if you were to ask me yesterday about Ter Petrosian’s chances, I’d have said “very unlikely.” Ask me today and I’d say, “maybe” or even “very likely.”

I’ve also pointed out Observer has said pretty much the same thing after seeing Ter Petrosian.

The crowd was also more inspired - responding to the speech very enthusiastically, at least in the tight center where I was standing, and for a moment I felt inspired and elated. I felt, that it’s great after all, that Ter-Petrossian decided to come back - the political struggle has become so much more interesting by that. LTP is definitely much more charismatic and a better speaker then any of the politicians in the opposing camp - and today I felt for the first time ever, that he might actually have a chance of winning, because compared to him, Serge Sargsyan seems dull and weak to say the least.

Just one problem. He does need constant positive attention because in the cold light of day…

Now, when I soberly view the video’s I’ve made during the rally and read the text of the speech, I can’t seem to understand, why was I feeling so good about him? LTP didn’t say anything new about the accusations brought against him. Speaking of the 2007 Parliamentary elections and electoral system changes he only reiterated Nikol Pashinyan’s claims, which back in May only roused my smile. And yet, somehow, the man had full control of my emotions - I felt I want him to be president!? Charisma? Magic? Whatever it was, he will badly need a lot more of it - because I still don’t see more then 10% change of the First President’s comeback, and I see close to 0% of reasons, for him to even attempt it at this point.

Like I said, I don’t doubt what you say. I’ve experienced it, as have others. However, in 1988 he also didn’t have the amount of bad press that’s ready to be printed or a society that still remains negative or apathetic towards him in the most part and a loyal broadcast media that will remind them about the situation in Armenia during the 1990s.

It’s hard to imagine any of the other candidates able to represent well Armenia internationally, I think, but LTP does carry that image. On the other hand, while I value the fact that finally he has met with journalists — and btw: the Tigran Metz Hall at the Marriott was the fullest for a press conference I’ve ever seen — he is also arrogant at times.

Given that, and especially as he has a lot to answer for in order to “wipe the slate clean,” he should be careful. Confidence is one thing, but arrogance is quite another. On the other hand, the level of political experience and maturity is incomparable with anyone else on the scene today and he has a professional team behind him.

Like I said, he stands a chance of becoming the main opposition candidate if he can avoid being arrogant too often and if his campaign team continually learn from their successes and failures. Certainly, I think he should cease from personal attacks on Kocharian and Serzh and concentrate only on policies.

Make it personal, and there’s plenty for people to dislike and hate Levon for. Indeed, I daresay they are many more of them. I also don’t buy his reasons for not contesting the 2003 presidential election and why it’s taken a decade for him to emerge out of obscurity. His answers weren’t believable.

Anyway, be honest, keep it professional and make people think about where next for Armenia and who can lead the country in that direction and it’s another matter entirely. It’s just hard to see Serzh as presidential material in comparison.

Then again, it’s hard to see George W. Bush as presidential material, but…

There’s more to write, especially regarding the possible political team he’ll have on offer (which I think is a minus at present and especially as how he plans to form it), but anyway. Mainly though, if he weren’t hated so much by many, many Armenians, he’d really stand a chance. As it is, most dislike him immensely.

Basically, that’s what his campaign team need to address more than anything else, perhaps. Is it possible when there is plenty to attack him for? I don’t know, but remember, he will have his free air time for the campaign period on H1 and he can also (and should) buy more slots.

Anyway, if you were to ask me yesterday about Ter Petrosian’s chances, I’d have said “very unlikely.” Ask me today and I’d say, “maybe” or even “very likely.” But that’s me and not the population. Basically, the campaign for Ter Petrosian will be key and for sure, Baghdasarian is too much like a demagogue and people say Vahan Hovannisian is pretty dull as a speaker.

So much going for Ter Petrosian, but…

Probably this is my main point, and rather than try to polarize society by convincing people that either Serzh or Levon will win, let them decide after listening to both.

Damn! All this talk of polarized politics is getting to me!

Let them decide after listening to THEM ALL!!!

BTW: Observer has a post kind of on the same subject here

However, the number of people who say they would vote for Serzh to prevent Ter Petrosian returning to power is interesting to note.

On the other hand, I haven’t spoken to everyone and at the same time, the pre-election campaign is yet to officially start.

Probably this is my main point, and rather than try to polarize society by convincing people that either Serzh or Levon will win, let them decide after listening to both.

For now my point is mainly this. We don’t really know and there is no indication that Ter Petrosian has backing in society. He could have, or he could not, we’ll see.

For now, though, I don’t see it.

That’s one reason to take the polls with a grain of salt. Especially in a country like Armenia where everything is for sale.

278 OSCE/ODIHR observers to follow Armenian presidential election

10.01.2008 13:04 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Armenian Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian met Wednesday with head of the OSCE/ODIHR observation mission, Ambassador Geert Hinrich Ahrens, the RA MFA press office reported.

