Alexander Iskandaryan Armenian Election Analysis

In an election analysis for Eurasian Home, the Director of Caucasus Media Institute (CMI) in Yerevan says that the 19 February presidential election will likely turn out to be a two-horse race between the prime minister, Serge Sargsyan, and former president, Levon Ter-Petrossian.

Paradoxically, however, the analyst says that this will not be because the two candidates are more popular than their other presidential rivals, but because Iskandaryan believes they are the only ones serious about taking the presidency.

Such an analysis is debatable, but regardless, Iskandaryan says that Sargsyan still occupies pole position over Ter-Petrossian. Ironically, opinion polls and conversations with voters also indicates that Ter-Petrossian’s support is lower than other candidates.

Assessing their chances is both difficult and easy. It is easy because, according to the public opinion polls, if the election was held on Sunday, January 27, Serzh Sarkisyan would win it. But as the election will take place in February, the situation can change. […]

[…]

Ter-Petrossian’s advantage is that he is a public politician. Sarkisyan is not a public politician, he is a manager and an organizer. It comes natural that they have different electoral bases and different ways to conduct the electoral campaign. Sarkisyan has a powerful tool represented by the Republican Party. […]

The parties supporting Ter-Petrossian as well as their regional networks are developed worse. But they have the leader, an impressive person. Ter-Petrossian is the first President. He took part in the revolutionary movement in Nagorno-Karabakh in the late 1980s. For ten years he, as a wise person, stayed out of politics. All in all, a fine image is taking shape.

[…]

Ter-Petrossian’s task is to turn some apathetic voters into protest ones who would vote against the authorities. This is in the interest of Ter-Petrossian who conducts his campaign against Sarkisyan. But it is extremely difficult to do within only a month. To that end, Ter-Petrossian will address social problems.

In terms of the programs of the two candidates, there are no serious divergences between them. In principle, both programs are not concrete, they read in general that the problem of Nagorno-Karabakh must be solved, the social situation must be improved, etc.

As regards the prospects of Armenia’s foreign policy after the elections, I do not expect that it will change dramatically.