???-? ????????? ??????? ? ??????? ???? ????????? ?????:
read the full news at http://www.levonforpresident.com blog:

http://www.levonforpresident.com/am/33/

However, I was thinking this morning that he usually boycotts elections because he see no point or chance of winning, but come every presidential election he stands.

exactly… why then put up his candidacy again, splitting opposition, if he is going to boycott elections or understands he has no chance winning them?

Unfortunately intelligence is not one of the merits of politicians, and its true not only for Armenia.

Don’t get me wrong, I think he’s a highly intelligent figure from what interviews I’ve read with him, and many more educated and intelligent Armenians respect him. However, I think most believe his day has gone. Then again, they thought that about Levon Ter-Petrossyan and now look what’s happened…

Still, yes, I suppose his support along with Raffi and Artur in the event that Ter-Petrossyan becomes the united opposition candidate would be vital as well.

There is so far nothing to indicate that he does, however, and I say again, Vazgen Manukyan’s warnings about “legitimizing” a Sargsyan victory ring somewhat true. Let’s face it. Attacking Levon and reminding people of what was wrong with his regime is not very difficult at all.

On the other hand, Heritage’s Stepan Safaryan said something else that was interesting the other day. That is, the election has become less predictable and I’d agree with that although think we won’t see that until the pre-election campaign is underway. Ironically, that in itself can be considered a great strive forward in terms of elections.

Ultimately, however, I still don’t believe that there is any indication that Levon Ter-Petrossian is the main opposition challenger given that his support base is made up of very minor and insignificant political parties and civil society groups. Moreover, I am not picking up any support for him among various people I interact with on a daily basis. Others tell me the same thing.

That could all change, though, and it also remains to be see how well Serge Sargsyan can conduct his campaign. Will they take it seriously or not? Time will tell. For now, Sargsyan seems to be doing all the things I’d expect of a politician with the general dislike of Ter-Petrosian favoring him at present. Even so, that possible 40 percent of undecided voters is a huge number that will swing the election depending on what they decide.

The same is true with Raffi Hovannisian, in my opinion. For now, Heritage says they will not support any candidate until they has assessed their campaign and manifestos etc. Safaryan has even pointed out that there is no one candidate that his people support. Some prefer Vazgen Manukyan, others Artur Baghdasaryan, Levon Ter-Petrossian or Vahan Hovannisyan.

I also suspect that the albeit pro-government source who told me that Raffi is waiting for assurances that Vahan Hovannisyan will not pull out of the race in support of Serge is probably correct. I dare say that Raffi will also assess the pre-election campaign success of each of the candidates he’s considering before making his decision. He’s got until 9 February to make his decision.

It’s becoming more obvious, however, that Serge must be wanting to win in a first round. That said, a second round with Levon is going to favor the prime minister if that broad opposition support isn’t there. Interestingly, however, Orinats Yerkir have said that in the event of a second round they will of course support the anti-government candidate.

It just remains to be seen whether a) a second round will occur, and b) which other candidate will get through. For now, it’s impossible to say, especially when the pre-election campaign hasn’t even started. However, it is believed that Serge is commanding a genuine lead over his nearest rivals. Meanwhile, those many undecided voters must surely be weighing up whether they hate Serge more than Levon, or vice-versa, and whether there’s an alternative to both.

Still, the pre-election campaign is going to be more interesting than any in the nine years I’ve been here. For once the electorate will be thinking and making a choice. At least we can credit Levon Ter-Petrossian’s return for that.

Saakashvili’s election in 2004 is a perfect example of that compared to his re-election last week.

However, even in a less than acceptable vote, the issue for most neutral observers is not that the opposition in Georgia won, but rather that Saakashvili was unpopular but the opposition offered no alternative.

His narrow win was slight enough with a margin of error in the exit polls to be cause for concern that a second round should have been called. I don’t think anyone believes that Gachechiladze polled enough to win.

Anyway, back to Armenia, I’ll be honest and say this. If a candidate such as Ter-Petrossyan or even Baghdasarian wins this election but the authorities falsify the vote then there will be street protests and their success will be determined by whether the opposition can finally unite.

However, at this stage it would appear that most Armenians who say they will vote DO NOT want Ter-Petrossian back in power and many are going to vote for Serge without any bribes or intimidation and that includes many Heritage supporters I’ve spoken to.

This is what Vazgen Manukyan warned against and unless Ter-Petrossian can convince the electorate otherwise, Serge might very well win without the need to engage in the kind of dirty tactics and illegalities as in 2003, 2005 and 2007.

If that happens, i.e the vote is a marked improved although still not “free and fair,” and Serge’s ratings are as high as they appear to be now (and I will say they seem to be even if voters are reluctant to support him), then the international community will not only accept the election, but also congratulate Armenia on the great steps forward its taken.

