Therefore, what Raffi says might be very crucial indeed. Anyway, Heritage appear to recognize the split the diverse support for the party creates:

“WHO WILL “HERITAGE” AND ITS FOLLOWERS VOTE FOR?”

Panorama.am
19:35 24/12/2007

“The followers of our party form a huge amount, they consist of ultra-nationalists and ultra-liberals; so there could be a candidate between those two sections and “Heritage” party should concentrate on,” said Styopa Safaryan, the press secretary of “Heritage” party.

To the question if those 9 candidates enter the diapason of their party, he answered “I would separate just one-two candidates. Vazgen Manukyan owns national democratic ideology, thus this section of our followers could vote for him. Levon Ter-Petrosyan could be a leader for those who have more liberal and broad-minded views. And finally the next section could vote for Vahan Hovhannisyan who has national ideology.

“Heritage” party owns all the numerated qualities and for this reason our followers could vote for the mentioned candidates”.

He did not exclude that other candidates could have votes from “Heritage” followers.

It’s worth pointing out again that pro-government sources suggest that Hovannisian would be ready to support Dashnaktsutyun if guarantees are given that their candidate will not pull out of the presidential race and support Serzh Sarkisian. I guess we’ll know for sure by the time the official pre-election campaign begins next month.

Conducting methodologically sound polling in a highly politicized environment like Georgia or Azerbajian is difficult, but not impossible (and I do put Georgia and Azerbaijan in the same category in that regard– I was shocked at how polarized the pre-election environment is in Tbilisi. The pre-election atmosphere in Georgia has much more in common with Azerbaijan’s prior to the 2005 election than it does with Ukraine’s 2006 or 2007 pre-election period, which is depressing). Just like in campaign finance, disclosure is the the first and most important step to increasing public confidence in the process.

People need to understand that polling is neither good nor bad. It’s simply a tool that can be put to both legitimate and nefarious purposes. Polls are fundamentally democratic because they give ordinary people a voice, but disclosure helps an informed citizenry assess whether their voices are truly being heard or are being manipulated.

Anyway, I think that opinion polls should only be taken as a guide or at worst juse one extra bit of information to compare with the situation as experienced with discussing elections with people from ALL WALKS OF LIFE (rather than just in immediate and likely to be politically similar surrounds).

On that, the COMRES and ASA/IRI/Gallup polls seem credible when taken together because they reflect pretty much what I’m picking up in conversation with people here. However, that means that a certain amount of analysis is still required to digest the results of the polls.

Anyway, Christine’s entry and Hans’ post are all food for thought. Just one thing, Christine…

It’s ONnik and not OMnik…

ComRes is one of Europe’s leading polling companies, with a strong record of accuracy in polling elections. ComRes polls regularly for international business and media clients including The Independent newspaper, the BBC, Sky News, political parties across the European Union, and a wide range of major business and charity clients

Here’s a summary of some of the conclusions by the poll which also considers that Sarkisian leads the pack .

Serz Sargsyan is regarded by voters as the best candidate, or joint best, likely to solve Armenia’s main problems.

Except for tackling corruption, which Serz Sargsyan shares top place with Artur Baghdasaryan, he has a lead of at least 8% on this measure. This lead is particularly pronounced with respect to dealing with international issues.

On many of the issues tested, Serz Sargsyan was regarded as better able to deal with them than voters’ preferred Presidential candidate.

[…]

56% say they are certain to vote in the elections on February 19th.

55% say that if the elections were ‘this Sunday’ they ‘would definitely vote’.

The full results are available in PDF format here.

EMBASSY OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
NEWS RELEASE

1 AMERICAN AVENUE
YEREVAN, ARMENIA
TELEPHONE (+374 10) 464700
FAX (+374 10) 464742
E-MAIL: USINFO@USA.AM

December 28, 2007
ARMENIA NATIONAL STUDY

The U.S. Embassy in Armenia has watched with interest the recent press coverage generated by the “Armenian National Study” funded by the U.S. Agency for International Development.

While the Embassy is encouraged that the study has focused the attention of Armenian society and political parties on the important electoral processes underway in the country, we are nevertheless concerned by the inaccurate portrayals of the study being reported in some national media.

As part of the U.S. Government’s democracy assistance program in Armenia, the “Armenia National Study” is an opinion poll designed to be a neutral, objective mechanism to assist political parties in Armenia to better understand and respond to the major political, economic and social concerns of Armenian citizens. It is not meant to influence or predict the way in which Armenians will vote during elections.

In democratic societies, opinion polls provide citizens with a forum in which to express their views about major issues, both anonymously and objectively, to elected officials and political parties that represent their concerns. The opinion poll is also an effective aid for elected officials and political parties to develop programs and platforms that address societal concerns and national issues.

Commissioned by the International Republic Institute in 2006, the “Armenia National Study” is being carried out in Armenia by the Vilnius-based Baltic Surveys Ltd. / Gallup Organization with the assistance of the Armenian Sociological Association. It is common practice to work with local organizations in carrying out such public opinion polls.

A total of seven quarterly opinion polls have been carried out since May, 2006. The most recent poll was taken in early December, 2007. An eighth and final poll is scheduled for mid-January, 2008. Baltic Surveys Ltd. / Gallup Organization is also planning to conduct an exit poll during the presidential election on February 19, 2008.

To ensure anonymity and objectivity of the opinion poll, the Baltic Surveys Ltd. / Gallup Organization uses a random sampling methodology that is the mainstay of reputable Western polling organizations. IRI has shared the poll results, including specific information on respective political parties, with party representatives. The results of all seven polls conducted since May 2006, including more general information on the major political, economic, and social issues, are free for public examination on the IRI website (www.iri.org). Neither the United States government, the International Republican Institute nor Baltic Surveys Ltd. / Gallup Organization endorses any particular party or candidate. Non-party specific results are made public; candidate and party results are shared with the appropriate political parties.

http://www.usa.am/news/2007/december/news122807.php