When the government is an end in itself and there are no ideological and political basis for it, and there are no supporters, the government leans on the state apparatus and “prominent” people. On those, who can guarantee their reproduction. When this is the reality, oligarchs become a machine for giving away election bribes, a government bureaucrat becomes a means for ensuring an army of voters, and then oligarchs are granted privileges, the free competition is eliminated, bureaucrat’s illegalities are ignored, the corruption flourishes, and criminals set up a criminal government.

This exactly why the former and the current regimes are trying to get to power with former and current oligarchs, criminals, bribe-takers.

Drongo | drongo87@altavista.com | IP: 217.113.25.82

The British opinion poll you keep citing was fundamentally misrepresented and distorted by the Armenian regime’s propaganda machine. See the story below. Note the question which respondents were asked in reality. It was NOT about who they will vote for….[…]

The IP address 217.113.25.82 belongs to RFE/RL’s Yerevan Bureau.

IP Address : 217.113.25.82 [ 217.113.25.82 ]
ISP: WEB Ltd
Organization: Liberty
Location: AM AM, Armenia
City: Yerevan, 11 -
Latitude: 40°18′11″ North
Longitude: 44°51′36″ East

Meanwhile, I’m still waiting for “Armen Ashughyan” to identify himself to me publicly or privately. I’d also like to point out that when in the past I’ve been critical of PanArmenian.Net or the government, it responds openly and publicly and doesn’t hide behind a pseudonym.

And it definitely doesn’t try to manipulate or distort what I’ve actually said.

However, there are those that believe Ter-Petrossian is interested in getting external support and allege that he suggested the idea of a colored revolution to Western Ambassadors at a meeting at the French Embassy.

He offered them normalized ties with Azerbaijan and Turkey in return, including preventing schools from teaching children about the Genocide. This sounds somewhat credible as it was what he tried to do when in power.

As for achievements, he was not the only one who did that and the successes can also be accredited to some of those he despises today, namely Robert Kocharian, Samuel Babayan, Vazgen Manukian and Serge Sargsyan.
Others state that his failings should have relegated him to history.

However, your reference to all of that was off-topic and nothing to do with colored revolutions. In fact, it seems like a rather sly way of pushing for Ter-Petrossian on a post about the Dashnaks who he actually banned when he started Armenia along the path of decline in terms of democracy.

Please keep on topic in future because it just disrupts the flow of any other comments and is designed to serve propaganda purposes, in my opinion. Back to colored revolutions, however, it seems unlikely that Ter-Petrossian has any external backing, but let’s see.

However, my gut reaction is that his Liberty Square meetings are designed to prepare the “ground troops.” However, he needs a critical mass, but to date he hasn’t. He has about half of what he needs to overthrow the government which appears to be his only intention.

Interestingly, only pro-radical opposition journalists and media outlets appear convinced that he can successfully stage a colored revolution, but that’s because they support the idea and he is their last hope. Some are close to the radical opposition whereas foreign journalists to date don’t expect anything other than Sargsyan becoming president.

Time will tell, but to conclude this off-topic thread, the only justification for a colored revolution is if one candidate wins and another tampers with the vote to steal that victory. For now, however, it looks as though Ter-Petrossian can’t poll more than 26 percent of the vote even with Baghdasarian’s support.

It even remains uncertain as to whether Ter-Petrossian would make it into a possible second round of voting. Still, I’m not sure any of that factors into his decision-making process. He is preparing for street protests and that’s it, really. Whether he has any right to protest remains to be seen.

Unfortunately, as we now don’t have any exit polls he can and will allege everything he wants to after 19 February and yes, it will probably end up with clashes on the streets, the likes of which we haven’t seen for a long time. Interestingly, some rumors suggest the army has already been brought into Yerevan although this is from one Ter-Petrossian supporter I know.

However, there is no mention of this in any media outlet so far as I am aware and although it would be kind of ironic given that Ter-Petrossian also did the same in 1996, constitutionally it is not allowed unless a state of emergency is declared. Anyway, most of those local journalists I know are expecting clashes after the election and expect it to be very nasty indeed.

One can only hope that nothing will happen because a “colored revolution” in the context of Armenia is not likely to be pretty, especially as Ter-Petrossian does not have wide support in society. Indeed, his attempts to postpone the election by 2 weeks as well as his courtship of Tsarukian seems to suggest that he is well aware of this as well.

Now, comments about the ARF-D and Vahan Hovannisian would be welcomed and in keeping with the topic of this post.

Onnik, do you still consider color revolution an opportunity?

To be honest, I think that possibility has passed and perhaps it even wasn’t there precisely for the reasons you state. I know this might be somewhat controversial to say, but I consider that democracy has advanced in Armenia since the 2007 parliamentary election.

It wasn’t the same as the 2003 election and Armenia is albeit reluctantly committed to keep the CE happy in terms of development in this area. In a sense, this has been because of colored revolutions in Georgia and Ukraine. Interestingly, the traffic police have greatly improved since Georgia set the precedent, for example.