The Minister stressed the importance of the observation mission and said the forthcoming presidential election will confirm the fact of establishment of democracy in the republic.

For his part, Ambassador Ahrens said the observers will provide transparency of their work. 28 long term and 250 short term OSCE/ODIHR observers will arrive in Armenia.

In conclusion of the meeting Mr Oskanian wished the mission every success and confirmed the MFA’s readiness to contribute to its activities.

The one pro-opposition Aravot commissioned by a local pollster, for example, or the British ComRes who, incidentally are conducting polls in the U.K. for The Independent? Well, given that RFE/RL only focus on Gallup and Poghosian as if in a way to make its readers consider Ter Petrosian will win the election, here’s the findings of the ComRes poll once again.

67% of the Armenian population is confident that the leader of the Republican Party of Armenia, Prime Minister Serge Sargsyan will win the forthcoming presidential elections. This is evidenced by the public opinion poll conducted by the British ComRes organization.

[…]

If the poll was conducted this Sunday, 55% of the enfranchised would participate in it. 38% of the voters would cast their ballot in favor of Serge Sargsyan, 13% - for Raffi Hovhannisyan, 12%- for Arthur Baghdasaryan, 8% - Artashes Geghamyan, 6% - Levon Ter-Petrosyan, 5% - Vazgen Manukyan, 4% - Gagik Tsarukyan and 4% - Vahan Hovhannisyan. Aram Karapetyan would receive 1%.

Most of the respondents - 63% - do not believe that the opposition will get united. Only 19% hope for this.

According to the survey results, Serge Sargsyan is the best presidential candidate to deal with the problems Armenia faces. 28% consider he can best solve the issue of unemployment. 20% think Arthur Baghdasaryan can solve it. 19% trust Raffi Hovhannisyan, 6% - Levon Ter-Petrosyan and 3% - Armen Rustamyan.

The complete breakdown of the ComRes poll is available online, but I wonder, will RFE/RL ever refer to it except in such a situation when they can attempt to discredit it in favor of their preferred candidate? And yes, I’ll say it quite openly.

That’s anyone they think is able to prevent Sarkisian from gaining power — and it doesn’t matter whether that’s through democratic or non-democratic ways. For them, I’m afraid, it appears as though the end justifies the means.

My take? The only poll that matters is on election day and opinion polls are just a guide. Moreover, as the pre-election campaign hasn’t even officially started yet, although Ter Petrosian and Sarkisian have been campaigning since at least September, can’t we inject a little objectivity into proceedings and wait just one more week when the picture will be clearer?

And actually, if you want to discredit or paint another picture than that presented by a Gallup or ComRes poll, then I say again, let the opposition, and Ter Petrosian in particular, finance a poll by a reputable international pollster and release the results. Grzo has enough money and it would be a useful campaign tool.

RFE/RL can then compare government-connected pollsters with opposition-financed polls although neither side will believe the other because to be honest, democracy doesn’t matter for any of the pro-government or pro-opposition parties and media outlets.

It’s about who gets into power by any means at their disposal. Meanwhile, the actual voters are secondary and forgotten in the thirst for power.

Regarding your point about pre-election campaigns, sure, they usually start in the preceding year in the West and btw: there are some international democracy workers who believe there should be no limit on campaign expenses.

For countries such as Armenia, however, it’s meant to create a level playing ground. Obviously, it doesn’t however. As I’ve pointed out, according to Postanjian, it’s more than just MIAK who could be accused of violating the electoral code.

Then again, it seems like the opposition are more interesting in attacking the government at every possibility while overlooking the fact that the main campaign which was kicked off as early as September or October 2007 is LTP’s.

One example, election campaign manifestos would normally be released at the beginning of the pre-election campaign, no? Yet, although that won’t be until 21 January, RFE/RL reports that tomorrow’s Ter Petrosian press conference will “focus on [his] election manifesto which was made public on Monday.”

Well, all these things should be being monitored by the international election observers, one imagines, so we’ll have a verdict on that post-election. Plus, if EurasiaNet mentions the black PR employed against LTP in the pro-government press, so too should be the black PR LTP’s team are spreading through the Haykakan Zhamanak newspaper.

Interestingly, it’s been as much directed towards other opposition candidates as it has been towards Sarkisian. Remember, that some of us read the situation as being that many anti-Sarkisian voters dislike the idea of LTP returning as Serzh becoming president. Some even say they will vote for Serzh or any other candidate to prevent that from happening.

Ultimately, democratic elections are when the law applies to everyone without exception. In this case, however, it could be argued that both Serzh Sarkisian and Levon Ter Petrosian are showing no regard for it all. I remember IYC’s Chairperson telling me just before the parliamentary election that all he wants is some kind of normal election in Armenia.

Me too.