Anyway, this makes how the decision is arrived at very important indeed, and more than that, whether the results of negotiations are first presented to Heritage members to vote on.

Even MIAK and ULP actually voted on who to support although I suppose the outcome was a forgone conclusion. Even so, for Heritage to retain some credibility as a party with a democratic structure, it should follow this approach.

VOTES THAT ARE DIVIDED AND ARE NOT DIVIDED
by Karen Kocharyan

168 Zham
Jan 29 2008
Armenia

Of course, there will be shifts in ratings [of candidates] during the presidential campaign in the Republic of Armenia. However, one month envisaged for the election campaign is very short time to achieve radical changes in the electorate’s opinion with regard to various candidates. Moreover, all candidates have efficient propaganda and anti-propaganda tools in their arsenal. [Passage omitted: election tricks which can be used during the campaign]

What will be the outcome of the presidential election in the Republic of Armenia, and particularly in Yerevan and the regions? Usually the regions mostly vote for the candidate of the authorities (all elections in the Republic of Armenia since the independence have demonstrated this), and the votes of the capital’s population are usually split between an opposition candidate and a candidate from the authorities.

[…]

At least six out of nine presidential candidates say that they will win. Such statements are of course aimed at influencing their own teams psychologically. [Passage omitted on experience of elections in Georgia and Russia]

As experienced politicians, they understand very well that they are rather weak in the regions. Especially in the former industrial cities - [second city of] Gyumri, [third city of] Vanadzor, Hrazdan [administrative centre of Kotayk Region], Charentsavan [town in Kotayk Region], Abovyan [town in Kotayk Region], Gavar [administrative centre of Gegharkunik Region], Kapan [administrative centre of Syunik Region], Kajaran [town in Syunik Region]. This is natural because all major industrial enterprises in these cities were privatized during [ex-President] Ter-Petrosyan’s time, and then came to a standstill for known reasons, and thousands of people became unemployed as a result.

It is already not important for them what was Ter-Petrosyan’s personal guilt in this process. This was obvious during Ter-Petrosyan’s visits to Hrazdan and Charentsavan, after which, according to well-informed sources, the presidential candidate expressed extreme dissatisfaction with the work of his [election] headquarters in the mentioned cities.

[…]

The situation seems to be not that hopeless for the opposition in Yerevan. However, the question is what opposition force can pin
hopes on the capital? The election practice in the newest history of the Republic of Armenia showed that when opposition does not have a single candidate, the votes of the pro-opposition electorate always split between these opposition candidates. These election will not
be an exception either.

Interestingly, while Ter-Petrossian’s team says it has won Yerevan, data released on this site by one of his campaign team instead indicated that he can count on only 22 percent. Moreover, Baghdasarian was not even listed and presumably included in the 8 percent of “others.”

A whopping 40 percent were undecided according to the poll conducted by Ter-Petrossian’s own team and therefore probably biased in favor of their candidate. With two weeks to go until the election, therefore, it has to be said that there is still everything to play for and now more than ever, Ter-Petrossian needs the support fo others such as Hovannisian.

Even then, however, that doesn’t necessarily mean he has enough votes with OYP and Heritage voters not necessarily guaranteed to vote for Ter-Petrossian. It’s probably why Ter-Petrossian is now courting Tsarukian and indirectly Prosperous Armenia. One also supposes he’ll continue trying to split the Republican party too with rumors still circulating that he’s offered positions to members in return for their support.