Opinionated Polls? The U.S. Embassy in Armenia Responds
It’s an issue that’s been raised on this blog a few times already, but now the U.S. Embassy has finally commented on attempts to discredit opinion polls conducted by a local organization for Gallup and the International Republican Institute (IRI). The polls which show the prime minister, Serzh Sarkisian, enjoying a commanding lead over his rivals for the 19 February presidential election have obviously been attacked by candidates shown to have less support in society.
That much is normal in any democratic country. However, those media outlets and organizations sympathetic to — or supportive of — the return of the first and former president, Levon Ter Petrosian, to power have also weighed into the argument. For example, this week a number of such stories have been published quoting other candidates such as Vahan Hovannisian, Vazgen Manukian and Artur Baghdasarian as saying they question the credibility of such polls.
Of course, they would question their credibility as that is politics, and this is an election. However, journalists did not apparently approach either Gallup, IRI, or the U.S. Embassy for their reaction to the allegations of political bias. Yesterday, it seems, the U.S. Embassy finally responded, and it is at least good to see that the issue of opinion polls has been raised, that a statement was issued, and also that media outlets critical of the surveys such as A1 Plus and RFE/RL carried the news.
The polls, financed by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and commissioned by the International Republican Institute, have been conducted on a regular basis since March 2006 with the aim of gauging public opinion on key issues facing Armenia. Respondents have also been asked by pollsters from the Armenian Sociological Association (ASA), overseen by the U.S. Gallup Organization, to rate the country’s main political leaders and parties.
Interest in the surveys has grown substantially in advance of the February 19 presidential election, with politicians and media commentators discussing ratings assigned to the main election candidates. Sarkisian has emerged as by far the most popular of the candidates, leading his allies to declare that his victory in the vote is a forgone conclusion.
[…]
In a statement, the U.S. embassy dismissed the mounting criticism whipped up by the pro-opposition press. “While the Embassy is encouraged that the study has focused the attention of Armenian society and political parties on the important electoral processes underway in the country, we are nevertheless concerned by the inaccurate portrayals of the study being reported in some national media,” it said.
[…]
“Neither the United States government, the International Republican Institute nor Baltic Surveys Ltd. / Gallup Organization endorses any particular party or candidate,” the statement stressed.
The embassy also reaffirmed the USAID’s plans to finance Armenia’s first-ever exit polls on election day. Prime Minister Sarkisian was reported to have approved those plans at a December 4 meeting with Joseph Pennington, the U.S. charge d’affaires. The embassy made it clear that the exit polls would be organized by Baltic Surveys/Gallup but did not specify if the ASA would again be contracted to do the crucial fieldwork.
As I’ve stressed on this blog a few times already, the only real opinion poll that matters will be that conducted on voting day itself. Yes, it’s a cliché, but it’s a fact even in a country where international standards for democratic elections are not met. Besides, opinion polls should also only be taken as a guide and rather than attack the results, other candidates should address the underlying message which appears apparent. As usual, many voters are undecided and another sizable mass are unsure whether there is an alternative to the continuity and stability that a Sarkisian presidency would represent.
Moreover, Armenia has not yet even entered into the official pre-election campaign period and so, with Sarkisian lacking the support necessary to win in a first round, there is all to play with. Even if Sarkisian has the support of somewhere around 30 percent of the population, a greater mass has not yet decided for whom to cast their ballots or instead support opposition candidates. And as the findings of the ASA/Gallup/IRI poll is largely in keeping with responses picked up from members of the public when engaged in discussion of the presidential election, it seems more in keeping with the interests of democracy to instead take the campaign period very seriously indeed.
During that period, many factors could change the situation very dramatically indeed. Firstly, it is still uncertain who the opposition Heritage party leader, Raffi Hovannisian, will support. Secondly, while Ter Petrosian has the potential to be the main opposition candidate, he needs to do more than just stand in front of an crowd of 15,000 radical opposition supporters. He needs to campaign, answer the questions of journalists, engage in public debates with other candidates. In fact, all the other candidates need to do this. As I’ve stressed on this blog before, who the main rival for Sarkisian will be is still uncertain.
Hopefully, now the U.S. Embassy has come out and affirmed its belief in the credibility of the polls, something that also seems to be the case from speaking to Armenians from all walks of life, the other candidates including Ter Petrosian, Vahan Hovannisian, Artur Baghdasarian and Vazgen Manukian, will now attempt to appeal to the voters rather than arrogantly state that their victory is a foregone conclusion. That doesn’t mean that vote bribes won’t be handed out before election day, however, but if they are — and if people readily accept them — that’s also because the electorate has no faith or confidence in possible alternatives to Sarkisian.
So, if those candidates in opposition to Sarkisian really want to contest this election properly and stand a chance of making it into a likely second round of voting, it’s time for them to stop mud-slinging and refusing to accept that they actually so far have limited support in society. It’s time for them to campaign and take the electorate seriously for a change. Make them believe that you offer an alternative, guys, because if you don’t voters will choose continuation. That might be genuinely, reluctantly, or in return for a few thousand drams in bribes, but the underlying reason will be the same.
Simply put, the electorate can still not see an alternative to the prime minister, Serzh Sarkisian, and with less than two months to go until the 19 February presidential election in Armenia, it’s time for everyone to be aware of that fact. Meanwhile, if anyone is interested in the credibility of opinion polls in the South Caucasus, Social Science in the Caucasus has an interesting post on the problems facing such surveys and what is necessary for them to be transparent and credible. It’s also interesting to note that even a poll commissioned by a pro-opposition newspaper puts Sarkisian in the lead. Time for people to move on and deal with real election issues, methinks.
- Published:
- 12.29.07 / 11am by Onnik
- Category:
- Armenia, Armenia Presidential Election 2008, Candidates, Democracy, Exit Polls, Opinion, Opinion Polls, Parties, USAID, United States, Voting
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