I explained to her that I’ve spent years photographing markets and traders so she was wrong to criticize me, but anyway asked her and two others who they would vote for.

Interestingly, one said Serge while another remained quiet. Then she responded by saying that all the candidates were worthless and she’d vote for whoever paid her the most. That was the only good thing about elections she said.

Sad but true.

Besides, I’m sure there are vote bribes going around on behalf of Serge and so the matter is not who wins at present, but whether it goes to a second round and if so, who will go through to a second round. On that basis, I think that all of the three main candidates have a chance and it remains to be seen which one will if that is the case.

Nevertheless, I think that Baghdasarian and Ter-Petrossian have more support than Hovannisian. A pity given their style of campaigning and the fact that all they seem to have to offer is accusations, gossip and hate, but anyway, that’s the situation.

Nobody is even considering that as a possibility.

“In my eyes, the only sustainable settlement for Armenia is unification with Karabakh, with the concession to Azerbaijan of some occupied territories (excluding Lachin).”

I don’t know if some of the occupied territories is really considered a concession. Those were intended as insurance anyway and only giving up some of them doesn’t seem to be an option. I have spoken with one person who is quite connect (though not a part of) the government who said a settlement will consist of just that. I really don’t share his optimism but he’s far more connected than me and really intelligent, so it’s not an opinion to take lightly. I just don’t know. It’s going to be very difficult in getting Karabakh independent/united with Armenia though in the eyes of the international community. Not much hope for a Kosovo precedent here, Baku’s got oil.

What do you think are the chances of an ARF victory in this election?

The Diaspora is more than able to make demands on Turkey. It has done, and will continue to do so. Moreover, Turkey is under pressure from the EU to recognize the Genocide and I think that this means more than Armenia’s position. That said, Armenians shouldn’t forget and recognition at least can be considered necessary for future national security.

It’s funny in a way. If Ter-Petrossian does come to power through street protests other than through the ballot box, I won’t consider it a good day for democracy in Armenia, especially as he is reliant on all the unsavory characters in authority to switch to his side to be unsavory for him too.

On the other hand, I agree with Paul and think that it’s really about time that Karabakh was resolved and relations with Turkey sorted out. Otherwise, I can’t see that this is going to be possible later when the language of hate and nationalism is always used for internal political purposes in Armenia, Azerbaijan and Turkey.

That said, I don’t like the hatred that is being stirred up by reference to the “Karabakh Clan.” Regardless, I don’t consider this election to be democratic in the format that it’s in at present. Instead, I agree with Hrant Markarian when he said “One of them tries to win [voters] over by hatred and regime change. The other one tries to keep the status quo by using the state’s leverage and pressure.”

Still, that’s how it is I can only hope that there will be no violence, but I fear the worst and expect clashes. We’ll know more this weekend, I suppose, judging by Saturday and Sunday’s meetings by Ter-Petrossian and Sargsyan. On the one hand, Ter-Petrossian definitely has large enough mass to take to the streets and storm buildings.

What remains to be seen is whether or not genuine support against the idea of what I can only consider will be an attempt at revolution will materialize at Sargsyan’s Republic Square rally. Election day will also be interesting, of course. Will there be violence? Will there be falsification by both Ter-Petrossian and Sargsyan’s supporters or will it be democratic?

I suppose all of this can at least be considered a test for Armenia. What matters more is that whoever is the next president of Armenia takes that position as a reflection of the democratic will of the people and without violence. Like I said, I am not so sure that will be the case, but let’s see.

THere is no future for an Armenian state without Karabakh and vise versa. Without Karabakh, Zangezour is very vulnerable to Turkish/Azeri pan-Turkism–which is very much a constant reality.

Ataturk’s main objective was to take zangezour, Nakhijevan and karabakh…and they tried…both military and diplomatically through negotiations with the soviet union. Call me a nationalist if you will, but I have studied the Soviet-TUrkish entente and Ataturks drive into the Caucasus in great length and if Karabakh goes, Armenia loses Zangezur. If armenia loses zangezour Armenia is COMPLETELY landlocked and within a few decades it will be depleted of its population and finally engulfed by its two neighboring states. If that happens, rest assured the Armenian Nation will assimilate at a much quicker pace than thought possible–and Armenia and the children of Noa will disappear from the world forever. I’m not a fascist, racist, or a ultra-nationalist, I just don’t want to see my people disappear.

As for Serge, it doesn’t matter, or Levon, or Vahan, or anyone else for that matter. Let them be in power for 5 years or 10. Just that it is the majority of people who should decide that. Besides, believe it or not, elections are improving. Last year’s parliamentary election can’t be compared to 1995, 1999, or 2003.

Likewise, this election is also held in a better environment overall than in 2003. My main concerns is the hate being spewed mainly from Ter-Petrossian’s side, although Geghamian is just as bad and the prime minister is no saint, I suppose, and the fact that there’s no real alternative on offer. Indeed, this last point is perhaps the main issue that now needs to be addressed.

On the other hand, I have to be honest, normalizing ties with Azerbaijan and Turkey does look almost guaranteed under Ter-Petrossian and I do actually consider that a desperate need too. Dunno, I wouldn’t vote for any of them, I have to be honest. Ultimately, I just hope that there are no doubts that whoever is the next president gets elected without either falsification or external involvement.