2008 Presidential Election Monitor
RFE/RL reports that the Armenian Foreign Minister, Vartan Oskanian, has warned of possible unrest following the 19 February presidential election in Armenia. Probably he has every reason to. During the May 2007 parliamentary election in Armenia, for example, the radical opposition which now supports the candidacy of former president Levon Ter Petrosian showed no sign of campaigning for the vote and instead used its rallies to prepare an albeit small number of supporters for a “democratic revolution” which never materialized.
And while the prime minister has been campaigning, the chosen method of securing votes has been through vote bribes and the questionable counting of ballots once the polls have closed. For sure, the two sides have polarized society although there is a far larger mass of people in between who would rather have stability than unrest. That’s probably one reason why May’s parliamentary election met with the approval of the international community and why opposition protests fizzled out in a matter of hours rather than days.
The situation is somewhat different for next month’s presidential election, however. Few would doubt that the grouping of various minor and even insignificant political parties behind Ter Petrosian have their last chance to make a comeback after a disastrous showing in last year’s parliamentary vote. None of them managed to secure enough votes to enter parliament. Instead, a new opposition in the form of Orinats Yerkir and Heritage was formed in the National Assembly.
Nevertheless, some are taking the possibility of street protests seriously.
Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian emphasized on Wednesday the significance of next month’s presidential election for Armenia’s international reputation and expressed concern in that regard about the possibility of post-election unrest in the country.
[…]
“I think these elections will have an even bigger impact,” Oskanian said of the presidential vote scheduled for February 19. “If we conduct them well, our positions will definitely strengthen in the international arena.”
“[…] if we hold bad elections, I can say for certain that consequences will be negative and that Armenia will lose the reputation it acquired in the past year. That will have a negative impact on our foreign policy,” he added in a warning clearly addressed to his own government.
However, unless Oskanian clearly said his remarks were addressed to his government, or an anonymous source in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs did, it is impossible to conclude who his comments were directed towards. Why not the international community, for example, who would welcome declarations from the government that they know the importance of holding “better” elections? I mean, the recent presidential vote in Georgia suggests that actually, Armenia doesn’t have too much to fear, perhaps. Really.
Or why not the electorate, many of whom are stuck in the middle of two bitter foes — Sarkisian and Ter Petrosian? Certainly, while there is every reason to be concerned that the government will again resort to the use of administrative resources and vote buying, much of the population would also rather not see the radical opposition stage street protests even in the event of a clear victory by Sarkisian. One pro-government source, for example, alleges that Ter Petrosian has already raised the possibility of a “colored revolution” in a meeting with Western diplomats at the French Embassy in Yerevan.
Ter Petrosian’s suggestion was apparently met with silence if the source is correct, but the first president reportedly told diplomats that he would take increased western media attention on the vote and his campaign as tacit approval for street protests. Again, it’s worth pointing out that this is an allegation, but on the other hand, I also have no reason to doubt my source. He also says that another more popular opposition leader, Heritage’s Raffi Hovannisian, is seeking assurances from the ARF-D that Vahan Hovannisian will not pull out of the election before the vote. Apparently, he is waiting for that before deciding who to lend his support to.
Certainly, it is interesting to note that while Hovannisian is most definitely anti-Sarkisian and has met with Ter Petrosian on a number of occasions, he has not yet come out in support of the former president. Is this significant to note?
Anyway, the problem is very real. Parts of society are very much polarized with some hoping for a third choice rather than to see the election turn into a battle where voters will have to choose the “lesser of two evils.” Veteran opposition party leader Vazgen Manukian has already warned that such a situation might actually favor Sarkisian rather than Ter Petrosian, although nothing is clear until the actual pre-election campaign gets underway.
Countering these concerns, it’s worth pointing out that EurasiaNet reports that part of Ter Petrosian’s appeal is that he is not a proponent of “revolutionary change.” Well, it has to be said. Ter Petrosian’s two main backers, Aram Sarkisian and Nikol Pashinian, most definitely are. Therefore, after Oskanian’s warning, it’s not hard to consider that street protests have already been factored in regardless of the conduct of the vote.
