Opposition Polls, Administrative Resources & Possible Campaign Violations
Writing in the comments section of a post on The Armenian Observer, Aramazd Ghalamkaryan provides details of a Yerevan-based opinion poll which shows the first president, Levon Ter-Petrossian, narrowly leading the prime minister, Serge Sargsyan, ahead of next month’s presidential election.
The information is particularly interesting given that as Aramazd is one of Ter-Petrossian’s campaign team and responsible for his official campaign site, we can perhaps take the figures as coming from an election poll conducted for Ter-Petrossian’s campaign. Basically, these are the figures that the former president is likely working with.
Onnik, believe it or not, as of today […], when it is clear that Raffi cannot run for presidency, the truth is that Ter-Petrossian is the #1 candidate for presidency. Believe it or not, but _in Yerevan_ the actual picture is as follows:
1. LTP - 22%
2. SS - 17%
3. Vahan ARFD - 8%
4. the rest - 8%
5. have not decided yet - 40%
Although the figures are not backed up with any data on methodology, information on the size of sample, or who actually conducted the poll, the statistics are still interesting and worth examining. This is especially true not only because it is often said that opposition parties or candidates do better in the capital than outside, but also because what is most striking about the results is the number of undecided voters.
Indeed, as I’ve said on this blog time and time again, it is because the majority of voters are either undecided or uninterested in the election that things become potentially more unpredictable. Basically, the pre-election campaign might well determine everything, although unconfirmed reports currently put Sargsyan’s rating at 55 percent nationally with Levon Ter-Petrossian at 10-15 percent.
If those figures are to be believed, Artur Baghdasaryan is in second place, ahead of Ter-Petrossian, but still not in a position to challenge the prime minister. However, that could all change with an effective and convincing pre-election campaign. Whichever opinion polls you choose to believe concerning which candidates are out in front, the fact of the matter is that many haven’t made their mind up yet.
This potentially makes the pre-election campaign period all the more interesting. If there is to be some progress registered in terms of democratization in Armenia, it also makes it more crucial. Effectively arguing against the increasingly tiresome and ineffective “politics of the street,” the same was said by Heritage’s Stepan Safaryan a few days ago.
According to him, the application of new working methods aims at bringing some changes to the country’s political life […]. [T]he old style cannot lead to changes. “It’s natural that one has to adopt new tactics. Ultimately, active ties between the candidates and voters, and accountability in front of the society are very essential for us. During the parliamentary election process many praised “Heritage” because we [didn’t] use gross language but [spoke] about our tasks. […] The presidential candidate who develops [their] election campaign competently will have great success”, S. Safaryan said.
Of course, whether there is progress or not, this is still the South Caucasus, and as the recent presidential election in neighboring Georgia highlighted so poignantly, old habits die hard. Gone are the days of cynical methods of falsification such as ballot box stuffing perhaps, but that doesn’t mean that the vote will be clean. Instead, methods of influencing elections have become more sophisticated and usually favor the incumbent.
Although it’s possible that the money behind some of the other candidates might materialize in the form of vote bribes, it would probably be nothing compared to what the authorities could call upon. Moreover, administrative resources and almost total control of the broadcast media is at the disposal of the prime minister. As an example, Blogian reports on allegations that public sector workers are already campaigning on behalf of Sargsyan.
We would like to ask you to vote for Serzh Sargsyan - the life is getting better and he is nice.”
The head of the Hanrapetakan (Republican) Hospital in Yerevan told a patient who happens to be my friend and an avid reader of this blog. Serzh Sargsyan is Armenia’s prime minister; the candidate that most people think will become Armenia’s next president at any price: and apparently at the price of pushing government doctors to advocate for him during treatment of patients.
After my friend told the Hanrapetakan Hosptial doctor that he wasn’t seeing her to get political advise, his next appointment wasn’t as smooth as the previous ones. The doctor was quite angry at him during the next visit.
“Another story happened in a local periodical office,” tells my friend from Yerevan. ”The head of the office asked me whether if i was going to vote for Serzh Sargsyan and I said no, I will vote for anyone but him… The boss was ready to eat me for my comment.”
Of course, it isn’t just the government candidate that is allegedly breaching the electoral code as opposition campaign worker Bekaisa reports, but also Ter-Petrossian who is not only holding pre-election campaign rallies, but having his supporters distribute flyers and DVDs as well. The Armenian Revolutionary Federation — Dashnaktsutyun’s Vahan Hovannisian might also be violating the electoral code by signing “contracts” with voters.
Ironically, none of these candidates have so far been officially registered by the Central Electoral Commission (CEC) yet so it’s hard to say whether this is technically “campaigning” or not. Perhaps it’s instead just another example of a “gray area” in legislation. For sure, the appearance of multiple pre-election campaign sites could also be considered campaigning too, but on a brighter note, their appearance has seen this blog once again influence media coverage in Armenia.
On Sunday, for example, while randomly typing in different spellings of the prime ministers name with different domains, I discovered Serge Sargsyan’s official campaign site and posted a link on this site as well as another blog. The next day, Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) posted a story based on the content of the site which was then followed up on by others such as E-channel and A1 Plus.
Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisian has made public his presidential election manifesto that promises to turn Armenia into a “strong democratic state” where all citizens are equal before law and live in an “atmosphere of mutual respect, love and indulgence.”
[…]
“We will do everything to ensure that poverty and unemployment are finally overcome in Armenia, that life of the ordinary person is made better as early as possible, that our country becomes more secure, that we live in a strong democratic state and have a just society,” reads the 10-page document posted on Sarkisian’s campaign website.
As RFE/RL here and in Prague read my blog on a daily basis it’s pretty obvious how they discovered Sargsyan’s site. Basically, they read about it first here on the Armenia Election Monitor 2008. Anyway, talking of campaign sites, the names of each of the candidates will now be spelled in the same way that they are on their sites. Just seems more appropriate especially as people might be searching for them with those specific spellings in mind.
Back to the issue of the pre-election campaign, though, and it’s worth pointing out that there are some concerns with the rigid nature of this period and how legislation expects candidates to campaign. For example, pre-election campaigns in the West start as early as a year before the actual vote. Moreover, during last year’s parliamentary election, the Head of IFES in Armenia told me that it might be more appropriate if the ceiling on campaign expenses was raised.
[M]y recommendation would be to take the [political] advertising component out of the Electoral Code. It belongs somewhere else and most countries have removed regulations on campaign advertising out and placed them under different legislation. There is also the need for the review and reform of the campaign financing regulations. The public has the right to know who is funding a particular campaign, how much has been raised for the purpose, and how much has been spent, but I believe that the law puts too low a ceiling on such spending in Armenia.
In today’s world, the cost of campaigning is higher than is allowed for by the Electoral Code, and this is a problem for all candidates and all parties. There have been changes, but there needs to be further review, in my opinion.
Although the limit on spending is meant to create a level playing ground, in practice it does not, with candidates instead spending much more than they should and not declaring it. Indeed, whether the provision under law or not is there, every political party is going to spend as much as it can. This doesn’t just apply to Armenia, incidentally, it also is the situation elsewhere. Pre-election campaign funding is a contentious issue everywhere and looks set to remain so.
The problem in Armenia is that the limits set within the law are probably unrealistic as well as unenforceable. As a result, it is just one area of the electoral code that is screaming out for reform.
Photos: © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2007-8
- Published:
- 01.15.08 / 2pm by Onnik
- Category:
- Armenia, Armenia Presidential Election 2008, Campaign, Candidates, Democracy, Legislation, Opinion Polls, Parties
I think you experienced it first hand when they had your photograph at the press conference and you didn’t notice it.
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