Levon Ter Petrosian & Armenian-Turkish Relations

While there are many reasons to criticize the situation the country found itself in under the former president, Levon Ter Petrosian, there is perhaps one area of policy which might endear himself to the international community and which could result in dramatic changes inside Armenia and the South Caucasus. That is, when it comes to foreign policy, Ter Petrosian is said to favor a concessionary peace deal with Azerbaijan to resolve the long-standing conflict over Nagorno Karabakh and normalized relations with Turkey.

When Ter Petrosian held his first pre-election public meeting in Yerevan’s Liberty Square in October, such a possibility was not lost on the international news wires. The Associated Press was particularly upbeat on the prospect for regional stability and integration.

If successful, his return to office could signal a major shift in Armenia’s fraught relations with neighbours Azerbaijan and Turkey.

Ter-Petrosian, 62, is an advocate of compromise with the two countries, which have closed their borders and imposed economic embargoes over Armenia’s support for the breakaway Azerbaijani region of Nagorny Karabakh.

[…]

Armenia needed to end its regional isolation by normalising relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey, he said.

“Until we have resolved the questions of the blockade of Armenia, relations with our neighbours and Karabakh, Armenia cannot develop and strengthen,” he said.

“As a result of the criminal policies of the current government, Azerbaijan has only toughened its position and will not seek compromise,” he added.

In December, faced with increasing attacks from the pro-government media on such a stance, Ter Petrosian reaffirmed his position. According to RFE/RL, Ter Petrosian stated that international recognition of the 1915 Armenian Genocide in neighboring Turkey was best left up to the Diaspora rather than to official Yerevan. Typical of the kind of campaigning that is underway at present, Ter Petrosian unfortunately made it personal.

“Speaking about my being pro-Turkish are individuals who had sheepishly served Turks during a lengthy period of their adult life,” Ter-Petrosian shot back in a blistering reminder of the fact that Kocharian and Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisian had held senior positions in the Communist hierarchy of Nagorno-Karabakh at a time when it was ruled by Azerbaijan.

Ter-Petrosian stressed that three generations of his family “fought against the Turks in one way or another,” recalling in particular their participation in a 1915 siege of several Armenian villages on the Turkish Mediterranean coast by Ottoman troops.

“My grandfather took part in the heroic battle of Musa Dagh; my seven-year-old father carried food and water to [Armenian] positions; while my mother was born in a cave in those days,” he told the crowd. “If French warships had not accidentally passed by the Musa Dagh coast, then I would not have existed and, to the delight of Robert Kocharian and Serzh Sarkisian, spoken from this podium today.”

“In 1966, at the age of 21, during a demonstration held on the occasion of the genocide anniversary I was arrested [by the Soviet KGB] and kept in a Yerevan jail for about a week at a time when Kocharian and Sarkisian had not even heard about the word genocide,” he said.

Indirectly referring to Azerbaijanis as Turks is hardly the right thing to do for a man believed to favor normalized relations with both countries, perhaps, but he did at least follow it up with some reasoned argument. Again, nationalists will disagree, but others such as slain ethnic Armenian Turkish newspaper editor Hrant Dink also believed in such an approach.

Ter-Petrosian said he continues to believe that genocide recognition should not have been included on Armenia’s foreign policy agenda after his resignation in 1998. “It is time to understand by setting ultimatums and cornering Turkey nobody can force it to recognize the Armenian genocide,” he said. “I have no doubts that Turkey will sooner or later recognize the Armenian genocide, but that will take place not before a normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations but after the creation of an atmosphere of neighborhood, cooperation and trust between our countries.”

[…]

“Turkey must not confuse Armenia with the Diaspora and must not resent the latter’s behavior because the Diaspora is a consequence of the genocide,” he said. “Had it not committed a genocide, there would have been no Diaspora.”

Armenia’s first post-Communist government headed by Ter-Petrosian avoided raising the genocide issue in its dealings with Turkey throughout its tenure from 1990-1998. […]

[…]

“Isn’t it clear that Armenia can neither facilitate, nor impede Turkey’s membership in the European Union?” he said. “So why on earth do we send letters to Brussels demanding that the EU does not start membership talks with Turkey or set genocide recognition as a precondition?”

“Isn’t it obvious that Turkey’s membership in the EU is beneficial for Armenia in the economic, political and security terms?” he added. “What is more dangerous: an EU member Turkey or a Turkey rejected by the West and oriented to the East?

“Or what is more preferable? An Armenia isolated from the West or an Armenia bordering the EU? Our country’s foreign policy should have clearly answered these questions a long time ago.”