Or rather that answer is that the West probably doesn’t favor colored revolutions as a means of a matter of democratic changes as long as some progress is registered in terms of managed democracy especially in the context of European integration. There has been progress registered in the 2007 and this year’s election.

On the other hand, my personal opinion is that colored revolutions should be avoided, especially with outside support, unless let’s say an opposition candidate actually has more votes than the government one physically and legally deposited in a ballot box, but there votes are “lost” or “miscounted” to the extent that they lose an election to a government candidate.

That is, people — citizens — have the right to protest the outcome of the vote and in my opinion, take matters into their own hands after exhausting other methods for seeking redress according to the law. However, it is vital that the opposition in this case really have a case. That wasn’t the situation in Georgia, for example.

However, in case your question was loaded let me just say that if say, Ter-Petrossian looks as though he did win or say, Sargsyan inflated his vote to such an extent that the rightful outcome of the vote was affected I will be there documenting things and considering events to be a natural and positive reflection of the will of the people.

I’ll be honest here, I really don’t consider Ter-Petrossian to be the democratic figure he would like portrayed, although support from a figure I do respect such as Raffi Hovannisian would give him the benefit of the doubt, but if I really considered that Ter-Petrossian is the rightful heir to the throne even, I would consider his coming to power the right course.

Of course, that’s subjective, but basically, when I pick up discontent with the majority of Armenians I would side with them even if with reservations. On the other hand, I’m afraid the same would be true for Sargsyan so basically it means I don’t consider “colored revolutions” a means to an end.”

Simply, if they happen and they should not be a substitute for proper elections even in an Armenian context, they should only be seen as valid if a true reflection on the public will and a last resort to challenge a grave injustice.

Does that answer your question?

ARMENIA: TER-PETROSIAN FILES SUIT THAT COULD POSTPONE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Marianna Grigoryan: 2/08/08

Amid assurances from President Robert Kocharian that Armenia’s upcoming presidential poll will meet international standards, leading opposition candidate Levon Ter-Petrosian, alleging unfair campaign conditions, has filed a complaint that could lead to a postponement of the February 19 election. On February 7, Ter-Petrosian lodged the petition with the Constitutional Court, Armenia’s highest court. In it, he asks the high court to recognize that his election campaign faces “insurmountable obstacles.” Under Article 90 of Armenia’s Election Code, such “obstacles,” if recognized by the Court, can trigger a two-week postponement of the presidential election. At the end of that period, if the hindrances have been addressed, the election would take place immediately. If it is decided that they have not been addressed, the election would be held 40 days after the end of the two-week postponement period. The Constitutional Court will consider Ter-Petrosian’s application on February 11, a source within the Court told EurasiaNet. […].

http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/insight/articles/eav020808.shtml

Dear Onnik, I can not agree with you on this. LTP did not introduce corrupt system. The Soviet legacy is a huge factor and do not dismiss it.

Yeah, this argument is still used today and always to rationalize corruption.

As a matter of fact, the Kharabakh Committee and the inner circle of people who came to power in 1991 were comprised of the least corrupt persons in republic. Most of them had dedicated themselves to academy and other harmless professions within Soviet system.

Well, sure, there were people like Vazgen Manukian who appears to hate Levon Ter-Petrossian far more than any other candidate today.

As for harmless and less corrupt individuals who were part of his government or on top of the economic clan system, I can only think of Vano and his brother-in-law Grzo (Khachatur Sukiasian) who must be down to his last millions if his support for Ter-Petrossian is anything to go by.

Anyway, I don’t dispute the fact that this country is in its infancy, but one thing is clear.

Ter-Petrossian shows no sign of being able to address the failings of the present. Indeed, he seems more interested in spewing hateful discourse, turning the population against Sargsyan and Kocharian mainly with the argument that they are “outsiders.”

Meanwhile, the very same rotten apples that were once named in holding back Armenia as recently as last year are the people that Ter-Petrossian is now courting because he needs their support in exchange for allowing them to keep their positions.

This is the most unfortunate aspect of Ter-Petrossian’s campaign, I think. Rather than offer and explain an alternative for a brighter future, he is using what I consider to be undemocratic methods and tactics.

Basically, he hopes not to come to power through the ballot box but by officials and oligarchs swithching sides and utilizing the 20-25,000 people in Liberty Square as “ground troops” to do any of the necessary dirty work and to hold up to the international media as a sign of public support when in reality, he doesn’t have anywhere near as much as he would like you to believe.

Yes, I know, the present authorities have been terrible, but there has been some slight progress and I’m sure there is in this pre-election period as well. Indeed, I don’t consider that Ter-Petrossian’s re-appearance broke any “atmosphere of fear,” but rather that increased demands from the international community created the situation he could emerge into.

Of course, the fact that there is now the issue of the incumbent having no choice but to step down is as important here as well. As Sargsyan is not apparently as strong and commanding as Kocharian is this makes the situation more liberal and freer as a result.

