do after February 19,’” Razmik Zohrabian says, “he thereby foretells bigger provocations.” The Armenian Revolutionary Federation — Dashnaktsutyun (ARF-D) has already warned of possible instability which could lead to the “intervention of non-political elements and external forces, which is pregnant with unforeseen consequences.”

Photo: © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2008