On The Campaign Trail: Artur Baghdasarian
It was the largest pre-election campaign meeting in Yerevan’s Liberty Square to date. The organizers say 100,000 people gathered to hear Orinats Yerkir party leader and presidential candidate Artur Baghdasarian speak, but as we know that the area in the park behind the Yerevan Opera can’t hold more than 20-25,000 maximum, that’s pretty unlikely. It was nonetheless at least as large as any rally by another presidential contender, Levon Ter-Petrossian, and probably bigger.
Of course, as we saw in last year’s parliamentary election when Heritage favored actual campaigning to gathering as many existing supporters in one place for the media to cover, numbers aren’t everything. However, opinion polls currently show Baghdasarian in second place to the prime minister as election day draws closer. Moreover, like rallies staged by nearly every other candidate to date, those supporters gathered together, as if the size of a crowd you can assemble in Liberty Square equates to actual voting on polling day, were not just from Yerevan.
Even so, the meeting was impressive. Compared to similar meetings held by Ter-Petrossian, those attending were more representative of the broad spectrum of Armenian society and for sure they were louder and more enthusiastic. Significantly, among them were many more youth. Of note compared to other candidates contesting the vote against the presidential favorite Serge Sargsyan, Baghdasarian’s Orinats Yerkir is one of only two opposition parties currently represented in the Armenian National Assembly.
The party polled 95,324 or 7.1 percent of the vote in last year’s parliamentary election.
Prior to last year’s parliamentary election and the later reappearance of Levon Ter-Petrossian to the political scene, Baghdasarian was considered the only genuine pro-Western party leader in Armenia favoring eventual EU accession and NATO membership. Moreover, although considered a populist, his party has pretty much lived up to the promises made when they entered initially entered parliament in the 2003 election. Even as National Assembly Speaker, Baghdasarian also spoke out against the violent dispersal of an opposition protest on Baghramian Avenue on 12/13 April 2004.
However, the traditional opposition and their allies in civil society as well as many media outlets dislike the young 39-year-old leader and do anything to either ignore his party as a political force or accuse it of working with the government. That was especially true last year and also for this presidential election in Armenia. Ironically, while he might be considered populist, his promises to double pensions, for example, sound positively realistic compared to Ter-Petrossian’s pledge to quadruple them. It probably doesn’t matter much to Baghdasarian, however.
The polls show him leading Ter-Petrossian at present and if staged rallies in the center are anything to go by, he can gather a far more impressive crowd. Even before the meeting started, supporters from the districts of Yerevan as well as the regions of the country gathered away from Liberty Square before marching there with banners and flags. Security was also light, and journalists were allowed complete freedom to move without restriction. Again, this is something totally different when compared to Ter-Petrossian’s rallies.
Baghdasarian’s arrival was electric, walking through the crowd and shaking hands as politicians are usually expected to do when campaigning. True, those assembled in Liberty Square were likely the party faithful, but it’s little things like this that matter. Since emerging as a political force in 2003, Baghdasarian and Orinats Yerkir have seemingly made a point of maintaining party loyalty and it appears to have worked. Those gathered were the most energetic of supporters at any of the meetings by other presidential candidates so far.
Among the banners announcing the loyalty of supporters from districts of Yerevan or the villages and regions of Yerevan, interspersed with the Armenian tricolor, the Orinats Yerkir flag and the occasional kid with a Sksela balloon, even toddlers seemed quite unlike any other child dragged along to a pre-election campaign meeting. They even appeared to be chanting in unison with the adults they accompanied. Doubtless, political activity at such a young age is not particularly welcome, but it is at least interesting to witness and certainly makes for something different.
Interestingly, despite being ahead of Ter-Petrossian in the polls and also in the numbers game when it comes to pre-election campaign meetings, the former president was reported last week to have told his own supporters that Baghdasarian is ready to join him instead. If anything, that wasn’t the impression evident today with some on stage and even in the audience shouting for Levon Ter-Petrossian to instead join Baghdasarian. Still, bloggers supporting Ter-Petrossian such as Artmika at Unzipped hope otherwise.
Whichever way it goes, both Ter-Petrossian and Baghdasarian need not only each other’s support, but also that of Raffi Hovannisian and Heritage. It seems unlikely that without reaching an agreement on a united front they could take on the might and administrative resources of the prime minister, Serge Sargsyan. Maybe the rally was staged in order for Baghdasarian to convince others he should be the united candidate or maybe it was a dignified bow out. It’s hard to say, but time will tell.
Regardless, if things might seem to be going Baghdasarian’s way in terms of the success of today’s rally, especially as many Armenians say they are not happy with the election being presented to them by the local and international media as a choice between Sargsyan or Ter-Petrossian, the young candidate also lowered the tone a little by exploiting deep resentment in society. When he wasn’t alleging that government wanted him killed, he was quite vocal in referring to Kocharian and Sargsyan as the “Karabakh Clan.”
One pro-opposition journalist said he believed Baghdasarian was actually doing so in order to take some of Ter-Petrossian’s votes away. Basically, he alleged, Baghdasarian was really working with Sargsyan. Of course, there’s no evidence to prove this, and conspiracy theories are more common that not here, but it was said. by the same token, I still know people here who think the same about Ter-Petrossian so it’s probably best not to listen to such speculation.
His campaign manager, Heghine Bisharyan, also reminds me too much of Margaret Thatcher as well, but I suppose that’s largely irrelevant. Anyway, despite his return to populist rhetoric, what was most noticeable about the two-and-a-half hour meeting was the crowd. From students to pensioners, Baghdasarian’s support base is much wider than any other. In particular, unlike rallies by Ter-Petrossian and other radical opposition groups, the number of youth, families and specifically women in the crowd was particularly refreshing.
Like it or not, this is what a real and democratic political movement actually looks like.
All in all then, a pretty successful day for Bisharyan and Baghdasarian. Of course, two weeks into the official pre-election campaign period a lot can change by election day on 19 February. Moreover, as was shown during last year’s parliamentary election, it is not how many people you can gather in Liberty Square or anywhere else for that matters which counts. It is instead the hundred of thousands of voters, and actually over a million, sitting at home currently trying to decide who to vote for.
Regardless, next up in the “let’s see how many of our supporters we can gather for the cameras in Liberty Square” game is apparently Vahan Hovannisian and the Armenian Revolutionary Federation — Dashnaktsutyun (ARF-D).
Photos: © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2008
Update
A1 Plus has posted a video of the rally:
- Published:
- 02.03.08 / 11pm by Onnik
- Category:
- 2007 Parliamentary Election, Armenia, Armenia Presidential Election 2008, Campaign, Candidates, Parties, Photojournalism, Rallies, Youth
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