Compared to the 2003 presidential election, the pre-election campaign period is better than its ever been in terms of a stable environment for an election. Not that it’s perfect, of course. Indeed, there are still plenty of areas where problems exist, but it strikes me that Ter-Petrossian needs to now provoke clashes in order to get where he wants.

Basically, this is not an attempt to contest an election, it is an attempt to start a revolution. However, as he doesn’t have enough support in society he instead needs international backing as well as the support of the same oligarchs and corrupt officials his supporters once hated more than Sargsyan.

Anyway, going a little off-topic, but anyway. Still, while we’re at it, back to RFE/RL. A local journalist and analyst told me that a reporter had been fired from the station because she refused to report in the anti-government style they wanted. I need to find out more about this, I think.

Dear Onnik, I can not agree with you on this. LTP did not introduce corrupt system. The Soviet legacy is a huge factor and do not dismiss it. As a matter of fact, the Kharabakh Committee and the inner circle of people who came to power in 1991 were comprised of the least corrupt persons in republic. Most of them had dedicated themselves to academy and other harmless professions within Soviet system. They lacked experience and professionalism, it is true. Most of them never been to any western (or foreign country for that matter) before and could not imagine why a frenchmen for example may protest banning a muslim scarfs in the schools. I mean the basics of democracy were completely lost for most of the Soviet citizens. Not all of them, who came to power remained principled or honest, yes, the power corrupts people. I can agree that LTP did not do enough to stop corruption in his government, but please also note that the republic at the beginning was completely broke and hardly could sustain itself. So, now the question is comparison between personal qualities of LTP and RK or SS, not the system. I am not idealist, and I see people who surrounds LTP. There is no chance that with LTP country becomes significantly better than it is now. But there are some hopes and prospects, while SS will just drag country further in the same, wrong direction.

And my last phrase was a joke of course, I agree with Churchill, that democracy is a terrible governing system, but there is nothing better yet to replace it.

193.232.228.61 does not like recipient.
Remote host said: 550 5.1.1 ashugyan@freenet.am… User unknown
Giving up on 193.232.228.61.

Judging from the clever way of seeming to be anti-RFE/RL but turning the argument around, which is pretty much like their articles, as well as the quality of English I can guess who actually wrote the comments.

Yes, it’s someone at RFE/RL who used to anonymously post comments in support of Ter-Petrossian and in order to attack opinion polls showing him to be trailing other candidates until I pointed out that I recognized the IP address.

Armen, if I’m wrong, send me an email so I know.

That is, responses are usually sought from every side. I can also point out where and when I don’t consider the article to be non-partisan and accurate etc. Moreover, the quality of English is higher and the articles generally more comprehensive.

Besides, while I will and do quote from other sources, Yerkir can be considered affiliated to the ARF-D so it can’t be pushed entirely, and I do check up on Panorama.am but their items are usually very short. Anyway, I have quoted and linked to them and will do so when appropiate. The same is true for Public Radio’s web site.

As for PanArmenian.net, by their own admission they do not usually deal with elections in Armenia and are more interested in international news as it pertains to Armenia. This usually means only OSCE or CE statements, for example.

However, I do admit that I am gradually including RFE/RL less and less because it’s credibility as a non-partisan and objective source has declined tremendously since Ter-Petrossian returned to the political scene. Kind of ironic when I’m told he actually shut them down during his tenure as president.

I also admit that I think more and more about what The Independent’s Robert Fisk wrote about RFE/RL and the coming election on his visit to Armenia last year:

Sargsyan even tried to throw the American Radio Liberty/Free Europe station out of Armenia - though I suppose that’s not necessarily an undemocratic gesture.

But I notice that RFE/RL articles still constitute 80-90% of information available on your website. Why do you keep promoting RFE? There are so many other more objective news sources like Yerkir.am, panarmenian.net, panorama.am etc. WHy don’t you use their stuff? Those CIA spies will now say that if they were not truthful you would not use their information.

I’m very disappointed….

only in Armenia a party can be part of the government and opposition at the same time.

And only in Armenia can the president who introduced the same corrupt system he now attacks, while also seeking to do deals with the same people his campaign team despised last year by appealing to oligarchs to join him, seek to come to power again alongside the brother of the man who was instrumental in his resignation wile also negotiating with a former member of the government who his supporters accused of being “false opposition” as recently as a year ago.

(as long as SS or dashnaks do not win of course :-))

Hope that’s a joke. For a country such as Armenia which doesn’t have a lot of control over it’s own domestic and foreign policy it shouldn’t matter who wins as long as the vote is democratic, and that applies equally to Vahan Hovannisian, Serge Sargsyan, Artur Baghdasarian and Levon Ter-Petrossian as well.

For a country that sorely needs to take further strides along a path of democratization, that’s all that matters, in my opinion. Besides, the window of opportunity for “colored revolutions” has now passed and Armenia missed the boat. Now we’re talking only about managed democracy as part of European integration which should theoretically be sustainable and long-term.