Related posts:

• Levon Ter-Petrossian Claims Baghdasarian, Hovannisian Support
• Vahan Hovannisian Pre-Election Campaign Launch
• Heritage: Provincial Campaigning
• Lesser of Two Evils (Reprise)
• Armenia Presidential Election Desktop Pics
• Baghdasarian Confirms Negotiations
• Levon Ter-Petrossian’s Final Pre-Election Campaign Meeting in Yerevan
• The Numbers Game

1. Armen Ashughyan 02.09.08 / 8pm

   Onnik, so you also are saying that LTP might be Serzh’s main rival….What makes you now different from the likes of RFE/RL and other “independent” media? And why did you say that LTP’s rally was bigger than ARF’s? The enemies of the nation will surely use that. This is shameful!
2. Onnik 02.09.08 / 8pm

   I’m saying that today’s rally by Ter-Petrossian appeared slightly larger than that by Vahan Hovannisian yesterday because it did. However, you should also note that I don’t consider that orchestrated attempts to gather people in Liberty Square to mean more than that.

   Certainly, it does not represent how people in general are going to vote. We saw that last year during the parliamentary election when Raffi Hovannisian gathered at most 100 people and instead spent time actually campaigning. He got into parliament while Impeachment/Republic/People’s Party didn’t despite staging a few 5 or 10,000 people rallies.

   As for Ter-Petrossian I have always maintained that only closer to election day will we know who Sargsyan’s main rival will be. However, I think it’s fairly logical to conclude that if Ter-Petrossian has 12.6 percent support according to the Populus poll and Baghdasarian with 13.4 percent decides to pull out and join him, then Ter-Petrossian does stand a chance to be the main rival as Vahan Hovannisian has only 7.6 percent.

   On the other hand, I stil say “chance” because it’s also possible that many Orinats Yerkir and Heritage party supporters would not vote for Ter-Petrossian even if their respective leaders backed him. I know of one Heritage supporter who says he will be totally disillusioned and disappointed with Raffi if Heritage supports LTP. So, it’s also possible that some of their votes could go to Vahan Hovannisian or Vazgen Manukian or not get used at all.

   By the same token, if Levon Ter-Petrossian were to pull out and support Baghdasarian it would be him who stands that chance. Without uniting, however, it is pretty obvious that who the main challenger to Sargsyan is will be decided by the last week and the remainder of the campaign period. That’s also why the media must cover other candidates rather than just Sargsyan and Ter-Petrossian.

   Personally speaking, I don’t know what will be although I’m starting to consider that unless the opposition unites Sargsyan will likely win in a first round. On the other hand, I think a first round victory is going to be tight so he might not squeeze past the 50+1 threshold and then, I’m not sure who would get through with him.

   Ter-Petrossian and Artur Baghdasarian are neck and neck so it’s anybody’s guess unless one of them pulls out. As for Vahan Hovannisian, I think he needs Vazgen Manukian to do the same or Raffi Hovannisian to come on board. Actually, I still think that Heritage’s support will pretty much determine a lot for the which opposition challenger has the most credibility among the population.

   Apart from the typical radical opposition crowd and your usual pro-radical opposition dudes in civil society, I don’t pick up a lot of support for Ter-Petrossian. Actually, I think that a lot is going to be determined by this coming week.
3. nazarian 02.09.08 / 8pm

   How would enemies of the nation use a larger rally by LTP than VH?
4. Onnik 02.09.08 / 8pm

   Ok, so it’s as I suspected. The email given for Armen’s comment bounced and it kind of makes me think that the name is made up.

   193.232.228.61 does not like recipient.
   Remote host said: 550 5.1.1 ashugyan@freenet.am… User unknown
   Giving up on 193.232.228.61.

   Judging from the clever way of seeming to be anti-RFE/RL but turning the argument around, which is pretty much like their articles, as well as the quality of English I can guess who actually wrote the comments.

   Yes, it’s someone at RFE/RL who used to anonymously post comments in support of Ter-Petrossian and in order to attack opinion polls showing him to be trailing other candidates until I pointed out that I recognized the IP address.

   Armen, if I’m wrong, send me an email so I know.
5. Onnik 02.09.08 / 8pm

   Nazarian, don’t even bother to think about the logic because I’m pretty sure the comment is a bogus one from someone at RFE/RL trying to seem anti-Ter-Petrossian when they’re actually trying to do something else.
6. Onnik 02.09.08 / 8pm

   Like I said, it’s pretty similar to the style of propaganda during elections on RFE/RL.

   Onnik, so you also are saying that LTP might be Serzh’s main rival

   Actually, that’s simply an attempt to put words in my mouth and convince other readers that’s what I said. Instead, I said this:

   Word of that possible turn of events is expected today or by early next week. Indeed, whether the election goes to a second round and WHETHER the main opposition challenger to Sargsyan will be Ter-Petrossian might well DEPEND ON IT.

   Which in plain non-propaganda English terms means what it says. Until we see whether two other opposition leaders unite behind Ter-Petrossian it’s not certain that he will be the main challenger.