Although about two dozen political parties and civic organizations have endorsed Ter-Petrosian’s candidacy — most of them relatively small in numbers and in influence — it remains to be seen if he can build an effective organizational network. “He carries the bad heritage of the past … but he is a good speaker and has [lengthy] experience,” the Azg liberal daily summed up on December 25.
One thing that is working in Ter-Petrosian’s favor is the fact that he is willing to operate within the existing political system, and has not been an advocate of revolutionary change. This has enabled him to cast himself as a political moderate. “There will be no revolution. I’ll not allow violence and illegal actions from our side ” Ter-Petrosian told the Moscow-based Kommersant daily on December 6, responding to the question about his possible actions in the event of vote rigging by authorities.
In other news, one opposition Heritage MP alleges that pro-government parties are violating the electoral code by distributing leaflets in support of Sarkisian before the official campaign period begins. Interestingly, not one civil society group has raised its concern by Ter Petrosian’s team who effectively started their campaign in October with public rallies, the distribution of leaflets and DVDs, as well as setting up an official campaign web site and yesterday making their election campaign manifesto available.
Zaruhi Postanjian, an opposition parliamentarian, tells “Aravot” that the MIAK, a small party led by an aide to Sarkisian, has begun campaigning for the prime minister in violation of Armenia’s Electoral Code. Campaigning for the presidential election has still not officially started. “And yet the MIAK is already disseminating propaganda material,” says Postanjian. “Money spent on it is supposed to come from the candidate’s pre-election fund which has to be set up the day after the candidate’s registration. The Central Election Commission must definitely react to this violation.”
One rule for the opposition then, and one for government supporters? If both are violating the electoral code, both should in fact be brought to account even if actually, neither Sarkisian or Ter Petrosian’s nomination has actually been officially accepted by the Central Electoral Commission (CEC). The ARF-D’s Vahan Hovannisian too, especially now that he is “signing contracts” with voters. Yet another gray area, perhaps? And, of course, it remains to be seen how Khachatur Sukiasian’s wealth is put to use for Ter Petrosian.
Will they also keep within limits for campaign expenses? One somehow doubts it, but on a brighter note, it is worth pointing out that Yerevan is not awash with Republican and Prosperous party logos and billboards as it was before the parliamentary election. Some type of progress, perhaps?
Meanwhile, and as a matter of concern to many opposition groups as well as their supporters in civil society and the mass media, RFE/RL reports that the ruling Republican party continue to state that they believe the prime minister, Serzh Sarkisian, will win in the first round of next month’s vote. One has to wonder if they haven’t been somewhat encouraged by the Georgian president’s re-election on Saturday, but anyway, there is no indication whatsoever that Sarkisian has enough even reluctant support in society for that.
Parliament deputy Armen Ashotian said Sarkisian’s campaign team, of which he is a member, is aiming for “approximately 56-58 percent” of the vote in the first round of polling scheduled for February 19. “This is the result we want to earn our candidate in keeping with Armenian electoral legislation and international standards,” he told reporters.
Eduard Sharmazanov, the HHK spokesman who also holds a parliament seat, likewise claimed on Monday that Sarkisian’s first-round victory is “very likely.”
While Sarkisian is widely regarded, not least because of the HHK’s tight grip on many government bodies, as the election favorite, few observers think that he is popular enough to become Armenia’s next president already in the first round. Even government-connected pollsters have put his popularity at up to 35 percent.
Well, to be fair to Sarkisian, the “government-connected pollster” who RFE/RL refers to has the apparent backing of the U.S. Embassy in Armenia, and other polls have also indicated support for the prime minister at anywhere between 20-40 percent. The British ComRes, for example, which conducts polls for clients such as the BBC and The Independent, put Sarkisian at 38 percent, something which is borne out in conversations with many potential voters.
Even an opposition poll put Ter Petrosian’s support at less than 10 percent, but interestingly reported that most voters are undecided, as Unzipped explained.
