Comments on Ter-Petrossian

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1. Paul 02.13.08 / 7pm

   I know there are a lot of problems with LTP, but I’m not so sure a regime change in Armenia is a bad thing. It is never good to have the same people in power for too long a time, it gets them used to the power, set in their ways, and more prone to take advantage of an already easy place to take advantage of. We’ve had Kocharian for 10 years, do we need Serge for 10 now too?! I really like LTP’s promise that he’d be in office only 3 years and then step aside for someone else- I have no reason to believe he’d do otherwise but of course you never know. A LTP returned to power after resignation and 10 years out of the spotlight will be a more humbled LTP. He made a lot of enemies in his time and will need to work with all sorts of people to reconstruct a support base and rule the country properly. I was too young to really know what abuses went on during LTP’s time and I know there were many- and I especially know Dashnaks like Christian are justified in feeling unforgiving towards him- but I’m not so sure LTP will have the same leverage for abuse as he did before. I don’t see Serge being tied down by similar liabilities to achieving more absolute power.
   I’m not extremely familliar with Armenian politics so take what I say with a grain of salt, but an at least 20-year incumbancy in the making by two men who aren’t even natives of Armenia proper is not the kind of precedent I want set running Armenia.
2. Onnik 02.13.08 / 8pm

   Well, he seems no sign of being humble and as for promises that he’d be in power for only three years, come on, he’s a politician. I mean, he didn’t go in 1996 and who says “elect me and I’ll be gone after 3 years?” There will be “extensions,” unforeseen problems and drawbacks, and before you know it…

   As for Serge, it doesn’t matter, or Levon, or Vahan, or anyone else for that matter. Let them be in power for 5 years or 10. Just that it is the majority of people who should decide that. Besides, believe it or not, elections are improving. Last year’s parliamentary election can’t be compared to 1995, 1999, or 2003.

   Likewise, this election is also held in a better environment overall than in 2003. My main concerns is the hate being spewed mainly from Ter-Petrossian’s side, although Geghamian is just as bad and the prime minister is no saint, I suppose, and the fact that there’s no real alternative on offer. Indeed, this last point is perhaps the main issue that now needs to be addressed.

   On the other hand, I have to be honest, normalizing ties with Azerbaijan and Turkey does look almost guaranteed under Ter-Petrossian and I do actually consider that a desperate need too. Dunno, I wouldn’t vote for any of them, I have to be honest. Ultimately, I just hope that there are no doubts that whoever is the next president gets elected without either falsification or external involvement.
3. Paul 02.14.08 / 12am

   I’m just worried with Serge the Karabakh tail is wagging Armenia. We all feel strongly about a fair resolution to Karabakh but Serge might be too stalwart to really care what happens to Armenia as long as the Karabakh status quo is maintained. Since this problem effects all Armenians in both Armenia and Karabakh I’d like an Armenian president respresenting Armenia’s interests in the peace settlement and a Karabakh leader representing Karabakh’s, not the current system which seems to be Kocharian and Serge are from Karabakh and so as Armenia’s leaders they are able to represent both adequately. It’s kind of funny how LTP brought Kocharian to Armenia to learn about Armenia and see why compromise is the answer only to have him become the leader of all Armenia in less than a year. A proper settlement and regional integration needs to be foremost on the agenda because the longer this simmers the worse it gets. It’d also take away Turkey’s main excuse to continue to ignore Armenia- though their new precondition of “get the diaspora to shut up and never speak about the genocide again” still might be used if they really want to be idiots about it.
4. allen 02.14.08 / 2am

   I do not understand this distinction people make between Armenian interests and karabakh interests, between the Armenian people and the Karabakh people,as if they were two distinct nations.

   THere is no future for an Armenian state without Karabakh and vise versa. Without Karabakh, Zangezour is very vulnerable to Turkish/Azeri pan-Turkism–which is very much a constant reality.