For now, that’s the situation I see. As I said, the pre-election campaign period will determine whether that’s what happens or not. And if it’s Ter-Petrossyan that you expect to see as Serge’s main challenger, the pre-election campaign period is going to be the most import part of the process of all.

I think you experienced it first hand when they had your photograph at the press conference and you didn’t notice it.

Seriously, though, the current regime has plenty of experience in voter intimidation, ballot stuffing and other illegal activities (I have first hand experience stories by electoral district committee chairmen and OSCE observers). You have seen this since moving to Armenia.

To expect a clean outcome from them is as naive as expecting normalcy after assigning a wolf to be the shepherd.

“They are putting the people in a very difficult situation because the majority of the people do not accept either party,” Manukian told a news conference. “There are people who consider Levon Ter-Petrosian the lesser evil but there are also many, many people who consider Serzh Sarkisian the lesser evil. And I don’t exclude that if Levon Ter-Petrosian and Serzh Sarkisian go into the second round Serzh Sarkisian will emerge as a legitimate president.”

Of course, I have some reservations with that as I’ve detailed before. That is, I think that the pre-election campaign is going to prove very influential in determining the outcome. Given Ter-Petrossian’s ability to win over an audience or a crowd, I think that he can’t be ruled out entirely.

Certainly, with a skillful campaign combined with free and paid airtime on Public TV, we might all be surprised.

On the other hand, I also believe that some of the other candidates can’t either. If the prime minister can campaign well, and he’s not as uncharismatic as Kocharian is, then combined with widespread dislike of the Ter-Petrossian year’s he might not even need to falsify the election.

Then again, if you view this election as being between two extreme polls with minority support, then those 40 or whatever percent of undecided voters are just praying for a candidate they like more than Serge or Levon. As I see it, this is the situation in Armenia today.

And as I’ve said before, as of the week before the pre-election campaign begins, the vast majority of voters in Yerevan that I’ve spoken to are really quite adamant that they don’t want Ter-Petrossian back as president. Indeed, even Heritage supporters say they would vote for Serge rather than allow that to happen.

Meanwhile, the counter argument to your “whitewashing the reality” is that Ter-Petrossyan’s team are trying to convince people now that the election will be falsified to justify the street protests they’re likely to hold after election day when they fail to get sufficient votes.

For now, that looks to be the situation to me, although as I’ve said, I wouldn’t discount the possibility of some surprises during the pre-election campaign. Indeed, I agree with Stepan Safaryan when he also said that it will be candidate that manages the most during this period that might surprise us all.

However, that could be any one of three, four or even five main candidates.

The only realistic action to take is to make sure that there is no ballot stuffing and the votes are counted properly after the elections.

Whitewashing the reality that Blogian describes and placing too much emphasis on dubious polls conducted by people like Sutibekian legitimizes the power grab by the regime.

This is especially true given that many Armenians say they will not vote at all, will vote against all or will vote for Sargsyan. That is why, perhaps, Gallup and ComRes polls can be considered to have a very slight margin of error while surveys such as that undertaken by A1 Plus are probably quite meaningless.

Given its partisan support for Ter-Petrossian, perhaps that’s not surprising, but it’s really about time people conducted proper surveys, and made the full results totally open and transparent.

Anyway, I think it’s wrong to say that the population knows who they will vote for. After all, the pre-election campaign has not even started yet and there’s everything to play for by all the candidates. If that happens, it doesn’t matter who wins because actually we would have had the most democratic elections in Armenia’s short history as a newly-independent state.

But, for the record, this is how the pro-radical opposition A1 Plus sees the situation in the country:

35 days are left until the upcoming presidential elections in Armenia and the majority of the RA citizens have decided who they will support during the elections. “A1+” tied to find out pre-election mood of our citizens.

Many respondents mention that they do not receive comprehensive information, since TV broadcasts are devoted to one presidential candidate, while “the other candidate is always speaking on its private channel”. Many participants of the survey mention that the election campaign has not launched yet, but students in uniforms written “We will elect Serge Sargsyan”, convince people to vote for the functioning Prime Minister. They visit the citizens in their apartments and convince them to elect Serge Sargsyan.

Vahan Sargsyan says that many candidates violate the law by beginning the campaign before of time.

Many citizens note that they do not rely on any candidate and “their aim is to enrich their private budgets”.

Karine Aslamazyan considers that the most commendable candidate is the RA First President Levon Ter-Petrosyan, since he has experience; he is a true diplomat and is intelligent.

The respondents noted that they would participate in the elections; otherwise their votes would be used in favor of the authorities’ candidate.

http://www.a1plus.am/en/?page=issue&iid=56341