Sargsyan Campaigning, Hovannisian Absent, Ter-Petrossian Tight Lipped

For once during the pre-election campaign for the 19 February presidential election in Armenia, it’s been quite a day for real news. This is not least because the opposition Heritage party has endorsed the candidacy of former president Levon Ter-Petrossian and not the leader of the only other opposition party in the Armenian National Assembly, Artur Baghdasarian, and also because while deliberations were continuing in Yerevan, Ter-Petrossian and his former foreign minister and campaign manager were reportedly in Moscow.

But if it could be considered a bad day for the prime minister and governmental favorite to win the presidential election, RFE/RL reports that Serge Sargsyan didn’t appear to show it. Indeed, he continued campaigning and perhaps as a sign of growing political maturity in the country, started to talk about the idea of choosing between the “lesser of two evils,” as another opposition candidate and Ter-Petrossian foe put it.

Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisian downplayed high-profile defections from his camp and criticized those who equate him with Armenia’s former leaders as he campaign in the central Aragatsotn region on Tuesday.

“They say that this election is a choice between the bad and the worst,” he told a campaign rally in the local town of Aparan. “I say that this election is a choice between [different] paths of Armenia’s developments, a choice between experienced and inexperienced people, a choice between people who could have served this country, who could have moved this country forward but led our country to crisis by mismanaging it.”

[…]

Sarkisian insisted that the current Armenian leadership has done a much better job of governing the country and managing its struggling economy than the Ter-Petrosian administration did. In another attack on the ex-president, he slammed unspecified candidates who are trying “turn combat comrades against each other” and “lure them with posts.” “They think that they can achieve something by dividing the society,” said the prime minister.

Meanwhile, after much speculation, Heritage finally made its decision known. Despite not having its criteria met for lending support to a candidate other than Sargsyan, the party founded by U.S. born and former Ter-Petrossian foreign minister, Raffi Hovannisian, finally made its decision known. It would after all support the former president against the prime minister although the decision was not unanimous and Hovannisian himself failed to turn up to the press conference announcing the move.

The decision was announced after a meeting of Zharangutyun’s nine-member governing board which began late Monday and ended after midnight. In a written statement, the party said Ter-Petrosian’s return to power would enable Armenia to undergo “systemic changes” and have a “legitimate president.”

Zharangutyun representatives indicated that the decision was not made unanimously but did not specify whether Hovannisian voted for it. The U.S.-born popular politician, who had served as independent Armenia’s first foreign minister during Ter-Petrosian’s rule, declined to attend a news conference held by them the next morning.

[…]

“During the negotiations [with Ter-Petrosian] we received answers to many questions,” Khachatrian told reporters. “I wouldn’t say that all issues between us have been solved as we have some ideological differences.” He said Hovannisian and the eight other members of the Zharangutyun plan to meet Ter-Petrosian soon to “ascertain” his position on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and other challenges facing Armenia.

[…]

“The negotiation process did not yield desirable results,” said Khachatrian. “This step is aimed at making the [opposition] field more inclusive and combative. The negotiations are not over.”

“We believe that with this step the Zharangutyun party can spur the process of forming an opposition wave capable of effecting changes which we find necessary in Armenia,” he added.

It is unclear how Heritage’s support will affect Ter-Petrossian’s ratings although it is likely that those voters who were undecided or wavering will be more inclined to vote for the former president. Regardless of whether Hovannisian voted in favor of Heritage’s support or not, the party and the leader himself has respect in society for being perceived as being “clean” and “untainted.” Nevertheless, there are also potential dangers as well, as Simon at Blogian explains.

Although Hovhannisian’s support will undoubtedly help the former president in the elections, the same support may harm Hovhannisian’s credibility in the eyes of many Armenians who see LTP accountable for the extreme poverty and violence that swept newly independent Armenia in the 1990s

What also remains to be seen is whether or not Hovannisian joins Ter-Petrossian in person at the next radical opposition rally scheduled for Saturday. Of even more interest, perhaps, is what Ter-Petrossian and his campaign manager, Alexander Arzumanian, reportedly discussed with Russian president-in-waiting, Dmitry Medvedev, on a surprise trip to Moscow yesterday. Although Ter-Petrossian’s supporters accuse Russia of meddling in the country’s internal affairs, it is generally accepted that the outcome of elections here have to meet with the approval of the Kremlin.

The one-day trip came just over one week before Armenia’s presidential election, raising questions about the Kremlin’s continued support for the current authorities in Yerevan.

