2008 Armenia Election Monitor

RFE/RL reports that controversy surrounding pre-election campaign meetings by the prime minister, Serge Sargsyan, continues. In particular, administrative resources and local pop stars are being used to ensure attendances at rallies, the style of campaigning favored by all the main candidates in Armenia.

Regardless, Sargsyan’s rallies are of particular concern because schoolchildren and their teachers are usually instructed to attend them. Moreover, public and private buses are usually seen parked in close proximity indicating that some attendees are transported in especially for the event.

Authorities in Armenia’s third largest city of Vanadzor provided for free public transportation, cancelled classes and suspended the work of other public institutions in an apparent effort to ensure high turnout at Prime Sarkisian’s campaign rally there on Thursday.

The effort clearly paid off, with thousands of people gathering in the main town square early in the afternoon to hear Sarkisian speak mid-way through a concert of Armenian pop singers supporting his presidential bid.

[…]

By noon classes in local schools, colleges and even kindergartens ground to a halt, with teachers and lecturers flocking to the square along with their students. “This was not done for the rally,” said Edita Vartanian, principal of the Vanadzor School No. 9. “It’s just that first-rate bands will be arriving from the capital. We just wanted to expose the kids to the spirit of the capital a little.”

The administrative measures followed what appears to have a become pattern in Sarkisian’s government-backed election campaign. Teenage students, teachers and other public sector employees have been a fixture in the prime minister’s other campaign rallies in Yerevan and other parts of the country.

In another article by RFE/RL dealing with OSCE/ODIHR EOM concerns about the use of administrative resources, Sargsyan responds to accusations that those attending are forced to. In Yerevan, for sure, there is no coercion as my son was also requested to attend a Sargsyan rally, but didn’t because his mother refused.

The prime minister also claimed that schoolteachers, students and other public sector employees are not forced to attend his campaign rallies as has been reported by the local press. “You can try and meet those people [attending Sarkisian’s rallies] and ask whether they are kept there by police or army cordons,” he said. “The reputation of Armenia’s future president is very dear to me and I will do everything in my power to ensure that Armenia’s future president has a good reputation.”

Anyway, Sargsyan’s recent rally in Komitas seemed spirited enough and that was even despite the PA system blowing up leaving the audience to believe there would be no music at all, let alone an election campaign speech. On the other hand, it couldn’t be considered anywhere near as enthusiastic or genuine as the 15-20,000 supporters that Baghdasarian attracted to Liberty Square last week. Incidentally, many of which were also bussed in from the regions.

Nevertheless, some serious concerns remain about the abuse of Sargsyan’s position as prime minister as well as other irregularities. One of those again relates to campaign spending although somewhat interestingly, despite initially hoping for western supportin his quest to return to power, former president Levon Ter-Petrossian now accuses the OSCE/ODIHR EOM of “turning a blind eye” to the pre-election campaign period.

[…] According to the Central Election Commission, it totaled 26.3 million drams ($85,000) as of January 31, well below the 70 million-dram limit set by the Electoral Code. Opposition politicians dismiss the figure as fraudulent, saying that Sarkisian could not have flooded Yerevan and just about every Armenian town and village with his campaign billboards and posters with that much money.

Even so, the OSCE/ODIHR EOM has raised it voice regarding the first signs of pre-election-related violence in Talin and Artashat.

“We will certainly investigate this incident,” Ahrens said. “We have long-term observers everywhere in the country. They will talk to all those involved and then submit a report to us. Then on that basis we can form our judgment on this incident.”

“Whoever is to blame, any such incident is deplorable,” he added.

Despite such incidents and reports of irregularities in the campaign, however, the election is so far noticeably better than that which preceded the 2003 presidential election in Armenia. Like it or not, if Levon Ter-Petrossian hoped to come to power with international support as a counter to the use of administrative resources, it doesn’t appear to be coming yet.

In part, as the pro-government Hayots Ashkhar implies, it is because the radical opposition does not actually represent an alternative to the present authorities as personified by Sargsyan.

“Hayots Ashkhar” looks at the possibility of Levon Ter-Petrosian, Artur Baghdasarian and Raffi Hovannisian setting up a “Western-oriented” electoral alliance. “Regardless of whether these three forces and their leaders will manage to realize their intention to act in a united front, such an alliance would not be able to play the role of a Western alternative to the authorities,” says the paper. “The reason for that is that Armenia’s Western partners are well aware of the impossibility of any drastic change in our country’s foreign policy.”

With less than two weeks to go until the 19 February presidential election in Armenia, this also seems to be the case for most of the electorate too, with a recent poll showing that 50.7 percent of voters would vote for Sargsyan. Ter-Petrossian is in third place with 12.6 percent to Artur Baghdasarian’s 13.4 percent. Although the survey was commissioned by pro-government Public TV H1, it was conducted by a reputable British polling organization, Populus.

It remains to be seen, however, whether speculation over Ter-Petrossian and Baghdasarian uniting with Raffi Hovannisian and Heritage’s support comes to fruition. Then what would remain to be seen is whether a united opposition candidate with diverse backing would be enough to challenge not only the administrative resources of the prime minister, but also the continuity and stability he represents to the electorate and the international community.

If initial reports and speculation are anything to go by, we should understand more about that at tomorrow’s rally by former president Levon Ter-Petrossian. With election day almost upon us, all the candidates are now entering the most critical period of the campaign to date with everything to play for. The stakes are now higher as well, with Ter-Petrossian threatening to imprison Sargsyan, Kocharian and other officials if he comes to power.

At the same time, if he doesn’t come to power, it’s unlikely that the authorities will forget or forgive all he’s said and done since returning to the political scene on 21 September 2007.

Photo: © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2008