   Ataturk’s main objective was to take zangezour, Nakhijevan and karabakh…and they tried…both military and diplomatically through negotiations with the soviet union. Call me a nationalist if you will, but I have studied the Soviet-TUrkish entente and Ataturks drive into the Caucasus in great length and if Karabakh goes, Armenia loses Zangezur. If armenia loses zangezour Armenia is COMPLETELY landlocked and within a few decades it will be depleted of its population and finally engulfed by its two neighboring states. If that happens, rest assured the Armenian Nation will assimilate at a much quicker pace than thought possible–and Armenia and the children of Noa will disappear from the world forever. I’m not a fascist, racist, or a ultra-nationalist, I just don’t want to see my people disappear.
5. Paul 02.14.08 / 4am

   I am not saying the interests of Armenia and Karabakh aren’t interwoven, but obviously an overly hard concentration on one or the other will hurt the other. What I mean by this is if we have the Karabakh tail wag Armenia, the leaders will be more likely to take a hard line which benefits Karabakh but hurts Armenia. I am in no way saying Armenia should just throw Karabakh back to Azerbaijan, but some sort of settlement needs to be worked out for Armenia’s sake, not this persistent status quo which the Karabakh clan seems content with.
   Armenia and Karabakh do have interests which are closely aligned, but that doesn’t mean Karabakhtsis don’t have the ability to take advantage of Armenia by pushing for an impossible settlement. I also have heard about a lot of resentment in Armenia because apparently Kocharian ships all the nicest stuff off to Stepanakert instead of helping Armenia proper.
   We have to be rational here. Is there any sort of peace settlement which will result in Azerbaijan regaining control over Karabakh? Obviously not, even Aliyev has offered “the highest autonomy in the world”- whatever that means. It seems to me that under that Karabakh would essentially be left to run its own affairs but on the world map would still be within Azerbaijan’s borders- though I don’t know what their actual designs are on what this autonomy would be. Karabakh is vitally important to Armenia, but that doesn’t mean that Karabakh’s interests have to trump all else. As you say, Karabakh is important to Armenia’s survival, so be it. Armenia should act accordingly in the Karabakh settlement. So why are you so afraid of letting someone from Armenia settle? Why do you think LTP- or any self-respecting Armenian- would settle the conflict in a way which would destroy Armenia? Essentially what your saying is Armenia must always have a Karabakhtsi president to make sure the Karabakh conflict is preserved so that Armenia is preserved? I don’t know why my call to settle the Karabakh conflict = giving away Karabakh. It’s something that needs to be done eventually and interestingly something that was supposed to happen a few months after the ceasefire. For reasons which confound a lot of outside observes it didn’t for whatever reason and still lingers today. It’s more than time to end this properly.
6. Onnik 02.14.08 / 10am

   Well, I agree that normalizing relations and opening borders with Azerbaijan and Turkey is vital. Moreover, I hope it happens sooner rather than later. On the other hand, I don’t think it should be at any cost although I also personally don’t think that returning territory around Karabakh is “betrayal” or that dropping demands for Genocide recognition or reparations is either.

   The Diaspora is more than able to make demands on Turkey. It has done, and will continue to do so. Moreover, Turkey is under pressure from the EU to recognize the Genocide and I think that this means more than Armenia’s position. That said, Armenians shouldn’t forget and recognition at least can be considered necessary for future national security.

   It’s funny in a way. If Ter-Petrossian does come to power through street protests other than through the ballot box, I won’t consider it a good day for democracy in Armenia, especially as he is reliant on all the unsavory characters in authority to switch to his side to be unsavory for him too.

   On the other hand, I agree with Paul and think that it’s really about time that Karabakh was resolved and relations with Turkey sorted out. Otherwise, I can’t see that this is going to be possible later when the language of hate and nationalism is always used for internal political purposes in Armenia, Azerbaijan and Turkey.

   That said, I don’t like the hatred that is being stirred up by reference to the “Karabakh Clan.” Regardless, I don’t consider this election to be democratic in the format that it’s in at present. Instead, I agree with Hrant Markarian when he said “One of them tries to win [voters] over by hatred and regime change. The other one tries to keep the status quo by using the state’s leverage and pressure.”