The Russian newspaper “Argumenty i Fakty” reported that Ter-Petrosian had a brief conversation with Dmitry Medvedev, Russia’s first deputy prime ministry widely expected to succeed Putin in an election scheduled for next month. The paper said Ter-Petrosian “explained his position on key issues” during these and other “political consultations” in the Russian capital.

It quoted a Ter-Petrosian spokesman in Moscow, Smbat Karakhanian, as saying that the Armenian presidential candidate’s talks were “very productive and important.” No further details were reported.

Contacted by RFE/RL, an aide to Medvedev, Vladimir Andrianov, refused to refute or confirm the “Argumenty i Fakty” report. Ter-Petrosian aides in Yerevan also declined a comment.

All of which must create some problems for Ter-Petrossian if Russia is ready to accept his bid to return to power. Moscow has long considered Armenia as its “last outpost” in the South Caucasus and shows no sign of giving it up anytime soon. Moreover, while Ter-Petrossian is considered to be a genuinely pro-Western politician, it was Sargsyan who has made many accommodating gestures to Europe and especially the United States since before last year’s presidential election.

While Armenia has always said it believes in a complimentary foreign policy in order not to alienate itself from either Russia or the West, a lot will also depend on how Moscow views the potential resolution of the Karabakh conflict. Ter-Petrossian, for example, is believed to favor a compromise solution in order to end the frozen conflict and normalize ties with both Azerbaijan and Turkey. It’s perhaps for this reason that EurasiaNet says that some in Ankara and Baku increasingly hope for a Ter-Petrossian victory.

“Ter-Petrosian is an experienced politician who is ready for courageous solutions,” commented Rasim Musabekov, an opposition-friendly political analyst in Baku. “And his speeches show he is readier to stop the hostilities with Azerbaijan. But the issue is whether Ter-Petrosian will be able to control the hawks in the Armenian administration.”

“He said several times that it is necessary for Armenia to have better relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey,” agreed Rauf Mirkadirov, a political columnist for the Russian-language daily Zerkalo (Mirror) who recently returned from a trip to Armenia. “Of course, better relations are not possible without compromises on the Nagorno-Karabakh issue.”

Former presidential foreign policy aide Vafa Guluzade, who took part in the Karabakh peace talks during the 1990s, also sees Ter-Petrosian as capable of “real” compromises – a pullout from the seven occupied Azerbaijani territories surrounding Karabakh, and the start of some form of cooperation with Azerbaijan. Guluzade blames Russia’s supposed dislike of such compromises for the former president’s resignation in 1998.

With the pro-Russian Sarkisian in power, Guluzade forecasts, “the [peace] process will remain stuck. “

[…]

Speeches made by Ter-Petrosian, though, Mirzazade continued, indicate that he grasps “Azerbaijan’s growing strength” – a phrase commonly used to refer to the country’s energy-fueled economic boom and recent military buildup. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

“[R]egardless who wins the elections, the new president will have to consider the new realities of our region and Azerbaijan’s growing military and economic potential,” Mirzazade said.

Analyst Musabekov sees Sarkisian as out of sync with those “new realities.”

“This group does not really understand the situation in the region … and does not see the risks that Azerbaijan is getting stronger. Sarkisian is more confrontational,” he said.

The Foreign Ministry’s Ibrahim noted only that the government hopes Armenia’s next president will take a “more constructive position on the issue of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.”

Nevertheless, there are also those in Azerbaijan who consider what is arguably a more genuine attempt to hold democratic elections in Armenia might also make Sargsyan vulnerable to growing demands to compromise. Later, when Azerbaijan enters its own pre-election campaign period at the end of the year, pressure might also be applied in stronger terms on Baku.

Another independent political expert, Ilgar Mammadov, believes that the February 19 election means Yerevan is currently under greater outside pressure than Baku to compromise on Karabakh.

[…]

Eventually, though, international pressure will focus on Azerbaijan, he said. “Apparently, Yerevan is pressed harder now, but the pressure will shift to Baku after April, heading towards the October 2008 presidential elections in Azerbaijan,” he noted.

If Ter-Petrosian somehow wins the vote, Mammadov believes, Western pressure on Azerbaijan will stay strong, even after its upcoming presidential poll. “He already says he is ready for compromises. Therefore, if he wins, the West will demand more compromises from Baku as well,” the expert said.

In reality, however, it is anybody’s guess what the latest developments mean for next week’s presidential election although it does make the battle to follow the incumbent and outgoing president, Robert Kocharian, all the more interesting and potentially tighter. However, it also makes the situation in Armenia one particularly conducive to clashes between government and opposition supporters as tensions rise ahead of the vote.

Photo: Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2008