According to the telephone poll commissioned by Aravot newspaper and conducted by APR group during 28 November – 1 December 2007 among 663 Yerevan residents, if elections were to be conducted in “coming Sunday” (2 December), the votes may have the following distribution:
Serj Sargsyan – 19.2%
Levon Ter-Petrosyan – 9.2%
Vazgen Manukyan – 4.4%
Artur Baghdasaryan – 2.1%
Vahan Hovhannisyan – 2%
Artashes Geghamyan – 1.4%Undecided – 31.5%
Against everyone – 18.7%Based on my subjective understanding of the situation, these numbers (especially re Serj Sargsyan and Levon Ter-Petrosyan) seem close to reality, as for today. The way ‘undecided’ will vote, would determine the outcomes of the elections. They, in turn, may be influenced by the choice of other respected politicians not participating (unfortunately!) in the election per se (Raffi Hovhannisyan), and redistribution of votes for the second round of elections, which is inevitable.
Is it somewhat telling that the opposition as well as civil society groups have not commissioned any polls by reputable international polling organizations, or if they have, are not releasing the results? That situation is intriguing to say the least. It’s also worth noting that so far there have been no news reports of Raffi Hovannisian questioning the credibility of the Gallup poll.
Instead, Heritage has used the results to show that Hovannisian has more support in society than any of the other opposition candidates, making who he decides to back of extreme significance and importance.
“Jarangutyun” (Heritage) party office informs that according to “Gallup” statistics Raffi Hovhannisian’s rating is 22 percent in spite of the fact that he is not nominated as a candidate of presidency.
The statement mainly says that 12 percent of the questioned first of all mentioned Raffi Hovhannissian as a preferable candidate. His rating even increased as compared of the index of November. To this 12 percent they add also 10 percent of the people that are ready to vote for Raffi Hovhannissian in case of their candidates’ impossible participation.
Actually, the Heritage web site has many links to the IRI/ASA/Gallup polls, indicating that whether opposition groups and their supporters in the media accept them or not, perhaps, is only based on whether the results fit in with their political ambitions and affiliation. It has nothing to do with the actual voting preferences of the electorate. It’s also worth noting that when Poghosian and the ASA conducted a poll in September last year which put Sarkisian fourth, that was okay.
Of course, Sarkisian was led only by two members of government and, drum roll please, Hovannisian. None are running in the election. What appears to have changed the situation now is what can only be considered anti-Sarkisian bias within some media outlets.
Well, Stalin or some other totalitarian leader once reportedly declared that the problem with democratic elections is that you never know who is going to win, although from examining the positions of Ter Petrosian and Sarkisian it seems that regardless of what the voters decide, neither will accept defeat. Probably, this is why the Foreign Minister is concerned, and he’s not the only one. Then again, there is no doubting Ter Petrosian’s experience so how he fares will be more dependent on how he campaigns.
One certainly can’t imagine Sarkisian being able to match his reported intellectual prowess in a televised debate, for example. If there is one, of course. It would be welcomed, but I can’t actually see Sarkisian agreeing to participate, but let’s see.
For now, though, the true standing of the candidates is uncertain, but comparing the results of the polls we have with responses from normal everyday citizens, i.e. the actual voters, they don’t seem too off the mark. That is, many will reluctantly or willingly vote for Sarkisian, and Ter Petrosian’s standing is actually very low. However, it does appear that Sarkisian does not have enough support to win in a first round and who will actually prove to be the opposition candidate will be dependent on the conduct and success of their pre-election campaigns.
Will Levon Ter Petrosian be that candidate? Actually, it’s too early to say, but potentially, a professional and well-thought out campaign might clinch it for him. Nevertheless, if this is to be a democratic election, it’s about time the media started focusing on all the main presidential candidates. Democratic elections are not just about voting day. They’re also about allowing the electorate to make an informed choice, and that rule should apply to everyone — government, radical opposition and opposition supporters in the media and civil society alike.
Instead, what we have is both Serzh Sarkisian and Levon Ter Petrosian’s team actually trying to create this situation where both are the “main candidates” even before the pre-election campaign begins. Certainly, until it begins, and especially until any opinion polls from a credible international organization even if financed by the opposition report otherwise, there is nothing to indicate that Ter Petrosian will be the main candidate. It is only the hope of some journalists and activists.
Ironically, that appears to include the media on both sides of the political divide. That in itself has got to raise many questions as to whether a real choice is on offer to the electorate.
- Published:
- 01.10.08 / 2am by Onnik
- Category:
- Armenia Presidential Election 2008, Candidates, Democracy, Media, Opinion Polls, Parties, United States
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