To be fair to the present authorities, such an approach has also been taken by them. Both the president, Robert Kocharian, and the prime minister, Serzh Sarkisian, have repeatedly stated that they are for the establishment of diplomatic relations between Yerevan and Ankara without preconditions. However, it is Turkey, often out of sympathy with Azerbaijan, that has failed to respond to such calls. In a recent interview with Al Jazeera, for example, Sarkisian said pretty much the same thing.

Armenia’s prime minister says he is ready to negotiate with Turkey’s new government after more then 90 years of severed ties.

Serzh Sargsyan told Al Jazeera on Tuesday: “We can’t stay in a situation without having communication and talks with our neighbour because the easiest way of resolving this issue is dialogue and negotiations.”

[…]

The continuing closure of the border has isolated Armenia, which is a landlocked country, hitting the economy hard.

[…]

Armenia has only two out of four borders open.

It has stopped the economy from moving forward hundreds of millions of dollars of trade are lost every year. It is no surprise that Sargsyan wants change.

He had this message for Turkey’s newly elected government: “We didn’t choose the location of where we live and whatever happens we will have to be neighbours for a very long time. I think it would be better if Armenians and Turks come to an understanding.”

And in February, then still defense minister, Sarkisian was reported to have written something along the same lines for a European newspaper.

“Hayots Ashkhar” and “Hayastani Hanrapetutyun,” meanwhile, reprint Defense Minister Serzh Sarkisian’s extensive article that appeared in the Brussels-based weekly “European Voice.” “If Turkey lifts the blockade, my country will find itself geographically closer to Europe, something which stems from everybody’s interests,” Sarkisian wrote. “Armenia already has common interests with the European Union on a number of issues, from regional security to development of democracy. In the name of Hrant Dink’s memory, let us embark on a process of peaceful dialogue that can only be made possible by normalized relations.”

Of course, whereas Kocharian and Sarkisian could be accused of merely paying lip service to the idea of normalizing Armenian-Turkish relations — something very likely given Kocharian’s attacks on Ter Petrosian — the former president can be considered genuine in advocating this approach. Indeed, the Turkish press seems very enthusiastic indeed about a possible Ter Petrosian presidency.

The latest publication to follow the unfolding presidential race in Armenia is the Turkish Daily News, although they obviously don’t realize that Kocharian has to step down and the battle will be between Sarkisian — not Kocharian — and the first president. Likewise, it is not correct to say that Ter Petrosian is “popular,” but anyway.

Ahead of next month’s presidential elections in Armenia, a veteran Turkish diplomat expressed hope that the next leader of the neighboring country will help normalize bilateral ties instead of getting stuck in differences.

As the countdown started for the Feb. 19 polls in Armenia, there is a competitive race between the incumbent president, Robert Kocharian, and popular former President Levon Ter-Petrosian who led Armenia to independence in 1991. Many political observers in Turkey believe the election of Ter-Petrosian, who is considered a soft-liner on the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute and relations with Turkey, will contribute to rapprochement between the two countries.

Most independent observers and analysts believe that the resolution of such conflicts, and the related and unavoidable process of regional integration, are key to determining the future stability and prosperity of the South Caucasus. Of course, nationalists in each component country, as well as those on the region’s borders, disagree. Certainly, the question of Armenian-Turkish as well as Armenian-Azerbaijani relations is a key campaign issue, but with one slight caveat.

That is, the question of regional integration, conflict resolution and friendly relations between neighboring countries seems more of interest to international structures than to the electorate itself. If anything, the question of Genocide recognition and Karabakh could instead be used more to the benefit of nationalist forces inside Armenia rather than for the benefit of candidates such as Ter Petrosian.

According to one pro-government source, for example, Ter Petrosian has already promised Western ambassadors that normalizing relations with Turkey and dropping the issue of Genocide recognition would be accompanied by moves to prohibit mention of the events of 1915-17 in Armenian schools, as was once considered by Ter Petrosian’s Minister of Education, Ashot Bleyan.

Conversely, the same source also suggests that the issue of Turkey will be raised during the pre-election period through the pro-governmental mass media in such a way to cast doubts on the possibility of maintaining Armenia’s security.

Therefore, with Turkey apparently favoring a Ter Petrosian victory, it will be interesting to see how other candidates tackle the issue and more importantly, how much nationalism will be used internally within Armenia by Sarkisian to bolster his chances of an electoral win even if abroad he can be heard saying pretty much the same thing as Ter Petrosian.

Interestingly, when Sarkisian talks of finding a solution to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict as well as normalizing relations with Turkey, there’s a fine line to tread between saying one thing for an international audience and quite another for domestic political purposes. Ter Petrosian, at least, is consistent and genuine in following his convictions. It remains to be seen whether the same can be said for Sarkisian.