   How can it be certain? Like I said, gathering people in Liberty Square is easy. Usually an idea on who will be a main challenger is indicated by opinion polls, and on that basis, Artur Baghdasarian and Levon Ter-Petrossian are currently neck and neck.

   Incidentally, here’s part of an interesting analysis by CMI’s Alexander Ishkandaryan via ArmInfo.

   Generally, Iskandaryan divides voters into three groups. Thus, the first group votes for stability and legal succession (officials, businessmen), and it is S. Sargsyan’s constituency. It is not so significant part of the public. The second group is the bright-protesting constituency ready to vote against elite. This group will not sell their votes. This group is not significant part of the public either. The third and the most significant constituency is the so-called apathetic electorate ready to sell their votes and listen to blandishment. It is the very constituency that S. Sargsyan and L. Ter-Petrosyan are fighting for. First one uses state, bureaucratic and administrative levers in this fight, the second one influences the electorate through blandishment and promises, the expert says.

   However, many of those floating voters dislike Ter-Petrossian too and might well look towards Baghdasarian, Hovannisian and Manukian. That’s why Baghdasarian and/or Heritage supporting him is so important.

   That he has already requested a 2-week postponement of the election seems to indicate to me that Ter-Petrossian is not as confident (arrogant?) as he was when this pre-election campaign period started.

   If he is the main challenger and it looks as though a second round would be called a normal person would be looking forward to election day and not trying to delay it.
7. Onnik 02.09.08 / 10pm

   Uh oh, A1 Plus are playing the numbers game. Incidentally, full marks to the ARF-D for not putting their crowd at 100,000 during the meeting from what I can remember. Black marks to Artur Baghdasarian and Aram Sargsyan for misleading everyone at theirs.

   “THE ONLY OBSTACLE TO OVERCOME…”

   A1 Plus, 09 February, 2008

   “We have already won, wait for 10 days and you will see”, announced the Head of the “Armenian National Movement” Ararat Zurabyan and appealed to various “gallops” to look into the eyes of the participants of the meeting then make conclusions and publish the results.

   He noticed that Ter-Petrosyan returned to the great politics 6-7 months ago, but managed to do what other political actors were unable to do.

   Chairman of the “Republican” party Ararm Sargsyan added: “The man who is capable to gather 100 thousand people in any place in Armenia, has already won. The man who is able to conduct such meetings under such unbearable conditions and to gather so many people, he has already won”. Reflecting on Robert Kocharyan’s meeting with the heads of powerful structures yesterday, he said: “Kocharyan gave lessons to them, although he was to provide free and fair elections, and not get involved in Serge Sargsyan’s campaign, and call Arthur Baghdasaryan’s electorate to vote for Serge Sargsyan”, said Aram Sargsyan. He also reflected on Kocharyan’s ideas: “He speaks of good and evil. The man, who made his guards kill his schoolmate beating him violently, cannot talk of kindness”. Aram Sargsyan reminded the case of Poghos Poghosyan who was murdered in Aragast café.

   Talking about Serge Sargsyan, Aram Sargsyan noted that after 27 October 1999, when he was the Minister of the National Security and an unprecedented crime took place in country, he should not have run for presidency and should have been ashamed to come out to the street. Aram Sargsyan turned to Levon Ter-Petrosyan and said: “My dear President, there are no obstacles in this country that you cannot overcome”. Then he turned to the nation: “People, are there any difficulties that Ter-Petrosyan cannot overcome?”. “No”, responded the 100 thousand participants.

   At the end Aram Sargsyan called the nation to protect 19 February victory. “The only obstacles to be overcome in this country are Serge Sargsyan and Robert Kocharyan, whom you have defeated by your meeting”.
8. Onnik 02.10.08 / 2pm

   Regarding the RFE/RL comment from the past, this was it:

   Drongo | drongo87@altavista.com | IP: 217.113.25.82

   The British opinion poll you keep citing was fundamentally misrepresented and distorted by the Armenian regime’s propaganda machine. See the story below. Note the question which respondents were asked in reality. It was NOT about who they will vote for….[…]

   The IP address 217.113.25.82 belongs to RFE/RL’s Yerevan Bureau.

   IP Address : 217.113.25.82 [ 217.113.25.82 ]
   ISP: WEB Ltd
   Organization: Liberty
   Location: AM AM, Armenia
   City: Yerevan, 11 -
   Latitude: 40°18′11″ North
   Longitude: 44°51′36″ East

   Meanwhile, I’m still waiting for “Armen Ashughyan” to identify himself to me publicly or privately. I’d also like to point out that when in the past I’ve been critical of PanArmenian.Net or the government, it responds openly and publicly and doesn’t hide behind a pseudonym.

   And it definitely doesn’t try to manipulate or distort what I’ve actually said.
9. Armenia Election Monitor 2008 » Blog Archive » Levon Ter-Petrossian’s Final Pre-Election Campaign Meeting 02.17.08 / 3am

   […] political rallies I’ve attended in Armenia in nine years of living here, the others being Ter-Petrossian last week as well as those staged by Vahan Hovannisian and Artur Baghdasarian. For sure, in the numbers game […]

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