On The Campaign Trail: Serge Sargsyan #3
Today saw Serge Sargsyan pre-election campaign come to my doorstep — literally. Outside my apartment building, a stage erected the night before was having the final touches put to stacks of loud speakers as a huge banner depicting the prime minister and presidential election favorite was strung across above from one lamp post to another (update: the banner was not removed after the event).
Security was also tighter than normal although it’s hard to tell whether that’s because of the shots fired first at the building housing the General Prosecutor’s Office and at two Sargsyan election campaign offices or not. Despite the extra concerns, however, security was still lighter than that surrounding the former president, Levon Ter-Petrossian. As usual, a mob of people tried to approach Sargsyan as he arrived and also as he left. Pretty much they could too.
Some controversy has been raised by Sargsyan’s campaign, and actually that of Kocharian in 2003 as well as the Republican party a few months later, and also during last year’s parliamentary election. In all three previous parliamentary and presidential elections, Armenia’s top pop stars have been paraded out to perform for the candidate or party of power. Sargsyan’s Republican party have certainly proven adept at controlling youth.
Today was no exception. From Shiker and Hayko to Susan Margaryan and her daughter, Eurovision Song Contest contestant Sirusho, it was a lineup to make any Armenian pop fan happy.
Yet, although cynics might argue that it is only such a lineup that is drawing the crowds for Sargsyan, to date very few spectators remain for the free concert after he has spoken. Today was also no different and even when the PA system literally blew up and for 20 minutes it wasn’t even certain anybody was going to hear him or the singers. Instead, a crowd made up of as many young Armenians as old, started chanting Sargsyan’s slogan, “Forwards Armenia” until the problem had been resolved.
Sargsyan’s campaign team says polls show him on target to win the 19 February presidential election with over 65 percent of the vote. Well, that’s highly suspect in many the opinion of pretty much every analyst and election observer out there, but one thing was striking about today. Although the opposition like to paint the picture of a prime minister with no support in society at all, that is clearly not the case.
Indeed, some pro-opposition journalists privately say that Sargsyan has about 30 percent genuine support in the country while Ter-Petrossian has not more than 15, but not less than 10 percent. What still remains the issue is how are the other candidates fairing, where will support from Raffi Hovannisian’s Heritage go, and can Ter-Petrossian increase his support more than whoever emerges as his main rival by election day.
On all of that, however, the jury is still out. For now at least, Sargsyan seems more confident and relaxed than ever although with a little over two weeks to go until election day, anything can happen and most probably will. My only concern is that whatever the conduct of the vote, it also runs the possibility of turning very nasty indeed as the idea of democracy went out the window long ago.
There is instead a battle brewing between those in government and those formerly in power. Indeed, while most of the population would still prefer the in between, internal and external forces continue to push for what is likely to be a showdown between the abuse of administrative resources and the politics of the street. It’s not the choice the population deserves, but who in Washington, Moscow or Yerevan cares about them?
My only fear is that it all runs the risk of turning violent. Indeed, in my opinion, civil society should already be calling for restraint rather than what it seems to be doing which is fanning the flames. Let’s see, but for now there appears to be no sign of panic at all among the government camp. Indeed, today was the most relaxed I’ve seen Sargsyan in the past six months.
Of course, some might say that appearances can be deceptive. Time will tell.
- Published:
- 02.02.08 / 11pm by Onnik
- Category:
- Armenia, Armenia Presidential Election 2008, Campaign, Candidates, Opinion, Photojournalism, Rallies, Youth
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