2008 Presidential Election Monitor

RFE/RL reports that presidential candidate Vahan Hovannisian has questioned the reliability of opinion polls held in the run up to the 19 February presidential election. Opinion polls have long been criticized by candidates in previous elections, and especially by those who are identified as trailing their competitors. What makes this criticism more newsworthy, however, is that RFE/RL appears to be casting doubt on the integrity of Gallup and the U.S. Embassy in Armenia.

Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisian is not as popular as is claimed by pro-government pollsters, one of his election challengers representing the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (Dashnaktsutyun) said on Monday.

Deputy parliament speaker Vahan Hovannisian also echoed former President Levon Ter-Petrosian’s claim that the Armenian authorities artificially increased the number of presidential candidates to facilitate Sarkisian’s victory in the ballot scheduled for February 19.

Opinion polls conducted by the Armenian Sociological Association (ASA) and other local researchers have consistently given Sarkisian a huge lead over other election contenders. Armenian state television cited on Sunday the results of the latest, U.S.-funded poll designed by the U.S. Gallup organization and conducted by the ASA.

It said Sarkisian would garner 29 percent of the vote if the election was held this week. Opposition leader Artur Baghdasarian would come in a distant second but far ahead of other candidates with 12 percent, according to the poll.

To be honest, from speaking to many people from different walks of life in Armenia, it appears quite possible that Sarkisian could attract 29 percent of the vote. In fact, because of a lack of viable alternatives albeit in the period before the official pre-election campaign begins, the number of those Armenians that might vote for him could actually be larger. Others argue that it is considerably less.

Of course, there is still the issue of those voters who are either undecided or who see no alternative on offer to them. Even then, however, continuity and stability seem to be the watchwords for those taking interest in the election, while for others, the New Year holiday season is of far more importance. Any questions about the election are greeted with dismay or a simple shrug of the shoulders by others.

In related news, RFE/RL also reports that the first and former president Levon Ter Petrosian feels confident that he will win the February presidential election. Few others would agree with him, though, and especially because his popularity appears signififcantly less than Sarkisian. Indeed, while some Armenians say they don’t want to see the prime minister take the presidency, some have said they will vote for Sarkisian if it means preventing Ter Petrosian from returning to power.

Addressing hundreds of their activists who gathered for a one-day conference in Yerevan, Ter-Petrosian said he will be Sarkisian’s main challenger because none of the other opposition candidates has managed to muster multi-partisan support for their presidential bids. He claimed that some of them are secretly collaborating with the Armenian authorities to prevent him from returning to power.

[…]

Ter-Petrosian’s presidential bid has so far been endorsed by 17 mostly small parties strongly opposed to Armenia’s present leadership. Among those parties are the former ruling Armenian Pan-National Movement (HHSh), the radical opposition Hanrapetutyun party and the People’s Party of Stepan Demirchian, the main opposition candidate in the last presidential election. In his speech, Ter-Petrosian referred to them as his core support base.

Interestingly, none of those parties supporting Ter Petrosian are worthy of specific mention with even those arguably more popular than others lacking any real support of note in society. In particular, this means the Republic Party of Aram Sarkisian, Nikol Pashinian’s Impeachment, and Stepan Demirchian’s People’s Party. If Ter Petrosian is to stand a chance against Sarkisian, who increasingly looks set to win the election even in a “clean” vote, he needs the support of opposition heavyweights such as Raffi Hovannisian, and arguably others such as Artur Baghdasarian and Vazgen Manukian.

To date, there is no sign of any real sizable support for Ter Petrosian in Armenia although that could all admittedly change depending on the success of the official campaign he runs next month as well as the possible support of considered more influential than Aram Sarkisian, Stepan Demirchian and Nikol Pashinian. Indeed, some might argue that it is even too early to say who will be the main opposition candidate to challenge the prime minister until that campaign is well and truly underway.

This is especially true if someone like Raffi Hovannisian instead chooses to back the ARF-D candidate. Some consider that Hovannisian’s recent questionnaire was drawn up specifically to solicit an undertaking from Dashnaktsutyun not to withdraw their candidate from the election to support the prime minister instead.

Even so, and as mentioned earlier, some newspapers report that the population remains indifferent as a whole to the vote scheduled to take place in less than two months.

“Hayots Ashkhar” contends that the overwhelming majority of Armenians remain indifferent to politics and even local affairs and that “active” citizens are a small minority. “Those people are able to display fierce energy, while representing nobody except themselves,” the paper says. “Any small cohort of enthusiasts can easily declare that it is acting on behalf of a whole social stratum or class, while pursuing only its own interests. The more those activists are detached from the masses, the more aggressive they are.”

Meanwhile, until the U.S. Embassy or Gallup casts doubts over their own polls, especially as their reputations depend on their accuracy, the ASA poll probably represents a truer picture of the situation in Armenia than statements from any of the candidates as the presidential election draws closer. For sure, given that the U.S. Embassy and Gallup have a lot riding on such polls, they can certainly be taken as a guide and considered perhaps more relevant than others funded by government or opposition parties and media organizations.

Of course, as they say, the only poll that really matters is the one conducted on election day and that’s especially true given that the U.S. Embassy is also planning to support the introduction of exit polls for the 19 February vote.

Update:

Talking of taking election campaigns seriously rather than either a) act complacently or b) hope for street protests, The Armenian Observer says that at least one political party in Armenia is showing promise. Following on from their unofficial and non-binding primaries to choose a candidate, the Armenian Revolutionary Federation — Dashnaktsutyun are actually treating the electorate seemingly with some respect.

Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF-Dashnaktsutyun), are really trying their PR skills at the upcoming presidential elections. Following the first ever ‘primaries’ in Armenia held by the party on November 24-29, where anybody could come and vote, making a choice between two candidates of Dashnaktsutyun – Vahan Hovhannisyan and Armen Rustamyan, the party now has printed out 400,000 ‘contracts’ with Vahan Hovhannisyan - the ARF candidate.

According to this contract, the presidential candidate promises to make social changes, maintain political stability, contribute to the unification of Armenians in the homeland, establish social solidarity, ensure free elections.

Hopefully, more candidates will follow their example and actually talk about issues rather than personalities, and cease from engaging in mud-slinging.