   Still, that’s how it is I can only hope that there will be no violence, but I fear the worst and expect clashes. We’ll know more this weekend, I suppose, judging by Saturday and Sunday’s meetings by Ter-Petrossian and Sargsyan. On the one hand, Ter-Petrossian definitely has large enough mass to take to the streets and storm buildings.

   What remains to be seen is whether or not genuine support against the idea of what I can only consider will be an attempt at revolution will materialize at Sargsyan’s Republic Square rally. Election day will also be interesting, of course. Will there be violence? Will there be falsification by both Ter-Petrossian and Sargsyan’s supporters or will it be democratic?

   I suppose all of this can at least be considered a test for Armenia. What matters more is that whoever is the next president of Armenia takes that position as a reflection of the democratic will of the people and without violence. Like I said, I am not so sure that will be the case, but let’s see.
7. allen 02.15.08 / 1am

   I agree with you Onik, there needs to be a settlement and fast. In my eyes, the only sustainable settlement for Armenia is unification with Karabakh, with the concession to Azerbaijan of some occupied territories (excluding Lachin). Anything short of unification will spell doom for Armenia b/c it will mean the continuation of the status quo, propogating animosity and anger toward “kharabakhtsi’s” for being the cause of Armenia’s problems, and vice versa, namely feeling of betrayel by kharabakhtsi’s that see no real progress, investment, or development in karabakh.

   What do you think are the chances of an ARF victory in this election?
8. Paul 02.15.08 / 2am

   “What do you think are the chances of an ARF victory in this election?”

   Nobody is even considering that as a possibility.

   “In my eyes, the only sustainable settlement for Armenia is unification with Karabakh, with the concession to Azerbaijan of some occupied territories (excluding Lachin).”

   I don’t know if some of the occupied territories is really considered a concession. Those were intended as insurance anyway and only giving up some of them doesn’t seem to be an option. I have spoken with one person who is quite connect (though not a part of) the government who said a settlement will consist of just that. I really don’t share his optimism but he’s far more connected than me and really intelligent, so it’s not an opinion to take lightly. I just don’t know. It’s going to be very difficult in getting Karabakh independent/united with Armenia though in the eyes of the international community. Not much hope for a Kosovo precedent here, Baku’s got oil.
9. Onnik 02.15.08 / 2am

   Alan, I don’t think an ARF-D victory is remotely on the cards although they have been impressive in their attempt at campaigning unlike most of the others. However, I saw some of their guys out today and most passer-bys seemed genuinely interested in Hovannisian. That said, if there’s a chance, it’s very remote.

   Besides, I’m sure there are vote bribes going around on behalf of Serge and so the matter is not who wins at present, but whether it goes to a second round and if so, who will go through to a second round. On that basis, I think that all of the three main candidates have a chance and it remains to be seen which one will if that is the case.

   Nevertheless, I think that Baghdasarian and Ter-Petrossian have more support than Hovannisian. A pity given their style of campaigning and the fact that all they seem to have to offer is accusations, gossip and hate, but anyway, that’s the situation.
10. Onnik 02.15.08 / 2am

    BTW: On the issue of vote bribes while I was photographing two students handing out campaign literature for Hovannisian a nearby market trader started cursing me for photographing the ARF-D guys and not them.

    I explained to her that I’ve spent years photographing markets and traders so she was wrong to criticize me, but anyway asked her and two others who they would vote for.

    Interestingly, one said Serge while another remained quiet. Then she responded by saying that all the candidates were worthless and she’d vote for whoever paid her the most. That was the only good thing about elections she said.

    Sad but true.
11. A~B 02.19.08 / 4am

    Today there is no one in Armenia, who is hated more than serge… Just people are scared to talk. I consider it to be one of the worst consequences of qocharyan-sargsyan’s regime - that atmosphere of fear, which dominates the country. And just alone for that one can thank Levon Ter-Petrosyan, that he managed at least partly to break this.

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